Deandre Ayton
Los Angeles Lakers
C
7-0
250 lb
7 yr exp
Arizona
7.4
Predictability score
76 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 11.95 | 5.67 | 5.84 | +12.4% |
| Rebounds | 8.21 | 3.22 | 3.25 | +2.4% |
| Assists | 0.8 | 0.89 | 0.76 | -10.9% |
| 3PM | 0.0 | 0.02 | 0.0 | -152236994247.0% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 6 (12.1) | 3 (10.0) | 1 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-05-09 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 10 (12.1) | 6 (10.3) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-05-07 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 (11.2) | 10 (9.7) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-05-05 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 10 (10.6) | 12 (9.2) | 2 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Houston Rockets | 7 (11.5) | 16 (8.5) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-29 | vs Houston Rockets | 18 (12.9) | 17 (8.4) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-26 | @ Houston Rockets | 19 (11.3) | 10 (8.0) | 0 (1.0) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-24 | @ Houston Rockets | 2 (13.4) | 6 (7.9) | 2 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-21 | vs Houston Rockets | 6 (14.4) | 5 (8.1) | 1 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-18 | vs Houston Rockets | 19 (14.0) | 11 (8.2) | 2 (1.0) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-12 | vs Utah Jazz | 22 (15.1) | 10 (8.3) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-10 | vs Phoenix Suns | 10 (15.1) | 5 (8.0) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-09 | @ Golden State Warriors | 21 (13.2) | 5 (8.1) | 1 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-07 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 3 (13.1) | 3 (8.0) | 0 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-05 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 13 (12.6) | 4 (8.2) | 1 (1.0) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-02 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 8 (11.3) | 1 (8.4) | 0 (1.0) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-31 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 18 (12.1) | 9 (9.0) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Washington Wizards | 12 (12.9) | 7 (9.3) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-27 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 9 (12.9) | 7 (8.7) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-23 | @ Detroit Pistons | 13 (11.2) | 10 (7.6) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Orlando Magic | 9 (13.0) | 12 (8.2) | 1 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-19 | @ Miami Heat | 6 (13.4) | 4 (8.6) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Houston Rockets | 16 (11.1) | 4 (8.0) | 2 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-16 | @ Houston Rockets | 7 (12.1) | 11 (8.3) | 0 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Denver Nuggets | 9 (13.4) | 9 (9.0) | 2 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Chicago Bulls | 23 (12.2) | 10 (9.2) | 1 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-10 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 14 (10.2) | 12 (7.8) | 2 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs New York Knicks | 6 (11.2) | 8 (8.4) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-05 | @ Denver Nuggets | 0 (11.3) | 2 (8.2) | 0 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 13 (13.5) | 8 (8.6) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Sacramento Kings | 12 (13.3) | 4 (8.9) | 2 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Golden State Warriors | 4 (13.5) | 10 (8.6) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Phoenix Suns | 2 (13.6) | 4 (8.5) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Orlando Magic | 21 (12.9) | 13 (8.8) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs Boston Celtics | 4 (12.4) | 7 (8.9) | 1 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 13 (12.0) | 7 (8.9) | 1 (1.0) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 6 (12.3) | 10 (8.8) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 10 (13.7) | 6 (8.7) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 7 (13.1) | 8 (8.3) | 3 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ New York Knicks | 13 (13.3) | 5 (8.1) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Washington Wizards | 28 (12.1) | 13 (8.7) | 3 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 10 (11.0) | 4 (8.3) | 2 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-26 | @ Chicago Bulls | 6 (13.6) | 2 (9.3) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 9 (13.9) | 11 (8.8) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-22 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 4 (14.4) | 5 (9.2) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Denver Nuggets | 4 (15.0) | 8 (9.4) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-18 | vs Toronto Raptors | 25 (14.2) | 13 (9.3) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 12 (14.5) | 6 (8.9) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 17 (14.4) | 18 (9.6) | 1 (1.7) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-12 | @ Sacramento Kings | 13 (14.1) | 13 (8.5) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-09 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 4 (14.9) | 5 (9.0) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 9 (13.8) | 6 (8.2) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 18 (14.2) | 11 (8.5) | 3 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-04 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 15 (13.9) | 8 (8.9) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-01-02 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 4 (13.3) | 6 (9.4) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-30 | vs Detroit Pistons | 10 (13.8) | 2 (8.1) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-28 | vs Sacramento Kings | 11 (15.2) | 11 (9.6) | 2 (1.8) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-25 | vs Houston Rockets | 10 (14.3) | 2 (9.4) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Phoenix Suns | 12 (14.5) | 10 (9.7) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-14 | @ Phoenix Suns | 20 (13.8) | 13 (8.8) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-10 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 11 (14.9) | 8 (9.3) | 1 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-07 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 14 (14.8) | 12 (8.9) | 2 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Boston Celtics | 6 (15.5) | 10 (8.8) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-04 | @ Toronto Raptors | 17 (14.4) | 8 (8.5) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-01 | vs Phoenix Suns | 12 (15.4) | 9 (8.7) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-30 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 22 (16.1) | 12 (8.4) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 17 (14.8) | 8 (9.2) | 2 (1.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-23 | @ Utah Jazz | 2 (17.3) | 3 (9.0) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-18 | vs Utah Jazz | 20 (16.8) | 14 (8.6) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-15 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 20 (16.0) | 10 (8.9) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-14 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 20 (16.1) | 16 (8.3) | 2 (1.8) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 6 (15.4) | 5 (7.7) | 1 (1.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-10 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 14 (16.7) | 6 (7.7) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 11 (16.8) | 5 (7.7) | 0 (1.8) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 22 (14.5) | 10 (6.6) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-03 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 29 (15.4) | 10 (7.4) | 2 (2.4) | 0 (0.0) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.