DeMar DeRozan
Sacramento Kings
SF
6-6
220 lb
16 yr exp
USC
5.1
Predictability score
70 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.23 | 7.62 | 7.85 | +12.2% |
| Rebounds | 2.81 | 1.47 | 1.42 | -1.9% |
| Assists | 4.1 | 1.96 | 1.98 | +2.3% |
| 3PM | 0.63 | 0.84 | 0.73 | -12.7% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 9 (20.0) | 0 (3.1) | 0 (5.1) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-04-03 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 14 (20.5) | 2 (3.2) | 5 (5.4) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-04-01 | @ Toronto Raptors | 28 (19.1) | 1 (3.2) | 4 (5.0) | 2 (0.6) |
| 2026-03-28 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 22 (17.7) | 4 (3.5) | 3 (5.0) | 1 (0.6) |
| 2026-03-26 | @ Orlando Magic | 33 (18.4) | 6 (3.2) | 11 (5.0) | 0 (0.7) |
| 2026-03-24 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 7 (19.1) | 4 (3.2) | 5 (4.5) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-03-22 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 10 (20.8) | 0 (3.4) | 8 (5.2) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-03-19 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 13 (20.9) | 3 (3.3) | 5 (4.9) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2026-03-17 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 2 (21.7) | 1 (3.4) | 1 (4.7) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-03-15 | vs Utah Jazz | 41 (20.9) | 4 (3.3) | 11 (4.7) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-14 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 27 (19.5) | 0 (3.3) | 7 (3.8) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-03-11 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 39 (16.8) | 4 (3.1) | 6 (3.7) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-03-10 | vs Indiana Pacers | 12 (17.1) | 3 (3.2) | 1 (4.6) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-05 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 15 (18.0) | 2 (3.2) | 2 (5.3) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs Phoenix Suns | 17 (16.6) | 2 (3.2) | 1 (5.0) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-03-01 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 9 (17.7) | 4 (3.0) | 8 (5.0) | 1 (0.6) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 7 (18.4) | 2 (3.2) | 5 (4.6) | 0 (0.7) |
| 2026-02-25 | @ Houston Rockets | 15 (17.4) | 1 (2.8) | 7 (4.0) | 0 (0.7) |
| 2026-02-23 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 19 (17.9) | 2 (3.0) | 4 (4.5) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-21 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 20 (17.1) | 1 (3.3) | 5 (3.6) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-02-19 | vs Orlando Magic | 13 (16.8) | 3 (3.4) | 6 (3.7) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Utah Jazz | 20 (18.9) | 3 (3.4) | 1 (4.4) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-09 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 8 (18.1) | 1 (3.7) | 1 (4.3) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 13 (17.7) | 2 (3.4) | 3 (4.4) | 2 (0.8) |
| 2026-02-06 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 5 (20.1) | 5 (3.4) | 1 (4.4) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-04 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 20 (21.1) | 3 (3.6) | 5 (4.6) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ Washington Wizards | 32 (19.7) | 2 (3.7) | 5 (4.5) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Boston Celtics | 6 (18.9) | 1 (3.4) | 2 (4.1) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-01-29 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 25 (19.5) | 4 (3.4) | 8 (4.4) | 1 (0.5) |
| 2026-01-27 | @ New York Knicks | 34 (17.0) | 5 (3.3) | 0 (4.3) | 1 (0.7) |
| 2026-01-25 | @ Detroit Pistons | 16 (17.4) | 0 (3.0) | 4 (4.0) | 0 (0.7) |
| 2026-01-23 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 20 (18.7) | 4 (3.3) | 3 (4.4) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-01-21 | vs Toronto Raptors | 9 (20.6) | 1 (3.7) | 2 (5.0) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-01-20 | vs Miami Heat | 23 (20.5) | 4 (3.9) | 5 (4.8) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-18 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 14 (21.1) | 2 (3.6) | 7 (4.6) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-01-16 | vs Washington Wizards | 17 (21.1) | 2 (3.7) | 4 (4.6) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-14 | vs New York Knicks | 27 (19.5) | 6 (3.7) | 5 (4.5) | 1 (0.8) |
| 2026-01-12 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 32 (18.8) | 2 (3.1) | 6 (4.7) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-11 | vs Houston Rockets | 22 (18.1) | 2 (3.2) | 6 (4.1) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-09 | @ Golden State Warriors | 24 (17.5) | 2 (3.8) | 3 (4.0) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-06 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 21 (18.0) | 2 (4.2) | 5 (4.8) | 3 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-04 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 11 (18.0) | 4 (4.0) | 3 (4.7) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-02 | @ Phoenix Suns | 13 (19.7) | 2 (3.7) | 3 (4.9) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-01 | vs Boston Celtics | 25 (19.9) | 5 (3.8) | 6 (5.1) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-30 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 8 (19.6) | 7 (3.8) | 3 (4.5) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-28 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 22 (20.1) | 4 (3.2) | 5 (4.4) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-27 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 9 (21.0) | 4 (3.8) | 6 (4.8) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Detroit Pistons | 37 (17.9) | 3 (3.1) | 8 (3.8) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-21 | vs Houston Rockets | 27 (17.9) | 4 (3.3) | 9 (3.1) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2025-12-20 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 15 (18.7) | 5 (3.8) | 1 (3.6) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 33 (17.3) | 4 (4.0) | 3 (3.4) | 3 (1.0) |
| 2025-12-14 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 17 (17.6) | 4 (3.8) | 3 (2.8) | 1 (0.9) |
| 2025-12-11 | vs Denver Nuggets | 11 (18.0) | 3 (3.6) | 1 (3.1) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2025-12-08 | @ Indiana Pacers | 20 (17.7) | 5 (3.6) | 3 (3.4) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Miami Heat | 13 (19.0) | 6 (3.5) | 6 (3.7) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2025-12-03 | @ Houston Rockets | 12 (18.6) | 2 (3.0) | 0 (3.7) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-11-30 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 23 (18.8) | 1 (3.4) | 4 (4.0) | 3 (0.6) |
| 2025-11-28 | @ Utah Jazz | 16 (18.0) | 2 (3.1) | 3 (4.1) | 1 (0.6) |
| 2025-11-26 | vs Phoenix Suns | 10 (18.4) | 3 (3.3) | 3 (4.3) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2025-11-24 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 33 (17.3) | 0 (3.7) | 4 (3.7) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2025-11-22 | @ Denver Nuggets | 17 (16.7) | 7 (3.2) | 5 (3.4) | 0 (0.5) |
| 2025-11-20 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 7 (17.8) | 0 (3.7) | 2 (3.7) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-19 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 17 (15.9) | 3 (3.0) | 5 (2.9) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-11-16 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 27 (16.3) | 2 (3.8) | 4 (3.0) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-14 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 6 (19.1) | 3 (3.9) | 5 (3.0) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-12 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 4 (20.1) | 2 (3.5) | 2 (3.3) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-11 | vs Denver Nuggets | 18 (20.9) | 1 (3.4) | 2 (3.3) | 2 (1.2) |
| 2025-11-09 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 22 (22.3) | 3 (4.3) | 2 (3.5) | 3 (1.0) |
| 2025-11-07 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 18 (21.4) | 4 (3.7) | 3 (3.4) | 4 (0.7) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs Golden State Warriors | 25 (21.2) | 2 (3.8) | 2 (4.0) | 0 (0.4) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.