Jaden McDaniels
Minnesota Timberwolves
PF
6-9
185 lb
5 yr exp
Washington
4.3
Predictability score
79 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 14.84 | 5.3 | 5.43 | +6.8% |
| Rebounds | 4.47 | 1.85 | 1.86 | +1.9% |
| Assists | 2.75 | 1.17 | 1.19 | -0.7% |
| 3PM | 1.3 | 1.17 | 1.07 | -5.6% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 13 (14.0) | 1 (4.8) | 3 (2.6) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-12 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 17 (15.4) | 6 (4.7) | 2 (2.5) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2026-05-10 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 14 (15.8) | 6 (4.8) | 0 (2.7) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 17 (15.3) | 7 (5.3) | 2 (2.6) | 3 (1.3) |
| 2026-05-06 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 12 (14.7) | 3 (5.2) | 4 (2.1) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-05-04 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 16 (14.7) | 5 (5.2) | 2 (2.2) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-30 | vs Denver Nuggets | 32 (15.3) | 10 (5.2) | 3 (2.6) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-27 | @ Denver Nuggets | 13 (14.0) | 3 (4.9) | 1 (2.4) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-25 | vs Denver Nuggets | 12 (15.8) | 8 (5.0) | 3 (2.7) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-23 | vs Denver Nuggets | 20 (16.6) | 10 (4.8) | 3 (2.6) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-20 | @ Denver Nuggets | 14 (16.8) | 2 (5.0) | 3 (2.4) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-18 | @ Denver Nuggets | 16 (17.1) | 8 (4.9) | 3 (2.3) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-10 | @ Houston Rockets | 16 (16.5) | 7 (3.9) | 2 (3.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-08 | @ Orlando Magic | 18 (12.4) | 2 (3.7) | 2 (2.6) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Houston Rockets | 25 (14.6) | 2 (4.6) | 0 (3.0) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-22 | @ Boston Celtics | 19 (13.3) | 6 (4.3) | 3 (2.6) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-20 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 16 (13.8) | 6 (4.2) | 3 (2.7) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-18 | vs Utah Jazz | 17 (14.2) | 2 (3.9) | 3 (2.9) | 3 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-17 | vs Phoenix Suns | 16 (14.0) | 7 (4.1) | 4 (3.2) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-15 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 2 (13.0) | 1 (4.2) | 1 (2.5) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-13 | @ Golden State Warriors | 15 (13.6) | 1 (4.1) | 2 (2.9) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-11 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 11 (15.3) | 2 (4.1) | 3 (2.8) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-10 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 6 (15.2) | 2 (4.3) | 0 (3.1) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-07 | vs Orlando Magic | 3 (15.0) | 4 (4.5) | 2 (2.8) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-05 | vs Toronto Raptors | 8 (16.9) | 2 (5.1) | 4 (3.0) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 16 (16.9) | 7 (5.5) | 1 (3.0) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-01 | @ Denver Nuggets | 20 (16.5) | 1 (5.1) | 3 (3.1) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 12 (16.2) | 7 (4.9) | 2 (3.1) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-24 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 29 (15.8) | 6 (5.1) | 2 (3.3) | 5 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 19 (14.1) | 6 (4.4) | 2 (3.0) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 7 (15.5) | 8 (4.7) | 5 (3.0) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 21 (15.7) | 6 (4.6) | 6 (3.2) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 18 (15.6) | 5 (4.3) | 3 (3.3) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-08 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 2 (16.1) | 2 (3.9) | 0 (3.4) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2026-02-06 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 6 (16.2) | 1 (4.5) | 2 (3.6) | 0 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-04 | @ Toronto Raptors | 19 (14.7) | 1 (4.3) | 4 (2.5) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-02 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 29 (14.2) | 4 (4.5) | 3 (2.7) | 5 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 20 (13.1) | 4 (4.6) | 2 (2.8) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-29 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 21 (13.1) | 4 (4.4) | 4 (2.9) | 5 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 8 (15.8) | 2 (5.0) | 2 (3.5) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-26 | vs Golden State Warriors | 14 (16.1) | 3 (5.3) | 3 (4.0) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-25 | vs Golden State Warriors | 3 (16.8) | 3 (5.7) | 1 (3.9) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-22 | vs Chicago Bulls | 16 (16.7) | 5 (5.9) | 5 (3.8) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Utah Jazz | 18 (16.9) | 6 (5.2) | 6 (3.2) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-17 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 23 (14.9) | 5 (4.9) | 5 (2.1) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-16 | @ Houston Rockets | 15 (14.4) | 7 (4.4) | 4 (2.3) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-13 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 17 (15.4) | 6 (4.4) | 5 (2.6) | 4 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-11 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 12 (14.7) | 5 (4.3) | 1 (2.8) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 12 (13.6) | 1 (4.5) | 1 (2.7) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-08 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 26 (12.8) | 5 (4.6) | 1 (2.8) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-06 | vs Miami Heat | 19 (13.5) | 3 (4.9) | 2 (3.2) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-04 | @ Washington Wizards | 12 (13.5) | 5 (4.9) | 5 (3.1) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-03 | @ Miami Heat | 5 (14.5) | 2 (5.5) | 3 (3.3) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-31 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 8 (15.2) | 4 (5.4) | 2 (3.2) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-29 | @ Chicago Bulls | 7 (15.4) | 5 (4.7) | 3 (3.1) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-27 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 16 (15.0) | 3 (4.8) | 4 (3.2) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-25 | @ Denver Nuggets | 21 (14.9) | 4 (4.3) | 4 (2.8) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-21 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 0 (15.9) | 1 (5.0) | 1 (3.4) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-19 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 (15.9) | 4 (4.7) | 2 (2.9) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-17 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 13 (17.2) | 7 (4.9) | 6 (3.0) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-14 | vs Sacramento Kings | 21 (16.5) | 4 (4.9) | 2 (3.4) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-12 | @ Golden State Warriors | 17 (15.4) | 5 (5.2) | 5 (2.6) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-08 | vs Phoenix Suns | 4 (16.7) | 6 (5.2) | 3 (2.7) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-06 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 27 (15.8) | 1 (5.4) | 2 (2.5) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-04 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 14 (15.9) | 7 (5.2) | 5 (2.7) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-02 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 17 (15.5) | 4 (5.2) | 2 (2.9) | 3 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-30 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 13 (14.5) | 4 (5.2) | 3 (3.0) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-29 | vs Boston Celtics | 8 (14.8) | 4 (6.0) | 3 (3.0) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-26 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 10 (14.8) | 6 (5.0) | 3 (2.5) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-24 | @ Sacramento Kings | 6 (16.6) | 8 (5.6) | 2 (3.1) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-21 | @ Phoenix Suns | 13 (17.3) | 5 (5.0) | 2 (2.8) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-17 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 15 (18.6) | 5 (5.6) | 3 (3.0) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-15 | vs Denver Nuggets | 15 (17.7) | 4 (4.6) | 3 (2.5) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-14 | vs Sacramento Kings | 13 (19.6) | 4 (5.4) | 3 (2.6) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-10 | @ Utah Jazz | 16 (17.4) | 6 (4.8) | 3 (2.6) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-09 | @ Sacramento Kings | 21 (19.4) | 5 (5.1) | 3 (3.0) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2025-11-07 | vs Utah Jazz | 22 (18.9) | 7 (4.6) | 1 (2.9) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-05 | @ New York Knicks | 13 (17.1) | 4 (4.3) | 3 (2.2) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-03 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 22 (19.1) | 3 (4.6) | 3 (2.4) | 2 (1.8) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.