Jaylen Brown
Boston Celtics
SF
6-6
223 lb
9 yr exp
California
-1.5
Predictability score
71 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.73 | 5.62 | 5.66 | -0.5% |
| Rebounds | 7.03 | 2.42 | 2.38 | -2.5% |
| Assists | 5.03 | 2.05 | 1.98 | -0.6% |
| 3PM | 1.94 | 1.01 | 1.02 | +1.7% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 33 (25.7) | 9 (6.5) | 4 (5.1) | 3 (2.2) |
| 2026-04-30 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 18 (25.8) | 1 (6.6) | 2 (4.8) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-04-28 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 22 (26.4) | 5 (6.4) | 5 (5.0) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2026-04-26 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 20 (26.3) | 7 (6.1) | 1 (4.6) | 3 (2.2) |
| 2026-04-24 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 25 (26.8) | 7 (6.3) | 4 (4.8) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2026-04-21 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 36 (27.7) | 7 (6.4) | 4 (4.8) | 5 (2.3) |
| 2026-04-19 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 26 (27.6) | 4 (6.9) | 3 (5.0) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-04-10 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 23 (30.0) | 3 (6.3) | 1 (5.5) | 2 (2.5) |
| 2026-04-07 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 35 (28.6) | 9 (6.0) | 3 (5.4) | 3 (2.4) |
| 2026-04-05 | vs Toronto Raptors | 26 (29.8) | 6 (5.3) | 3 (5.6) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-04-03 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 26 (29.4) | 3 (6.8) | 4 (6.2) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-04-01 | @ Miami Heat | 43 (28.8) | 3 (6.9) | 7 (6.3) | 4 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-30 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 29 (27.3) | 10 (6.4) | 9 (5.4) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 31 (27.2) | 8 (6.2) | 8 (5.4) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-22 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 29 (29.1) | 7 (5.9) | 4 (5.8) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-20 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 30 (27.7) | 6 (6.1) | 6 (6.0) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-18 | vs Golden State Warriors | 32 (26.9) | 6 (6.5) | 5 (6.2) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-03-16 | vs Phoenix Suns | 41 (26.2) | 7 (6.3) | 6 (6.2) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Washington Wizards | 16 (27.2) | 4 (7.1) | 3 (6.7) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-12 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 34 (23.5) | 6 (7.1) | 7 (5.7) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-10 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 8 (25.1) | 2 (6.8) | 7 (5.7) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-08 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 23 (26.5) | 9 (6.7) | 8 (6.0) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2026-03-06 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 24 (28.0) | 7 (7.7) | 7 (6.2) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-03-04 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 20 (26.6) | 11 (6.9) | 7 (5.4) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 27 (28.5) | 8 (7.6) | 8 (6.5) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-27 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 28 (28.1) | 7 (7.4) | 9 (5.9) | 4 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-25 | @ Denver Nuggets | 23 (27.7) | 11 (6.1) | 3 (5.2) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-02-22 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 32 (27.4) | 8 (6.1) | 7 (5.3) | 3 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-19 | @ Golden State Warriors | 23 (27.0) | 15 (6.5) | 13 (4.8) | 0 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Chicago Bulls | 24 (28.5) | 4 (7.6) | 4 (5.0) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-08 | vs New York Knicks | 26 (28.0) | 2 (7.1) | 4 (4.9) | 0 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-06 | vs Miami Heat | 29 (27.6) | 7 (7.4) | 2 (5.0) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 33 (27.3) | 11 (7.2) | 3 (4.9) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-01 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 30 (27.2) | 13 (7.1) | 2 (5.4) | 4 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-28 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 21 (27.8) | 7 (7.6) | 3 (5.5) | 0 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-26 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 20 (30.1) | 8 (6.8) | 4 (5.6) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Chicago Bulls | 33 (29.4) | 8 (6.8) | 5 (5.0) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-23 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 27 (29.0) | 10 (6.5) | 12 (4.4) | 4 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-21 | vs Indiana Pacers | 30 (29.4) | 10 (6.7) | 5 (5.1) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-19 | @ Detroit Pistons | 32 (27.5) | 11 (5.3) | 2 (4.6) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-17 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 41 (26.6) | 6 (6.3) | 2 (5.4) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-15 | @ Miami Heat | 27 (27.6) | 7 (6.7) | 0 (5.7) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-10 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 27 (28.9) | 8 (6.5) | 7 (5.5) | 5 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-09 | vs Toronto Raptors | 25 (28.5) | 8 (6.4) | 7 (5.8) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-07 | vs Denver Nuggets | 33 (28.7) | 7 (6.0) | 4 (5.7) | 4 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-05 | vs Chicago Bulls | 14 (29.7) | 8 (6.3) | 4 (5.9) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-03 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 50 (28.0) | 3 (6.4) | 5 (5.2) | 6 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-01 | @ Sacramento Kings | 29 (28.0) | 10 (5.9) | 4 (5.8) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-30 | @ Utah Jazz | 23 (29.9) | 6 (6.3) | 10 (5.6) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-28 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 37 (28.2) | 7 (6.1) | 4 (5.2) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-26 | @ Indiana Pacers | 30 (28.0) | 3 (6.1) | 4 (5.4) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-22 | vs Indiana Pacers | 31 (28.5) | 9 (6.1) | 2 (5.9) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-19 | vs Miami Heat | 30 (28.8) | 9 (6.7) | 7 (5.9) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-15 | vs Detroit Pistons | 34 (30.2) | 8 (5.7) | 7 (5.5) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-11 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 30 (28.7) | 3 (6.5) | 3 (5.5) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-07 | @ Toronto Raptors | 30 (29.7) | 8 (5.9) | 5 (5.6) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 30 (31.9) | 8 (6.3) | 8 (6.5) | 3 (2.7) |
| 2025-12-02 | vs New York Knicks | 42 (28.0) | 4 (6.4) | 4 (6.0) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2025-11-30 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 19 (28.6) | 12 (5.9) | 11 (5.7) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2025-11-29 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 41 (28.9) | 6 (5.8) | 7 (4.8) | 5 (2.2) |
| 2025-11-26 | vs Detroit Pistons | 33 (28.2) | 10 (5.9) | 5 (5.0) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2025-11-23 | vs Orlando Magic | 35 (28.6) | 4 (5.7) | 8 (4.8) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-21 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 26 (28.0) | 8 (5.8) | 4 (5.0) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-18 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 29 (27.7) | 4 (6.0) | 4 (4.7) | 3 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-16 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 33 (28.3) | 13 (5.5) | 3 (4.8) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-12 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 19 (28.7) | 6 (5.7) | 6 (5.1) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-11 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 24 (28.0) | 6 (4.9) | 5 (4.9) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-09 | @ Orlando Magic | 27 (28.6) | 5 (5.1) | 1 (4.9) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-07 | @ Orlando Magic | 32 (27.6) | 9 (4.4) | 3 (5.0) | 1 (2.6) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs Washington Wizards | 35 (24.6) | 5 (5.0) | 5 (5.3) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-03 | vs Utah Jazz | 36 (26.1) | 2 (4.7) | 4 (5.7) | 0 (2.3) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.