Jaylen Wells

Memphis Grizzlies

SG 6-7 206 lb 1 yr exp Sonoma State University
1.0 Predictability score 63 games started, 2025-26
Season 2025-26 season backtest

Projected vs actual profile

Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.

Model vs naive baseline

The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.

StatAvgModel MAENaive MAESkill
Points 12.73 4.8 4.45 +0.5%
Rebounds 3.16 1.42 1.42 +1.5%
Assists 1.63 1.14 1.1 -3.5%
3PM 1.89 1.04 1.05 +3.2%

Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.

Game by game: predicted vs actual

The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.

Every game he started

DateOpponent PointsReboundsAssists3PM
2026-03-23 @ Atlanta Hawks 4 (12.5) 2 (3.0) 2 (2.0) 0 (2.1)
2026-03-21 @ Charlotte Hornets 9 (13.0) 0 (3.5) 1 (1.8) 3 (1.9)
2026-03-20 vs Boston Celtics 6 (12.8) 0 (3.4) 0 (2.0) 0 (2.1)
2026-03-18 vs Denver Nuggets 11 (14.0) 5 (3.1) 0 (2.2) 2 (2.3)
2026-03-16 @ Chicago Bulls 16 (14.0) 3 (3.7) 1 (2.0) 2 (2.4)
2026-03-12 vs Dallas Mavericks 23 (13.6) 2 (3.3) 2 (1.9) 3 (2.4)
2026-03-10 @ Philadelphia 76ers 11 (14.0) 3 (3.4) 0 (2.1) 3 (2.2)
2026-03-09 @ Brooklyn Nets 17 (14.1) 5 (3.4) 2 (1.9) 3 (2.1)
2026-03-07 vs Los Angeles Clippers 8 (14.4) 1 (3.4) 1 (2.1) 2 (2.2)
2026-03-04 vs Portland Trail Blazers 24 (12.9) 3 (3.5) 2 (2.1) 4 (2.1)
2026-03-03 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 19 (13.4) 1 (3.4) 0 (1.9) 4 (1.9)
2026-03-01 @ Indiana Pacers 18 (14.3) 3 (3.7) 1 (2.2) 2 (2.2)
2026-02-27 @ Dallas Mavericks 12 (14.5) 4 (3.5) 3 (1.9) 2 (2.1)
2026-02-25 vs Golden State Warriors 8 (14.8) 2 (3.5) 3 (2.3) 2 (2.0)
2026-02-23 vs Sacramento Kings 12 (15.1) 3 (3.6) 2 (2.1) 0 (2.2)
2026-02-21 @ Miami Heat 25 (13.3) 2 (3.2) 2 (2.0) 3 (2.2)
2026-02-20 vs Utah Jazz 13 (14.7) 3 (3.6) 3 (2.1) 3 (2.3)
2026-02-11 @ Denver Nuggets 17 (13.2) 1 (3.0) 0 (2.0) 2 (2.3)
2026-02-09 @ Golden State Warriors 10 (13.8) 3 (3.2) 0 (2.4) 0 (2.2)
2026-02-06 @ Portland Trail Blazers 13 (13.2) 3 (3.5) 4 (2.0) 2 (2.2)
2026-02-04 @ Sacramento Kings 18 (13.3) 3 (3.1) 1 (2.4) 6 (1.9)
2026-02-02 vs Minnesota Timberwolves 18 (13.0) 1 (3.6) 2 (2.2) 4 (1.9)
2026-01-31 vs Minnesota Timberwolves 15 (13.4) 6 (3.5) 1 (2.1) 2 (2.0)
2026-01-30 @ New Orleans Pelicans 10 (13.5) 4 (3.3) 4 (2.0) 1 (2.2)
2026-01-28 vs Charlotte Hornets 6 (13.6) 2 (3.4) 0 (2.1) 0 (1.9)
2026-01-26 @ Houston Rockets 12 (11.5) 6 (3.1) 0 (1.6) 1 (2.0)
2026-01-23 vs New Orleans Pelicans 11 (13.4) 3 (3.1) 3 (2.1) 1 (2.2)
2026-01-21 vs Atlanta Hawks 18 (12.0) 4 (3.2) 0 (2.2) 2 (2.0)
