Cody Williams
Utah Jazz
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 11.85 | 5.23 | 5.56 | +14.6% |
| Rebounds | 3.85 | 2.0 | 2.07 | +8.3% |
| Assists | 2.98 | 1.53 | 1.65 | +11.7% |
| 3PM | 0.51 | 0.71 | 0.58 | -19.5% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 14 (12.5) | 3 (3.4) | 6 (3.6) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-04-10 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 14 (15.3) | 3 (4.6) | 5 (4.5) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2026-04-07 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 19 (13.1) | 4 (3.7) | 5 (4.3) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-04-05 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 8 (12.3) | 4 (3.6) | 5 (3.8) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-04-03 | @ Houston Rockets | 27 (12.4) | 11 (3.5) | 4 (3.9) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-04-01 | vs Denver Nuggets | 9 (14.5) | 2 (3.7) | 9 (3.7) | 1 (0.8) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 26 (13.4) | 6 (3.6) | 4 (3.9) | 0 (0.7) |
| 2026-03-28 | @ Phoenix Suns | 0 (13.9) | 2 (3.4) | 2 (3.7) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Denver Nuggets | 24 (13.7) | 0 (3.6) | 7 (2.8) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Washington Wizards | 24 (14.6) | 4 (4.6) | 1 (3.5) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-21 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 15 (12.8) | 0 (3.9) | 3 (3.9) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-03-19 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 23 (13.1) | 3 (4.6) | 5 (3.6) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 7 (13.1) | 5 (4.2) | 2 (3.2) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-15 | @ Sacramento Kings | 34 (12.4) | 7 (4.2) | 7 (3.2) | 3 (0.9) |
| 2026-03-13 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 19 (9.4) | 7 (3.6) | 3 (2.9) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-11 | vs New York Knicks | 10 (9.3) | 2 (3.6) | 5 (2.5) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-09 | vs Golden State Warriors | 12 (9.6) | 3 (3.6) | 7 (2.4) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-03-07 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 13 (9.2) | 11 (3.3) | 2 (1.9) | 1 (0.8) |
| 2026-03-05 | @ Washington Wizards | 13 (8.2) | 3 (3.2) | 7 (2.0) | 1 (0.8) |
| 2026-03-04 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 9 (8.2) | 6 (3.3) | 3 (2.3) | 1 (0.6) |
| 2026-03-02 | vs Denver Nuggets | 3 (9.5) | 1 (3.3) | 1 (2.2) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2026-02-28 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 4 (10.7) | 2 (3.7) | 2 (2.4) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-02-26 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 6 (10.0) | 3 (3.2) | 1 (2.2) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-02-23 | @ Houston Rockets | 2 (7.5) | 0 (3.0) | 0 (1.7) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-02-20 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 5 (8.3) | 9 (3.4) | 2 (1.6) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-02-12 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 9 (8.4) | 2 (3.6) | 3 (1.8) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-02-05 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 5 (10.4) | 4 (3.5) | 2 (1.9) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Indiana Pacers | 14 (9.2) | 6 (3.0) | 3 (1.8) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ Toronto Raptors | 10 (8.5) | 2 (3.1) | 0 (2.0) | 1 (0.8) |
| 2026-01-30 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 6 (9.5) | 2 (3.4) | 1 (2.0) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-27 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 11 (9.2) | 2 (3.1) | 0 (2.0) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-24 | vs Miami Heat | 5 (10.0) | 1 (3.8) | 1 (2.2) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-22 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 12 (8.7) | 7 (3.4) | 3 (1.8) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-20 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 8 (8.7) | 3 (3.3) | 1 (1.8) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-19 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 5 (9.1) | 3 (3.5) | 0 (1.8) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-17 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 11 (10.1) | 4 (4.0) | 2 (1.7) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-15 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 13 (9.0) | 6 (3.4) | 0 (1.5) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-14 | @ Chicago Bulls | 6 (9.2) | 7 (3.1) | 2 (1.6) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-12 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 8 (9.4) | 3 (3.3) | 2 (1.9) | 2 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-10 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 15 (8.5) | 2 (3.0) | 0 (1.6) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-08 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 8 (8.6) | 3 (2.9) | 4 (1.4) | 0 (1.2) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.