Dean Wade
Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 5.73 | 3.77 | 3.66 | +9.4% |
| Rebounds | 4.22 | 1.64 | 1.68 | +2.8% |
| Assists | 1.27 | 1.08 | 1.06 | +3.1% |
| 3PM | 1.25 | 0.95 | 0.89 | +1.3% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | vs New York Knicks | 0 (6.7) | 2 (4.3) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-21 | @ New York Knicks | 3 (6.0) | 3 (4.2) | 3 (1.3) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-19 | @ New York Knicks | 10 (5.6) | 5 (3.9) | 3 (1.3) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-15 | vs Detroit Pistons | 3 (5.2) | 3 (3.7) | 0 (1.3) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-13 | @ Detroit Pistons | 0 (5.5) | 6 (3.5) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-11 | vs Detroit Pistons | 0 (6.0) | 5 (3.4) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-09 | vs Detroit Pistons | 3 (6.3) | 1 (3.5) | 0 (1.6) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-05-07 | @ Detroit Pistons | 8 (6.3) | 5 (3.6) | 0 (1.4) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-05 | @ Detroit Pistons | 5 (6.1) | 3 (3.6) | 1 (1.4) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-03 | vs Toronto Raptors | 5 (7.4) | 4 (4.2) | 1 (1.5) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-04-26 | @ Toronto Raptors | 7 (6.3) | 5 (4.1) | 0 (1.3) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-23 | @ Toronto Raptors | 5 (6.4) | 5 (4.0) | 0 (1.4) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-20 | vs Toronto Raptors | 3 (6.9) | 5 (3.7) | 1 (1.4) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-18 | vs Toronto Raptors | 5 (6.8) | 3 (4.1) | 1 (1.5) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-10 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 3 (8.4) | 3 (4.7) | 0 (1.6) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-08 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 8 (10.4) | 4 (4.5) | 2 (2.0) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-24 | vs Orlando Magic | 2 (8.2) | 1 (4.2) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 7 (9.1) | 5 (4.3) | 3 (1.7) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-19 | @ Chicago Bulls | 0 (9.4) | 7 (5.0) | 1 (1.8) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2026-03-17 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 9 (9.1) | 2 (5.1) | 2 (1.5) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-15 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 12 (7.8) | 5 (5.1) | 0 (1.6) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-13 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 3 (7.8) | 0 (5.2) | 1 (1.5) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-11 | @ Orlando Magic | 0 (8.9) | 5 (4.9) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-09 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 13 (7.8) | 10 (4.3) | 2 (2.3) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs Boston Celtics | 7 (7.9) | 3 (5.0) | 0 (2.2) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-25 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 0 (8.2) | 4 (4.5) | 4 (1.5) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs New York Knicks | 11 (7.0) | 8 (4.2) | 3 (1.5) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-22 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 0 (6.9) | 3 (4.1) | 1 (1.2) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-20 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 8 (8.2) | 4 (4.5) | 0 (1.5) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-19 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 11 (9.4) | 5 (4.4) | 0 (1.9) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2026-02-04 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 5 (9.1) | 3 (4.2) | 3 (1.5) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 6 (7.7) | 3 (4.6) | 1 (1.6) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Phoenix Suns | 3 (8.6) | 4 (4.7) | 0 (1.7) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-28 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 11 (8.6) | 5 (4.0) | 2 (1.9) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-26 | vs Orlando Magic | 6 (7.7) | 7 (3.9) | 2 (1.7) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Orlando Magic | 10 (8.2) | 3 (3.8) | 1 (1.6) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-23 | vs Sacramento Kings | 6 (9.8) | 5 (4.5) | 1 (2.6) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-21 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 4 (8.7) | 9 (3.7) | 4 (1.7) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-19 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 0 (9.1) | 2 (4.1) | 0 (1.7) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ Indiana Pacers | 3 (9.3) | 1 (4.6) | 0 (2.0) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-31 | vs Phoenix Suns | 5 (10.4) | 5 (4.3) | 2 (2.1) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-29 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 10 (8.8) | 5 (4.0) | 0 (1.9) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Houston Rockets | 6 (8.2) | 3 (4.0) | 1 (1.6) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-25 | @ New York Knicks | 6 (8.6) | 4 (4.6) | 2 (1.8) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 11 (10.5) | 5 (5.0) | 4 (2.2) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-22 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 14 (10.1) | 7 (5.3) | 2 (2.1) | 4 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-19 | vs Chicago Bulls | 2 (9.8) | 5 (5.4) | 1 (2.4) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-17 | @ Chicago Bulls | 2 (9.2) | 2 (4.8) | 1 (1.9) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-14 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 14 (9.6) | 8 (4.7) | 2 (2.0) | 3 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Indiana Pacers | 9 (8.5) | 2 (4.4) | 3 (1.8) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ Miami Heat | 8 (8.9) | 3 (3.8) | 2 (2.5) | 2 (2.0) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.