Derik Queen
New Orleans Pelicans
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 13.44 | 5.99 | 6.01 | +9.8% |
| Rebounds | 8.08 | 2.71 | 2.91 | +7.2% |
| Assists | 4.58 | 2.11 | 2.17 | +4.8% |
| 3PM | 0.33 | 0.51 | 0.43 | -1.1% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 30 (14.5) | 22 (8.4) | 4 (4.2) | 1 (0.3) |
| 2026-04-10 | @ Boston Celtics | 25 (13.0) | 11 (7.5) | 4 (4.0) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2026-04-07 | vs Utah Jazz | 17 (14.0) | 12 (7.8) | 7 (4.5) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2026-02-21 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 10 (13.4) | 9 (7.6) | 0 (4.1) | 1 (0.5) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 18 (13.5) | 9 (8.6) | 4 (4.0) | 0 (0.5) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Miami Heat | 12 (13.5) | 5 (7.5) | 0 (4.5) | 1 (0.6) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Sacramento Kings | 8 (15.0) | 5 (8.1) | 1 (5.2) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2026-02-06 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 17 (13.7) | 8 (7.6) | 3 (4.5) | 4 (0.5) |
| 2026-02-04 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 6 (13.2) | 3 (7.9) | 7 (4.7) | 0 (0.5) |
| 2026-02-02 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 16 (13.9) | 8 (7.4) | 3 (4.2) | 1 (0.4) |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 9 (13.6) | 6 (7.6) | 2 (4.7) | 1 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-30 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 22 (12.9) | 9 (7.8) | 7 (4.9) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2026-01-27 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 9 (12.1) | 7 (7.4) | 1 (4.2) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-25 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 4 (13.3) | 4 (7.5) | 1 (4.5) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-23 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 8 (12.9) | 9 (8.0) | 5 (4.9) | 0 (0.5) |
| 2026-01-21 | vs Detroit Pistons | 5 (12.9) | 4 (7.7) | 8 (4.6) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-18 | @ Houston Rockets | 15 (12.9) | 4 (7.6) | 5 (4.5) | 1 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-16 | @ Indiana Pacers | 14 (13.7) | 12 (8.5) | 3 (4.7) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-14 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 4 (13.6) | 6 (8.9) | 4 (5.2) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs Denver Nuggets | 10 (13.4) | 13 (8.3) | 5 (5.1) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Orlando Magic | 10 (14.3) | 3 (8.5) | 6 (5.0) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2026-01-09 | @ Washington Wizards | 14 (13.9) | 16 (8.6) | 12 (4.6) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 6 (13.4) | 10 (8.5) | 2 (5.2) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2026-01-06 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 10 (15.4) | 13 (7.8) | 8 (5.0) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2026-01-04 | @ Miami Heat | 13 (14.7) | 6 (8.2) | 4 (4.4) | 0 (0.5) |
| 2025-12-31 | @ Chicago Bulls | 9 (15.1) | 7 (8.2) | 4 (4.9) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs New York Knicks | 7 (15.1) | 9 (8.1) | 5 (4.5) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-27 | vs Phoenix Suns | 21 (15.5) | 11 (8.1) | 3 (4.5) | 2 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-26 | vs Phoenix Suns | 7 (14.7) | 7 (8.7) | 2 (5.0) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 21 (14.4) | 7 (7.9) | 5 (4.5) | 2 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-22 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 19 (15.7) | 10 (8.1) | 6 (4.8) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-12-20 | vs Indiana Pacers | 17 (15.2) | 10 (8.2) | 4 (5.3) | 1 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-18 | vs Houston Rockets | 16 (14.9) | 12 (7.0) | 3 (4.7) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-14 | @ Chicago Bulls | 4 (15.8) | 8 (7.5) | 6 (5.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-11 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 17 (15.5) | 5 (7.5) | 7 (4.9) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-08 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 33 (13.3) | 10 (7.0) | 10 (4.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 6 (13.9) | 9 (6.5) | 5 (4.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-04 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 12 (13.3) | 4 (6.2) | 5 (3.8) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-02 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 21 (12.7) | 8 (6.3) | 6 (3.6) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-30 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 15 (13.6) | 7 (6.1) | 3 (4.4) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-11-29 | @ Golden State Warriors | 2 (15.3) | 3 (7.0) | 0 (4.7) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-11-26 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 10 (16.1) | 2 (7.8) | 9 (4.7) | 0 (0.5) |
| 2025-11-24 | vs Chicago Bulls | 8 (16.1) | 5 (8.4) | 4 (4.3) | 0 (0.4) |
| 2025-11-22 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 20 (15.5) | 9 (9.1) | 3 (4.6) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-21 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 20 (14.5) | 7 (8.0) | 11 (3.9) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-11-19 | vs Denver Nuggets | 30 (12.6) | 9 (7.3) | 4 (3.1) | 1 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-17 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 9 (12.3) | 8 (6.9) | 3 (3.6) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-11-16 | vs Golden State Warriors | 9 (13.3) | 7 (7.7) | 6 (3.3) | 0 (0.2) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.