Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland Cavaliers
SG
6-3
215 lb
8 yr exp
Louisville
5.3
Predictability score
83 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.47 | 6.89 | 7.17 | +7.8% |
| Rebounds | 4.71 | 1.98 | 1.98 | +2.9% |
| Assists | 5.19 | 1.91 | 1.83 | -3.0% |
| 3PM | 3.12 | 1.33 | 1.36 | +1.7% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | vs New York Knicks | 31 (25.4) | 4 (4.6) | 1 (5.1) | 5 (2.8) |
| 2026-05-23 | vs New York Knicks | 23 (25.0) | 1 (4.7) | 4 (4.9) | 3 (2.9) |
| 2026-05-21 | @ New York Knicks | 26 (25.8) | 4 (4.5) | 1 (4.5) | 2 (3.0) |
| 2026-05-19 | @ New York Knicks | 29 (25.7) | 5 (4.6) | 3 (4.6) | 4 (3.0) |
| 2026-05-17 | @ Detroit Pistons | 26 (26.5) | 6 (4.2) | 8 (4.6) | 2 (2.9) |
| 2026-05-15 | vs Detroit Pistons | 18 (26.8) | 4 (4.3) | 3 (4.7) | 2 (3.1) |
| 2026-05-13 | @ Detroit Pistons | 21 (26.4) | 4 (4.2) | 3 (4.4) | 1 (3.0) |
| 2026-05-11 | vs Detroit Pistons | 43 (25.1) | 5 (3.9) | 2 (4.7) | 4 (2.9) |
| 2026-05-09 | vs Detroit Pistons | 35 (24.5) | 10 (3.7) | 4 (4.7) | 2 (2.9) |
| 2026-05-07 | @ Detroit Pistons | 31 (23.8) | 6 (3.7) | 3 (4.4) | 2 (2.8) |
| 2026-05-05 | @ Detroit Pistons | 23 (23.5) | 4 (3.5) | 2 (4.3) | 4 (2.8) |
| 2026-05-03 | vs Toronto Raptors | 22 (25.3) | 3 (4.4) | 1 (5.2) | 2 (3.0) |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Toronto Raptors | 24 (25.7) | 5 (4.2) | 2 (5.1) | 2 (3.1) |
| 2026-04-29 | vs Toronto Raptors | 19 (27.1) | 5 (4.3) | 3 (5.3) | 3 (3.1) |
| 2026-04-26 | @ Toronto Raptors | 20 (26.2) | 6 (4.3) | 3 (5.0) | 4 (2.9) |
| 2026-04-23 | @ Toronto Raptors | 15 (27.4) | 5 (4.5) | 3 (5.3) | 1 (3.0) |
| 2026-04-20 | vs Toronto Raptors | 30 (28.1) | 7 (4.2) | 5 (5.3) | 4 (2.9) |
| 2026-04-18 | vs Toronto Raptors | 32 (28.5) | 3 (5.1) | 4 (5.8) | 4 (2.8) |
| 2026-04-08 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 31 (26.1) | 7 (4.7) | 4 (6.0) | 1 (3.0) |
| 2026-04-05 | vs Indiana Pacers | 38 (25.9) | 6 (5.0) | 6 (6.1) | 2 (2.9) |
| 2026-04-02 | @ Golden State Warriors | 25 (26.5) | 6 (4.5) | 3 (5.6) | 4 (2.9) |
| 2026-03-31 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 10 (27.0) | 3 (4.0) | 6 (5.4) | 0 (3.0) |
| 2026-03-30 | @ Utah Jazz | 34 (27.5) | 2 (4.3) | 5 (5.8) | 3 (3.1) |
| 2026-03-27 | vs Miami Heat | 6 (27.7) | 4 (5.0) | 6 (5.8) | 0 (2.9) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Miami Heat | 28 (28.3) | 6 (4.5) | 4 (5.9) | 4 (3.2) |
| 2026-03-24 | vs Orlando Magic | 42 (26.3) | 2 (4.2) | 3 (5.8) | 3 (3.0) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 27 (26.7) | 7 (4.1) | 3 (6.2) | 3 (3.0) |
| 2026-03-17 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 19 (26.5) | 8 (4.6) | 3 (5.8) | 1 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-15 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 26 (26.7) | 1 (4.8) | 11 (6.1) | 4 (3.1) |
| 2026-03-13 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 24 (26.4) | 2 (4.5) | 8 (5.7) | 1 (2.9) |
| 2026-03-11 | @ Orlando Magic | 25 (25.2) | 5 (4.4) | 5 (5.3) | 4 (2.9) |
| 2026-03-09 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 17 (27.4) | 3 (5.1) | 6 (6.3) | 0 (3.2) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs Boston Celtics | 30 (27.5) | 7 (4.7) | 5 (5.4) | 3 (3.1) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs New York Knicks | 23 (27.3) | 5 (4.1) | 4 (5.8) | 2 (3.1) |
| 2026-02-22 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 20 (26.9) | 7 (3.8) | 5 (5.1) | 0 (3.0) |
| 2026-02-20 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 32 (27.8) | 3 (4.3) | 4 (5.3) | 2 (3.2) |
| 2026-02-19 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 17 (28.4) | 3 (4.4) | 5 (6.5) | 2 (3.3) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Washington Wizards | 30 (28.1) | 3 (4.5) | 5 (6.6) | 2 (3.2) |
| 2026-02-09 | @ Denver Nuggets | 32 (27.8) | 1 (4.0) | 10 (5.7) | 3 (3.3) |
| 2026-02-07 | @ Sacramento Kings | 35 (28.3) | 2 (4.0) | 4 (6.1) | 2 (3.2) |
| 2026-02-04 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 29 (28.0) | 5 (3.9) | 9 (5.9) | 3 (3.5) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 14 (28.9) | 0 (4.6) | 9 (6.3) | 2 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Phoenix Suns | 16 (28.9) | 3 (4.6) | 6 (5.9) | 3 (3.2) |
