Chet Holmgren
Oklahoma City Thunder
C
7-1
213 lb
2 yr exp
Gonzaga
4.3
Predictability score
80 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 16.41 | 5.03 | 5.16 | +7.4% |
| Rebounds | 8.71 | 2.52 | 2.52 | +1.2% |
| Assists | 1.56 | 0.99 | 1.01 | +1.8% |
| 3PM | 1.16 | 1.01 | 1.0 | +1.9% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 4 (14.5) | 4 (8.6) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-05-28 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 10 (13.8) | 11 (7.6) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-05-26 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 16 (14.7) | 11 (7.8) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-05-24 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 10 (14.8) | 9 (7.7) | 2 (1.2) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-05-22 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 14 (15.8) | 3 (8.1) | 1 (1.5) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-05-20 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 13 (17.3) | 4 (9.0) | 2 (1.5) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-05-18 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 8 (18.9) | 8 (9.3) | 0 (1.6) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-05-11 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 16 (17.2) | 9 (8.5) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-05-09 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 18 (16.7) | 9 (8.6) | 1 (1.7) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-05-07 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 22 (17.1) | 9 (8.5) | 3 (1.6) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-05 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 24 (17.6) | 12 (8.8) | 1 (1.6) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-27 | @ Phoenix Suns | 24 (15.6) | 12 (8.2) | 3 (1.5) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-04-25 | @ Phoenix Suns | 10 (18.6) | 7 (8.8) | 2 (1.9) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-22 | vs Phoenix Suns | 19 (18.9) | 8 (9.2) | 0 (2.1) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-19 | vs Phoenix Suns | 16 (20.0) | 7 (9.9) | 0 (2.3) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-04-08 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 30 (16.0) | 14 (8.3) | 5 (1.5) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-07 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 15 (16.3) | 10 (7.7) | 0 (1.4) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-05 | vs Utah Jazz | 21 (16.7) | 7 (8.5) | 1 (1.9) | 4 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-02 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 7 (16.4) | 4 (8.6) | 0 (2.0) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Detroit Pistons | 13 (16.3) | 9 (8.2) | 1 (1.8) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-29 | vs New York Knicks | 16 (16.5) | 9 (7.6) | 2 (2.0) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Boston Celtics | 10 (17.0) | 5 (8.1) | 0 (1.9) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-23 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 17 (17.4) | 9 (8.3) | 4 (2.0) | 3 (1.0) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Washington Wizards | 18 (17.4) | 10 (8.9) | 0 (1.9) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 11 (17.0) | 2 (8.9) | 1 (1.7) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-17 | @ Orlando Magic | 20 (17.9) | 12 (8.3) | 1 (1.8) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-15 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 21 (18.5) | 9 (8.6) | 2 (1.9) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Boston Celtics | 14 (17.5) | 9 (9.2) | 0 (1.8) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-04 | @ New York Knicks | 28 (14.9) | 8 (9.1) | 2 (2.2) | 6 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-03 | @ Chicago Bulls | 12 (16.8) | 11 (10.0) | 2 (2.2) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-01 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 19 (17.0) | 9 (9.4) | 1 (2.2) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-27 | vs Denver Nuggets | 15 (17.9) | 21 (9.0) | 3 (2.6) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-24 | @ Toronto Raptors | 7 (17.2) | 9 (8.9) | 4 (2.3) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 17 (17.8) | 15 (8.4) | 4 (2.5) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 15 (17.9) | 7 (9.4) | 2 (2.2) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2026-02-12 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 16 (17.4) | 13 (9.2) | 4 (1.8) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Phoenix Suns | 13 (17.0) | 4 (8.6) | 2 (2.0) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-09 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 13 (17.8) | 10 (8.0) | 2 (1.9) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Houston Rockets | 17 (17.0) | 14 (7.8) | 0 (1.8) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-03 | vs Orlando Magic | 16 (17.7) | 10 (8.7) | 1 (2.2) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ Denver Nuggets | 14 (16.9) | 4 (8.7) | 1 (2.0) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-29 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 15 (18.0) | 5 (9.1) | 2 (1.7) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-27 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 20 (19.7) | 14 (9.2) | 3 (2.4) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-25 | vs Toronto Raptors | 11 (19.0) | 10 (9.1) | 0 (2.2) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-23 | vs Indiana Pacers | 25 (17.5) | 13 (8.7) | 3 (1.7) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-21 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 10 (16.7) | 7 (8.6) | 2 (1.5) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-19 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 28 (16.0) | 8 (9.1) | 2 (1.9) | 4 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-17 | @ Miami Heat | 14 (16.5) | 11 (9.2) | 2 (1.6) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-15 | @ Houston Rockets | 18 (15.6) | 9 (7.5) | 1 (1.5) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 8 (16.8) | 10 (8.5) | 0 (1.8) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-11 | vs Miami Heat | 16 (17.9) | 10 (9.3) | 2 (2.1) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-07 | vs Utah Jazz | 23 (19.5) | 12 (9.1) | 1 (2.3) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-05 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 15 (18.7) | 6 (9.0) | 2 (1.9) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-04 | @ Phoenix Suns | 18 (18.5) | 9 (8.6) | 1 (2.0) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-02 | @ Golden State Warriors | 15 (18.3) | 15 (7.7) | 4 (1.9) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-31 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 12 (18.1) | 10 (7.9) | 1 (1.5) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 24 (17.5) | 10 (8.4) | 2 (1.9) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-28 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 29 (15.8) | 9 (7.6) | 1 (1.8) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-25 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 10 (16.8) | 12 (7.1) | 2 (1.7) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 7 (17.5) | 3 (7.2) | 1 (1.5) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-19 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 14 (18.7) | 5 (7.1) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-18 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 22 (19.6) | 7 (8.3) | 2 (1.7) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-13 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 17 (19.3) | 7 (8.1) | 0 (1.7) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-10 | vs Phoenix Suns | 24 (19.0) | 8 (8.3) | 2 (2.1) | 4 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-07 | @ Utah Jazz | 25 (19.1) | 9 (7.6) | 1 (2.3) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 15 (18.2) | 8 (8.8) | 1 (2.3) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-02 | @ Golden State Warriors | 21 (17.5) | 8 (7.6) | 3 (1.9) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-30 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 19 (17.2) | 9 (7.4) | 1 (1.9) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Phoenix Suns | 23 (18.1) | 8 (7.9) | 1 (2.1) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-26 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 12 (18.6) | 9 (7.3) | 2 (1.7) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-23 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 5 (19.8) | 9 (7.5) | 4 (2.1) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-21 | @ Utah Jazz | 11 (20.2) | 3 (7.8) | 2 (2.4) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-19 | vs Sacramento Kings | 21 (19.9) | 7 (8.3) | 1 (1.9) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-17 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 26 (18.9) | 9 (7.7) | 0 (2.2) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-15 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 25 (17.6) | 8 (7.5) | 2 (1.7) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-12 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 11 (18.7) | 3 (8.1) | 1 (2.4) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-11 | vs Golden State Warriors | 23 (18.3) | 11 (7.7) | 2 (1.8) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-09 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 21 (17.4) | 7 (7.7) | 2 (2.0) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-07 | @ Sacramento Kings | 10 (19.2) | 7 (8.1) | 1 (2.7) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-04 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 11 (22.6) | 5 (9.7) | 3 (2.4) | 0 (2.1) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.