Harrison Barnes
San Antonio Spurs
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 10.8 | 5.73 | 5.54 | +7.5% |
| Rebounds | 3.02 | 1.68 | 1.65 | -1.0% |
| Assists | 2.07 | 1.34 | 1.41 | +4.9% |
| 3PM | 1.87 | 1.39 | 1.34 | -2.1% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | vs Indiana Pacers | 12 (11.9) | 4 (3.9) | 1 (2.3) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-03-19 | vs Phoenix Suns | 6 (12.3) | 1 (4.2) | 3 (2.4) | 0 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-17 | @ Sacramento Kings | 16 (12.3) | 4 (3.8) | 3 (2.2) | 4 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-05 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 19 (9.8) | 1 (3.4) | 3 (1.8) | 5 (2.0) |
| 2026-02-01 | vs Orlando Magic | 7 (10.1) | 5 (3.2) | 1 (2.3) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Houston Rockets | 9 (9.5) | 1 (3.2) | 1 (1.7) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-25 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 5 (11.5) | 1 (3.2) | 3 (2.6) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-22 | @ Utah Jazz | 2 (11.9) | 1 (3.3) | 1 (2.4) | 0 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Houston Rockets | 6 (9.3) | 2 (3.0) | 1 (1.9) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-19 | vs Utah Jazz | 10 (12.3) | 1 (3.3) | 4 (2.5) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-17 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 8 (11.1) | 8 (2.9) | 0 (2.4) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 6 (11.5) | 0 (3.1) | 3 (2.4) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-13 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 2 (10.5) | 0 (3.0) | 1 (2.1) | 0 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 13 (11.4) | 1 (3.1) | 4 (1.9) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Boston Celtics | 6 (11.8) | 1 (3.7) | 3 (2.2) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-07 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 7 (12.9) | 0 (3.4) | 6 (2.4) | 0 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 2 (11.9) | 3 (3.6) | 1 (2.0) | 0 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-03 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 14 (11.5) | 4 (3.9) | 1 (2.3) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-02 | @ Indiana Pacers | 5 (13.2) | 3 (4.1) | 0 (2.6) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-31 | vs New York Knicks | 7 (12.8) | 6 (3.6) | 4 (2.2) | 0 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 3 (13.4) | 4 (3.8) | 3 (2.1) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-27 | vs Utah Jazz | 3 (13.8) | 2 (3.4) | 2 (2.3) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-25 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 15 (11.3) | 6 (3.2) | 1 (1.6) | 3 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 20 (12.3) | 1 (3.3) | 0 (1.9) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-21 | @ Washington Wizards | 14 (13.3) | 1 (3.8) | 2 (2.1) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-19 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 7 (13.1) | 4 (3.3) | 0 (2.2) | 1 (2.5) |
| 2025-12-18 | vs Washington Wizards | 2 (14.2) | 1 (4.0) | 2 (2.8) | 0 (2.3) |
| 2025-12-13 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 6 (13.3) | 4 (3.5) | 5 (1.9) | 0 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-10 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 16 (14.8) | 3 (3.7) | 1 (2.5) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2025-12-08 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 24 (15.5) | 2 (4.2) | 1 (2.7) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 7 (13.9) | 4 (4.3) | 3 (2.2) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2025-12-03 | @ Orlando Magic | 11 (15.1) | 5 (3.6) | 2 (2.3) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-02 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 31 (14.4) | 5 (4.0) | 5 (2.1) | 7 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-30 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 5 (14.1) | 5 (3.7) | 0 (1.9) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-28 | @ Denver Nuggets | 10 (13.4) | 3 (3.4) | 5 (1.9) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2025-11-26 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 13 (13.8) | 5 (3.7) | 0 (2.3) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-23 | @ Phoenix Suns | 11 (14.3) | 3 (3.7) | 3 (2.0) | 0 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-20 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 16 (13.8) | 5 (4.1) | 2 (2.2) | 2 (2.5) |
| 2025-11-18 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 23 (13.0) | 5 (3.6) | 3 (1.9) | 4 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-16 | vs Sacramento Kings | 20 (12.9) | 2 (3.6) | 3 (2.3) | 3 (2.6) |
| 2025-11-14 | vs Golden State Warriors | 7 (12.7) | 4 (3.9) | 1 (2.2) | 1 (2.6) |
| 2025-11-12 | vs Golden State Warriors | 11 (11.4) | 2 (3.7) | 0 (2.1) | 3 (2.6) |
| 2025-11-10 | @ Chicago Bulls | 7 (13.1) | 3 (3.5) | 2 (2.1) | 1 (3.0) |
| 2025-11-08 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 15 (12.7) | 2 (3.7) | 0 (2.9) | 3 (2.8) |
| 2025-11-07 | vs Houston Rockets | 24 (10.6) | 5 (2.8) | 2 (2.3) | 6 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-05 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 14 (12.1) | 6 (2.9) | 3 (2.8) | 4 (2.3) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.