| 2026-01-28 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 25 (29.4) | 5 (3.8) | 5 (6.5) | 3 (3.5) |
| 2026-01-26 | vs Orlando Magic | 45 (28.3) | 4 (4.2) | 4 (6.4) | 5 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Orlando Magic | 36 (27.3) | 5 (4.1) | 9 (5.9) | 2 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-23 | vs Sacramento Kings | 33 (27.6) | 5 (4.5) | 8 (6.4) | 5 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-21 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 24 (27.4) | 3 (4.7) | 6 (5.7) | 2 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-19 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 (27.0) | 4 (4.9) | 3 (5.7) | 1 (3.5) |
| 2026-01-16 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 13 (27.7) | 9 (4.8) | 12 (5.4) | 4 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-14 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 35 (27.1) | 7 (5.1) | 9 (5.5) | 5 (3.2) |
| 2026-01-12 | vs Utah Jazz | 21 (30.0) | 3 (5.0) | 2 (6.6) | 4 (3.7) |
| 2026-01-10 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 28 (28.4) | 3 (5.5) | 8 (5.8) | 4 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-08 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 30 (26.9) | 7 (4.8) | 8 (5.4) | 2 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-04 | vs Detroit Pistons | 30 (27.5) | 6 (4.6) | 3 (5.4) | 3 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-02 | vs Denver Nuggets | 33 (27.1) | 6 (4.9) | 5 (5.8) | 5 (3.2) |
| 2025-12-31 | vs Phoenix Suns | 34 (26.1) | 10 (4.6) | 7 (5.6) | 4 (3.1) |
| 2025-12-29 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 10 (26.7) | 2 (4.3) | 7 (5.2) | 2 (3.4) |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Houston Rockets | 16 (27.3) | 3 (4.3) | 6 (5.2) | 2 (3.4) |
| 2025-12-25 | @ New York Knicks | 34 (26.8) | 7 (4.3) | 6 (5.4) | 4 (3.6) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 27 (29.1) | 4 (4.5) | 4 (6.6) | 2 (3.8) |
| 2025-12-22 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 30 (27.6) | 4 (4.9) | 5 (6.2) | 6 (3.7) |
| 2025-12-17 | @ Chicago Bulls | 32 (27.5) | 1 (4.6) | 5 (6.0) | 4 (3.8) |
| 2025-12-14 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 17 (29.1) | 2 (5.4) | 7 (6.0) | 1 (3.7) |
| 2025-12-12 | @ Washington Wizards | 48 (28.0) | 4 (5.7) | 4 (6.1) | 8 (3.3) |
| 2025-12-06 | vs Golden State Warriors | 29 (27.9) | 4 (5.4) | 3 (6.1) | 7 (3.3) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 28 (28.7) | 2 (5.3) | 8 (6.1) | 1 (3.8) |
| 2025-12-03 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 33 (28.2) | 5 (5.8) | 5 (6.0) | 3 (3.7) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Indiana Pacers | 43 (26.8) | 9 (5.3) | 6 (6.1) | 4 (3.6) |
| 2025-11-30 | vs Boston Celtics | 18 (28.0) | 7 (5.3) | 8 (5.5) | 3 (3.7) |
| 2025-11-28 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 42 (26.2) | 3 (5.3) | 3 (5.9) | 7 (3.5) |
| 2025-11-24 | @ Toronto Raptors | 17 (28.2) | 1 (4.6) | 8 (5.4) | 3 (3.6) |
| 2025-11-23 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 37 (29.4) | 8 (5.1) | 6 (6.0) | 5 (3.4) |
| 2025-11-21 | vs Indiana Pacers | 32 (29.6) | 9 (5.1) | 5 (6.5) | 4 (3.5) |
| 2025-11-19 | vs Houston Rockets | 21 (29.1) | 3 (4.7) | 2 (6.2) | 3 (3.6) |
| 2025-11-17 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 37 (29.1) | 5 (5.3) | 7 (6.0) | 4 (3.6) |
| 2025-11-15 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 30 (28.9) | 5 (5.4) | 5 (6.0) | 4 (3.7) |
| 2025-11-13 | vs Toronto Raptors | 31 (27.9) | 6 (5.0) | 6 (5.8) | 2 (4.0) |
| 2025-11-10 | @ Miami Heat | 28 (28.0) | 15 (4.2) | 8 (5.6) | 3 (4.1) |
| 2025-11-08 | vs Chicago Bulls | 29 (28.1) | 6 (3.6) | 6 (5.7) | 5 (4.3) |
| 2025-11-07 | @ Washington Wizards | 24 (26.9) | 5 (3.8) | 5 (5.8) | 4 (3.8) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 46 (26.0) | 4 (3.4) | 8 (6.0) | 6 (3.6) |
| 2025-11-02 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 37 (24.7) | 2 (3.2) | 5 (5.5) | 8 (3.1) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.