Ausar Thompson
Detroit Pistons
SF
6-7
215 lb
2 yr exp
-3.4
Predictability score
80 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 9.32 | 3.76 | 3.23 | -9.5% |
| Rebounds | 6.03 | 2.05 | 2.08 | +2.8% |
| Assists | 3.14 | 1.69 | 1.65 | -1.3% |
| 3PM | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.14 | -73.3% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 5 (8.6) | 7 (6.3) | 0 (3.3) | 1 (0.1) |
| 2026-05-15 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 10 (8.4) | 9 (6.3) | 4 (3.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-05-13 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 6 (9.0) | 7 (6.4) | 5 (3.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-05-11 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 4 (8.1) | 4 (6.2) | 1 (3.5) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-05-09 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 9 (7.8) | 7 (6.4) | 5 (3.5) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-05-07 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 10 (8.0) | 7 (6.7) | 2 (3.6) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-05-05 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 11 (8.0) | 8 (6.6) | 5 (3.6) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-05-03 | vs Orlando Magic | 8 (8.8) | 4 (6.6) | 4 (3.4) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Orlando Magic | 4 (9.1) | 10 (6.3) | 6 (3.3) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-04-29 | vs Orlando Magic | 6 (9.7) | 15 (6.4) | 6 (3.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-04-27 | @ Orlando Magic | 6 (10.0) | 9 (6.1) | 1 (3.0) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-04-25 | @ Orlando Magic | 17 (9.5) | 8 (5.5) | 3 (3.0) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-04-22 | vs Orlando Magic | 11 (10.5) | 8 (5.6) | 1 (3.3) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-04-19 | vs Orlando Magic | 8 (10.5) | 7 (5.5) | 1 (3.3) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-04-12 | @ Indiana Pacers | 7 (11.0) | 5 (5.9) | 4 (3.9) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-04-10 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 12 (11.1) | 5 (5.6) | 6 (3.7) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-04-08 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 10 (11.2) | 4 (6.4) | 4 (3.9) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-04-06 | @ Orlando Magic | 8 (10.0) | 3 (5.7) | 6 (3.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-04-04 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 14 (10.9) | 5 (6.0) | 2 (3.9) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-04-02 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 7 (9.8) | 9 (5.7) | 9 (3.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-31 | vs Toronto Raptors | 5 (11.1) | 7 (5.9) | 5 (3.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-30 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 8 (9.9) | 7 (5.6) | 5 (2.7) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-28 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 6 (10.6) | 6 (5.6) | 0 (3.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-26 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 11 (11.9) | 4 (6.1) | 0 (3.8) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 18 (10.7) | 4 (5.8) | 5 (3.6) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 6 (10.7) | 5 (5.3) | 3 (3.7) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-20 | vs Golden State Warriors | 8 (10.6) | 3 (5.6) | 4 (3.4) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-19 | @ Washington Wizards | 10 (10.9) | 9 (5.7) | 3 (3.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-17 | @ Washington Wizards | 6 (11.2) | 7 (5.1) | 2 (3.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-15 | @ Toronto Raptors | 4 (9.9) | 1 (5.0) | 3 (2.9) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-05 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 0 (11.5) | 0 (5.8) | 0 (3.7) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-03-03 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 16 (10.3) | 6 (5.4) | 6 (3.7) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-01 | @ Orlando Magic | 9 (11.4) | 11 (5.2) | 3 (4.0) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-02-27 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 18 (10.7) | 8 (5.0) | 5 (4.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-02-25 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 11 (10.2) | 4 (5.5) | 7 (3.3) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-02-23 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 8 (10.8) | 4 (5.4) | 2 (3.0) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-02-21 | @ Chicago Bulls | 8 (10.5) | 3 (6.1) | 8 (2.8) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-02-19 | @ New York Knicks | 10 (10.0) | 5 (6.0) | 4 (3.1) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Toronto Raptors | 4 (10.5) | 4 (6.2) | 4 (2.6) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-02-09 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 6 (11.7) | 8 (6.2) | 2 (2.8) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2026-02-06 | vs New York Knicks | 2 (11.8) | 3 (6.3) | 1 (3.7) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Washington Wizards | 13 (11.7) | 9 (6.6) | 3 (3.3) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-02-03 | vs Denver Nuggets | 10 (11.1) | 6 (5.7) | 3 (3.