Cooper Flagg
Dallas Mavericks
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.87 | 7.09 | 7.18 | +8.3% |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 2.12 | 2.17 | +1.0% |
| Assists | 4.7 | 1.97 | 2.03 | +6.0% |
| 3PM | 1.02 | 0.98 | 0.88 | -5.2% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs Chicago Bulls | 10 (24.7) | 4 (7.7) | 1 (5.6) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-10 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 33 (22.7) | 6 (7.0) | 5 (4.6) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-08 | @ Phoenix Suns | 11 (24.0) | 11 (6.8) | 6 (5.0) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-07 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 25 (23.0) | 9 (6.5) | 2 (4.7) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-05 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 45 (23.2) | 8 (6.4) | 9 (4.9) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-03 | vs Orlando Magic | 51 (23.4) | 6 (6.6) | 3 (4.9) | 6 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-31 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 19 (21.2) | 10 (7.0) | 3 (4.5) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 12 (22.3) | 4 (6.3) | 1 (4.8) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 24 (21.6) | 3 (6.3) | 2 (5.5) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Denver Nuggets | 26 (22.2) | 8 (6.3) | 7 (5.7) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs Golden State Warriors | 32 (21.9) | 4 (6.5) | 9 (5.8) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-21 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 18 (21.4) | 10 (5.8) | 8 (5.7) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-18 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 17 (21.5) | 6 (6.9) | 5 (5.8) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-16 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 21 (21.7) | 7 (6.2) | 8 (5.6) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-15 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 27 (19.0) | 6 (6.3) | 10 (5.1) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-13 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 25 (19.6) | 4 (6.1) | 5 (5.1) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-12 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 13 (20.9) | 6 (6.6) | 7 (5.4) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-10 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 14 (20.3) | 12 (6.4) | 5 (5.4) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-08 | @ Toronto Raptors | 17 (20.2) | 8 (6.4) | 6 (5.3) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-06 | @ Boston Celtics | 16 (19.2) | 8 (5.8) | 6 (4.5) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-05 | @ Orlando Magic | 18 (15.2) | 5 (4.5) | 6 (3.5) | 1 (0.9) |
| 2026-02-10 | @ Phoenix Suns | 27 (22.5) | 5 (7.2) | 2 (5.1) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-07 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 14 (23.4) | 4 (7.4) | 4 (4.8) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 32 (22.6) | 6 (7.2) | 4 (5.1) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-03 | vs Boston Celtics | 36 (20.9) | 9 (7.4) | 6 (4.8) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Houston Rockets | 34 (20.6) | 12 (5.9) | 5 (4.4) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-29 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 49 (20.9) | 10 (6.1) | 3 (4.3) | 3 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-24 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 16 (20.3) | 7 (5.4) | 6 (3.9) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-22 | vs Golden State Warriors | 21 (20.4) | 11 (5.8) | 2 (4.0) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-19 | @ New York Knicks | 18 (18.5) | 7 (4.7) | 3 (3.8) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-14 | vs Denver Nuggets | 6 (19.3) | 1 (5.3) | 1 (4.8) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-12 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 27 (18.9) | 5 (6.2) | 5 (4.8) | 2 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Chicago Bulls | 11 (18.9) | 1 (6.6) | 2 (4.7) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-08 | @ Utah Jazz | 26 (20.3) | 10 (6.0) | 8 (5.3) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ Sacramento Kings | 20 (18.8) | 8 (6.0) | 6 (5.3) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-03 | vs Houston Rockets | 10 (20.0) | 7 (5.6) | 6 (4.9) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-01 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 12 (20.8) | 7 (6.5) | 7 (5.0) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-29 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 15 (20.4) | 6 (6.0) | 8 (4.5) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Sacramento Kings | 23 (21.3) | 6 (6.4) | 5 (4.9) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-25 | @ Golden State Warriors | 27 (20.5) | 6 (6.4) | 5 (4.6) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Denver Nuggets | 33 (20.5) | 9 (5.6) | 9 (4.4) | 4 (0.9) |
| 2025-12-22 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 16 (21.8) | 6 (6.1) | 6 (4.8) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 24 (20.6) | 4 (6.0) | 3 (4.3) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-18 | vs Detroit Pistons | 23 (21.4) | 10 (5.6) | 4 (4.0) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-15 | @ Utah Jazz | 42 (20.7) | 7 (5.7) | 6 (4.0) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-12 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 22 (20.6) | 5 (6.3) | 8 (3.7) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2025-12-06 | vs Houston Rockets | 19 (20.0) | 5 (5.6) | 3 (3.9) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 16 (18.2) | 2 (6.1) | 2 (3.5) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-03 | vs Miami Heat | 22 (19.6) | 6 (6.9) | 2 (4.3) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Denver Nuggets | 24 (18.5) | 8 (5.9) | 2 (3.7) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2025-11-29 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 35 (17.4) | 8 (6.6) | 2 (4.1) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-28 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 13 (16.8) | 7 (5.5) | 11 (3.6) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-24 | @ Miami Heat | 12 (17.4) | 7 (6.2) | 3 (3.7) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-22 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 12 (17.5) | 7 (5.9) | 1 (3.7) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-21 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 29 (16.9) | 7 (6.0) | 5 (3.9) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-17 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 15 (16.7) | 1 (6.0) | 2 (3.5) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-16 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 21 (17.1) | 8 (6.8) | 5 (4.1) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-14 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 16 (17.3) | 5 (6.8) | 0 (4.3) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-12 | vs Phoenix Suns | 16 (15.7) | 6 (6.7) | 6 (4.0) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-10 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 26 (15.3) | 9 (6.4) | 4 (3.2) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Washington Wizards | 12 (15.4) | 7 (6.8) | 6 (3.4) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-07 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 12 (16.1) | 6 (6.3) | 2 (2.9) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 20 (17.5) | 9 (5.9) | 2 (3.9) | 1 (1.6) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.