Bam Adebayo
Miami Heat
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.86 | 6.22 | 6.12 | +3.0% |
| Rebounds | 10.12 | 2.68 | 2.71 | -1.2% |
| Assists | 3.17 | 1.55 | 1.63 | +5.2% |
| 3PM | 1.68 | 1.25 | 1.24 | +0.3% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 25 (20.9) | 10 (9.8) | 3 (4.1) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2026-04-10 | @ Washington Wizards | 20 (21.7) | 11 (10.2) | 8 (4.4) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2026-04-09 | @ Toronto Raptors | 24 (20.7) | 11 (9.7) | 8 (3.5) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-04-07 | @ Toronto Raptors | 7 (21.8) | 9 (9.6) | 3 (3.6) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-04-04 | vs Washington Wizards | 14 (23.3) | 9 (11.4) | 7 (4.0) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2026-04-01 | vs Boston Celtics | 29 (20.8) | 10 (9.7) | 2 (3.5) | 5 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 23 (23.2) | 16 (10.6) | 6 (4.2) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-03-29 | @ Indiana Pacers | 15 (23.5) | 12 (10.7) | 3 (3.6) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 14 (22.9) | 16 (9.4) | 3 (3.7) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 17 (22.9) | 10 (9.6) | 7 (3.5) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 18 (22.8) | 3 (9.7) | 4 (3.0) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Houston Rockets | 32 (25.9) | 21 (8.5) | 4 (3.2) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-19 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 28 (26.8) | 10 (9.3) | 2 (4.0) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Orlando Magic | 20 (25.8) | 7 (8.7) | 1 (3.4) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 21 (25.5) | 8 (9.4) | 2 (3.7) | 0 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-10 | vs Washington Wizards | 83 (21.9) | 9 (9.3) | 3 (3.5) | 7 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs Detroit Pistons | 24 (20.9) | 9 (8.8) | 6 (2.7) | 4 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-06 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 24 (19.5) | 12 (8.9) | 4 (2.7) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-05 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 21 (20.8) | 7 (9.3) | 2 (2.8) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 23 (19.9) | 9 (9.5) | 4 (3.1) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-28 | vs Houston Rockets | 24 (20.0) | 11 (9.3) | 1 (3.3) | 3 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 29 (19.6) | 14 (9.1) | 3 (3.3) | 4 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-24 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 18 (19.6) | 9 (9.1) | 2 (3.3) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-21 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 13 (20.5) | 6 (9.3) | 5 (3.4) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-20 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 17 (21.5) | 8 (10.0) | 5 (3.3) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 27 (20.1) | 14 (9.2) | 4 (3.2) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Utah Jazz | 23 (21.3) | 11 (8.4) | 5 (3.4) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-08 | @ Washington Wizards | 22 (19.8) | 8 (9.5) | 3 (2.7) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-06 | @ Boston Celtics | 16 (18.9) | 7 (9.5) | 1 (3.1) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-02-03 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 16 (19.1) | 14 (9.8) | 1 (3.3) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-01 | vs Chicago Bulls | 20 (20.2) | 9 (10.0) | 3 (3.3) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-31 | vs Chicago Bulls | 21 (21.0) | 11 (9.9) | 1 (3.3) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-01-29 | @ Chicago Bulls | 20 (20.5) | 12 (9.5) | 2 (3.3) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-28 | vs Orlando Magic | 21 (20.8) | 12 (8.9) | 7 (2.9) | 4 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-25 | @ Phoenix Suns | 22 (20.6) | 7 (9.3) | 1 (3.3) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Utah Jazz | 26 (21.9) | 15 (9.4) | 2 (3.7) | 4 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-22 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 32 (19.7) | 10 (8.3) | 2 (3.6) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Sacramento Kings | 25 (19.6) | 7 (9.3) | 5 (3.7) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-19 | @ Golden State Warriors | 4 (19.1) | 12 (9.3) | 3 (3.3) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-17 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 30 (17.2) | 12 (9.1) | 4 (2.9) | 6 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Boston Celtics | 22 (16.0) | 4 (9.0) | 5 (3.2) | 3 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs Phoenix Suns | 29 (16.5) | 9 (9.3) | 4 (3.4) | 4 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 6 (16.1) | 14 (8.6) | 4 (2.8) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Indiana Pacers | 13 (18.2) | 9 (9.3) | 2 (3.0) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 7 (16.9) | 11 (8.3) | 3 (2.7) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-04 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 12 (18.9) | 6 (8.8) | 6 (3.3) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-03 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 12 (17.2) | 9 (9.1) | 4 (2.5) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-01 | @ Detroit Pistons | 15 (17.5) | 14 (8.3) | 0 (2.7) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs Denver Nuggets | 13 (18.6) | 10 (8.8) | 4 (2.9) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Toronto Raptors | 9 (17.9) | 12 (9.3) | 3 (3.2) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-21 | @ New York Knicks | 14 (18.0) | 9 (8.7) | 0 (3.0) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-19 | @ Boston Celtics | 16 (18.7) | 10 (9.2) | 4 (3.0) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 8 (19.8) | 17 (9.2) | 1 (3.2) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-15 | vs Toronto Raptors | 20 (20.9) | 10 (9.7) | 2 (2.7) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-09 | @ Orlando Magic | 19 (20.4) | 8 (9.0) | 2 (2.5) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-06 | vs Sacramento Kings | 9 (21.9) | 7 (9.7) | 3 (3.5) | 0 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Orlando Magic | 24 (20.8) | 15 (7.9) | 3 (2.3) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-03 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 21 (20.7) | 7 (9.2) | 1 (2.6) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-01 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 27 (20.9) | 14 (8.8) | 3 (3.0) | 5 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-29 | vs Detroit Pistons | 15 (20.9) | 10 (8.0) | 1 (2.8) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-26 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 17 (20.0) | 11 (7.9) | 2 (2.9) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-24 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 17 (20.3) | 6 (8.0) | 1 (3.4) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-23 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 18 (19.6) | 13 (7.1) | 1 (3.2) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-21 | @ Chicago Bulls | 18 (20.2) | 7 (7.5) | 5 (2.9) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2025-11-19 | vs Golden State Warriors | 20 (17.2) | 7 (6.2) | 3 (2.6) | 3 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-05 | @ Denver Nuggets | 2 (22.6) | 1 (8.2) | 0 (2.9) | 0 (2.2) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.