2026-01-18 vs Orlando Magic 10 (12.0) 2 (3.0) 0 (2.1) 3 (1.8)
2026-01-15 @ Orlando Magic 2 (13.0) 2 (2.9) 0 (2.1) 0 (1.9)
2026-01-11 vs Brooklyn Nets 2 (13.6) 2 (3.4) 1 (2.5) 0 (2.1)
2026-01-09 vs Oklahoma City Thunder 10 (12.3) 4 (3.1) 3 (2.1) 1 (2.1)
2026-01-07 vs Phoenix Suns 9 (13.9) 7 (3.3) 1 (2.5) 1 (2.1)
2026-01-06 vs San Antonio Spurs 8 (13.3) 3 (3.2) 2 (2.5) 2 (2.4)
2026-01-04 @ Los Angeles Lakers 23 (13.7) 1 (3.3) 2 (2.4) 3 (2.1)
2026-01-02 @ Los Angeles Lakers 6 (14.2) 1 (3.5) 2 (2.3) 2 (2.1)
2025-12-30 vs Philadelphia 76ers 14 (13.6) 4 (3.9) 2 (2.5) 2 (2.2)
2025-12-28 @ Washington Wizards 11 (14.5) 7 (3.7) 3 (2.3) 2 (2.0)
2025-12-26 vs Milwaukee Bucks 14 (14.2) 2 (3.8) 3 (2.2) 3 (2.0)
2025-12-23 @ Utah Jazz 12 (15.4) 1 (3.5) 4 (2.6) 2 (2.1)
2025-12-22 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 12 (13.2) 4 (3.6) 0 (1.9) 0 (2.1)
2025-12-20 vs Washington Wizards 4 (15.0) 5 (4.1) 1 (2.4) 0 (2.0)
2025-12-17 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 17 (13.7) 4 (3.1) 2 (1.7) 2 (2.0)
2025-12-15 @ Los Angeles Clippers 16 (13.5) 5 (3.3) 3 (1.9) 1 (2.0)
2025-12-12 vs Utah Jazz 19 (13.6) 5 (3.3) 1 (2.4) 2 (2.0)
2025-12-07 vs Portland Trail Blazers 16 (12.5) 5 (3.2) 3 (1.9) 2 (2.0)
2025-12-05 vs Los Angeles Clippers 17 (13.9) 3 (3.4) 0 (2.0) 3 (2.2)
2025-12-02 @ San Antonio Spurs 20 (12.5) 1 (3.2) 2 (1.8) 2 (2.3)
2025-11-30 @ Sacramento Kings 15 (14.2) 3 (3.4) 1 (2.0) 3 (2.1)
2025-11-28 @ Los Angeles Clippers 13 (14.5) 6 (3.5) 2 (2.0) 1 (2.2)
2025-11-26 @ New Orleans Pelicans 25 (13.3) 3 (3.2) 1 (2.4) 5 (2.0)
2025-11-24 vs Denver Nuggets 22 (11.5) 5 (2.8) 3 (1.6) 4 (2.0)
2025-11-22 @ Dallas Mavericks 9 (12.1) 5 (3.2) 4 (1.8) 0 (1.8)
2025-11-20 vs Sacramento Kings 13 (12.7) 1 (3.2) 2 (2.3) 2 (1.9)
2025-11-18 @ San Antonio Spurs 9 (11.4) 1 (3.4) 2 (1.8) 1 (1.9)
2025-11-15 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 8 (10.9) 2 (3.7) 0 (2.0) 1 (1.7)
2025-11-12 @ Boston Celtics 5 (11.3) 4 (3.8) 0 (2.7) 1 (1.8)
2025-11-11 @ New York Knicks 18 (9.7) 3 (3.5) 4 (1.8) 4 (1.9)
2025-11-09 vs Oklahoma City Thunder 12 (10.7) 1 (3.8) 2 (1.6) 2 (1.8)
2025-11-07 vs Dallas Mavericks 8 (11.8) 5 (4.7) 1 (1.8) 1 (1.8)
2025-11-05 vs Houston Rockets 8 (11.7) 3 (3.0) 1 (1.8) 1 (2.1)
2025-11-03 vs Detroit Pistons 4 (12.4) 6 (3.4) 3 (2.1) 0 (1.8)
2025-11-02 @ Toronto Raptors 7 (13.5) 5 (3.8) 2 (1.9) 1 (2.2)

Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.

About this data

The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.