John Collins
Los Angeles Clippers
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 13.71 | 4.78 | 4.62 | +0.4% |
| Rebounds | 5.48 | 2.3 | 2.36 | +3.6% |
| Assists | 1.04 | 1.08 | 0.92 | -8.0% |
| 3PM | 1.3 | 1.08 | 1.07 | +0.8% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs Golden State Warriors | 18 (13.8) | 9 (5.7) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-04-08 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 12 (14.0) | 9 (5.3) | 3 (1.4) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-04-02 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 15 (11.7) | 6 (5.3) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-31 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 17 (11.5) | 6 (5.2) | 1 (1.3) | 3 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-29 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 22 (11.8) | 3 (5.9) | 3 (1.2) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Indiana Pacers | 5 (13.6) | 6 (6.3) | 1 (1.3) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Toronto Raptors | 0 (14.7) | 5 (6.3) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 8 (14.9) | 3 (6.4) | 0 (1.7) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-19 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 18 (15.2) | 8 (6.0) | 1 (1.9) | 3 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 18 (14.0) | 7 (6.0) | 2 (1.7) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-16 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 11 (12.1) | 9 (5.2) | 4 (1.2) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 15 (14.4) | 7 (6.0) | 1 (1.8) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-20 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 12 (13.7) | 1 (5.9) | 0 (1.4) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-02-19 | vs Denver Nuggets | 11 (14.9) | 12 (6.1) | 4 (1.3) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Houston Rockets | 12 (13.9) | 6 (5.6) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-10 | @ Houston Rockets | 17 (13.5) | 8 (5.5) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-08 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 15 (14.3) | 4 (5.7) | 0 (1.5) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-02-06 | @ Sacramento Kings | 22 (14.6) | 7 (5.7) | 1 (1.7) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-04 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 19 (14.2) | 7 (5.6) | 0 (1.8) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-02 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 15 (13.7) | 7 (5.3) | 2 (1.7) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ Phoenix Suns | 16 (13.8) | 9 (5.0) | 2 (1.6) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Denver Nuggets | 18 (12.1) | 6 (4.2) | 4 (1.3) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-27 | @ Utah Jazz | 11 (13.8) | 2 (4.6) | 1 (1.5) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-25 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 18 (12.5) | 5 (4.9) | 1 (1.4) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-22 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 13 (12.5) | 5 (4.6) | 1 (1.5) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Chicago Bulls | 23 (12.5) | 0 (5.6) | 1 (1.3) | 5 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-19 | @ Washington Wizards | 11 (12.9) | 4 (5.9) | 0 (1.3) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-12 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 3 (14.5) | 5 (5.9) | 1 (1.4) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Detroit Pistons | 25 (12.3) | 7 (5.6) | 1 (1.2) | 5 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-09 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 16 (13.7) | 4 (6.0) | 0 (1.3) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ New York Knicks | 18 (13.4) | 10 (5.9) | 0 (1.3) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-05 | vs Golden State Warriors | 18 (13.4) | 4 (6.0) | 1 (1.3) | 3 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-03 | vs Boston Celtics | 22 (12.1) | 2 (5.9) | 0 (1.3) | 3 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-01 | vs Utah Jazz | 8 (13.8) | 11 (5.8) | 0 (1.7) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-30 | vs Sacramento Kings | 16 (13.9) | 5 (5.4) | 1 (1.9) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-26 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 8 (14.0) | 3 (5.2) | 1 (1.5) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Houston Rockets | 13 (13.7) | 5 (4.7) | 5 (1.4) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-20 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 17 (14.6) | 12 (4.3) | 1 (1.9) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 20 (12.6) | 4 (4.5) | 2 (1.3) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-15 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 10 (14.2) | 2 (5.2) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-11 | @ Houston Rockets | 9 (13.8) | 0 (4.6) | 2 (1.3) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 12 (14.0) | 2 (5.2) | 0 (1.3) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 16 (13.9) | 2 (6.0) | 2 (1.4) | 2 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-03 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 15 (13.1) | 9 (5.4) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Miami Heat | 10 (13.7) | 6 (5.3) | 2 (1.4) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-29 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 21 (13.6) | 4 (5.8) | 1 (1.2) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 10 (13.3) | 7 (5.7) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-25 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 18 (12.8) | 5 (4.7) | 1 (1.3) | 4 (1.0) |
| 2025-11-23 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 5 (12.6) | 3 (4.9) | 0 (1.2) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2025-11-22 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 10 (12.6) | 7 (4.8) | 0 (1.2) | 1 (0.8) |
| 2025-11-20 | @ Orlando Magic | 9 (13.0) | 4 (4.7) | 0 (1.1) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-11-17 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 11 (12.4) | 7 (4.8) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2025-11-16 | @ Boston Celtics | 17 (12.6) | 2 (5.2) | 0 (1.4) | 1 (0.9) |
| 2025-11-14 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 8 (13.2) | 3 (5.6) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-12 | vs Denver Nuggets | 2 (14.1) | 4 (5.2) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-10 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 9 (16.4) | 7 (5.7) | 0 (1.8) | 1 (1.0) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.