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-02-01 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 9 (11.6) | 8 (6.1) | 3 (3.5) | 1 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Golden State Warriors | 7 (11.4) | 8 (6.1) | 2 (3.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-29 | @ Phoenix Suns | 6 (11.7) | 4 (6.3) | 6 (2.9) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-27 | @ Denver Nuggets | 14 (10.0) | 4 (6.1) | 1 (2.9) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-25 | vs Sacramento Kings | 5 (12.1) | 5 (6.8) | 6 (3.0) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-23 | vs Houston Rockets | 12 (9.9) | 8 (5.8) | 3 (2.8) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-21 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 12 (11.2) | 9 (6.2) | 3 (3.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-19 | vs Boston Celtics | 7 (10.9) | 7 (6.1) | 2 (3.0) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-17 | vs Indiana Pacers | 7 (12.0) | 7 (6.1) | 1 (3.4) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Phoenix Suns | 5 (12.7) | 6 (6.2) | 2 (3.5) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-10 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 6 (13.0) | 3 (6.1) | 6 (3.2) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-07 | vs Chicago Bulls | 11 (11.4) | 8 (5.7) | 3 (3.2) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-05 | vs New York Knicks | 10 (11.1) | 7 (5.5) | 1 (3.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-04 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 8 (12.7) | 8 (5.5) | 2 (3.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-01 | vs Miami Heat | 12 (13.9) | 2 (6.5) | 2 (3.6) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-30 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 7 (14.5) | 2 (5.6) | 3 (3.2) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-28 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 6 (14.8) | 6 (6.0) | 1 (3.1) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-26 | @ Utah Jazz | 8 (15.8) | 6 (5.6) | 0 (3.5) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Sacramento Kings | 19 (13.6) | 6 (5.7) | 2 (3.5) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-22 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 18 (13.1) | 12 (5.3) | 3 (3.4) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-20 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 14 (14.1) | 4 (5.7) | 2 (3.5) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 8 (13.4) | 2 (5.7) | 2 (3.4) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-15 | @ Boston Celtics | 7 (12.2) | 6 (5.7) | 0 (3.3) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2025-12-12 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 12 (13.3) | 6 (6.1) | 1 (4.0) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-06 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 13 (12.8) | 6 (6.0) | 8 (3.0) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 15 (11.9) | 4 (5.8) | 2 (3.3) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-03 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 10 (11.7) | 6 (5.3) | 5 (2.7) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-01 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 8 (12.7) | 7 (5.7) | 1 (3.3) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2025-11-29 | @ Miami Heat | 10 (11.8) | 8 (4.7) | 3 (3.1) | 0 (0.5) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Orlando Magic | 8 (12.7) | 7 (4.5) | 2 (2.8) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2025-11-26 | @ Boston Celtics | 8 (12.1) | 8 (4.9) | 2 (2.8) | 1 (0.3) |
| 2025-11-24 | @ Indiana Pacers | 13 (11.7) | 3 (4.8) | 4 (2.6) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-11-22 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 6 (11.1) | 2 (5.0) | 1 (2.2) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2025-11-09 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 14 (15.4) | 5 (5.6) | 4 (4.1) | 1 (0.5) |
| 2025-11-07 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 14 (17.5) | 6 (5.8) | 4 (4.0) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs Utah Jazz | 18 (16.7) | 7 (5.6) | 4 (4.2) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2025-11-03 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 9 (17.6) | 4 (6.1) | 1 (3.7) | 0 (1.1) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.