Josh Hart
New York Knicks
SG
6-4
215 lb
8 yr exp
Villanova
3.0
Predictability score
71 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 12.0 | 5.24 | 5.19 | +8.3% |
| Rebounds | 7.93 | 2.59 | 2.61 | -2.2% |
| Assists | 4.8 | 1.78 | 1.83 | +2.5% |
| 3PM | 1.58 | 1.26 | 1.26 | +3.4% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 13 (8.9) | 11 (7.1) | 2 (4.4) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-06-10 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 6 (10.2) | 8 (7.3) | 6 (4.5) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-06-08 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 16 (10.3) | 9 (7.2) | 5 (4.3) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2026-06-05 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 0 (11.4) | 6 (6.9) | 4 (4.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-06-03 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 3 (11.7) | 15 (6.9) | 6 (3.7) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-05-25 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 6 (12.8) | 11 (6.7) | 6 (4.1) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-05-23 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 12 (12.4) | 9 (6.5) | 5 (4.3) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-05-21 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 26 (11.7) | 4 (7.0) | 7 (4.2) | 5 (1.7) |
| 2026-05-19 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 13 (12.8) | 7 (7.1) | 4 (4.4) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-10 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 17 (11.9) | 9 (6.9) | 1 (4.0) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-08 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 12 (12.0) | 11 (6.9) | 3 (4.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-06 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 5 (11.6) | 7 (6.7) | 6 (4.2) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-05-04 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 8 (12.1) | 8 (7.1) | 6 (4.7) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-30 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 14 (11.2) | 5 (7.3) | 2 (4.5) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-28 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 9 (12.6) | 5 (8.5) | 4 (5.0) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-25 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 10 (12.0) | 9 (8.1) | 3 (4.8) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-23 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 2 (13.4) | 9 (7.7) | 6 (4.5) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-20 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 15 (13.0) | 13 (7.3) | 6 (4.5) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-18 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 11 (12.9) | 14 (7.1) | 5 (4.2) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-10 | vs Toronto Raptors | 3 (13.0) | 4 (6.1) | 2 (4.7) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-09 | vs Boston Celtics | 26 (11.3) | 1 (6.8) | 3 (4.4) | 5 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-06 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 2 (12.2) | 5 (7.0) | 3 (4.6) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-03 | vs Chicago Bulls | 7 (13.1) | 11 (7.1) | 4 (5.0) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2026-04-01 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 5 (13.9) | 6 (7.3) | 6 (4.7) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-31 | @ Houston Rockets | 13 (12.2) | 5 (6.8) | 2 (4.6) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-29 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 15 (13.8) | 6 (7.2) | 3 (4.3) | 5 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-26 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 16 (13.3) | 7 (6.8) | 4 (4.5) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-24 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 10 (14.0) | 8 (7.4) | 3 (5.3) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-22 | vs Washington Wizards | 16 (14.7) | 6 (8.5) | 4 (5.4) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-17 | vs Indiana Pacers | 33 (11.7) | 7 (7.9) | 5 (4.9) | 5 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-15 | vs Golden State Warriors | 7 (13.0) | 12 (7.2) | 5 (4.6) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-09 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 12 (13.3) | 13 (6.4) | 3 (4.6) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-08 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 8 (13.7) | 6 (6.1) | 2 (5.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-06 | @ Denver Nuggets | 18 (13.1) | 5 (6.4) | 2 (5.2) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-04 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 10 (11.5) | 12 (6.7) | 3 (5.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-03 | @ Toronto Raptors | 12 (11.8) | 7 (6.3) | 7 (5.1) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 10 (12.4) | 10 (6.2) | 7 (5.1) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-27 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 12 (12.7) | 5 (6.9) | 5 (5.5) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-24 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 10 (12.5) | 4 (6.7) | 5 (5.5) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-22 | @ Chicago Bulls | 11 (13.1) | 9 (7.3) | 5 (5.4) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-21 | vs Houston Rockets | 2 (12.9) | 6 (6.6) | 6 (5.0) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-19 | vs Detroit Pistons | 11 (12.5) | 4 (7.0) | 3 (5.0) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 6 (12.9) | 7 (6.7) | 9 (4.8) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-10 | vs Indiana Pacers | 15 (13.9) | 11 (6.7) | 11 (5.0) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-08 | @ Boston Celtics | 19 (12.3) | 6 (6.6) | 3 (4.4) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-02-06 | @ Detroit Pistons | 5 (12.8) | 6 (5.9) | 2 (4.5) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Washington Wizards | 4 (14.6) | 7 (7.3) | 7 (4.9) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-02-01 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 20 (13.8) | 4 (6.9) | 2 (5.3) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-30 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 20 (11.3) | 6 (6.8) | 5 (5.2) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Toronto Raptors | 22 (10.8) | 5 (7.1) | 6 (4.9) | 4 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-27 | vs Sacramento Kings | 7 (12.2) | 9 (7.3) | 4 (5.7) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 10 (10.7) | 13 (6.5) | 7 (5.2) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-21 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 11 (12.7) | 9 (6.6) | 3 (5.9) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-19 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 8 (13.8) | 6 (6.6) | 3 (6.4) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-15 | @ Golden State Warriors | 5 (13.9) | 5 (6.4) | 10 (5.1) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-14 | @ Sacramento Kings | 10 (16.0) | 5 (6.7) | 5 (5.9) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 18 (11.8) | 3 (5.8) | 6 (4.6) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-25 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 15 (13.9) | 5 (8.4) | 3 (5.9) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 12 (12.0) | 15 (6.4) | 8 (4.9) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-21 | vs Miami Heat | 13 (12.8) | 10 (7.7) | 5 (5.2) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-19 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 5 (13.0) | 10 (7.1) | 6 (4.9) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-13 | @ Orlando Magic | 12 (13.3) | 6 (6.6) | 6 (4.5) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-09 | @ Toronto Raptors | 21 (13.1) | 6 (7.4) | 4 (4.8) | 4 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-07 | vs Orlando Magic | 17 (15.0) | 12 (6.9) | 1 (5.5) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Utah Jazz | 8 (15.8) | 6 (7.6) | 6 (5.9) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-03 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 15 (14.3) | 8 (8.0) | 8 (5.4) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-02 | @ Boston Celtics | 19 (13.1) | 7 (7.9) | 4 (4.9) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-30 | vs Toronto Raptors | 20 (13.7) | 12 (7.2) | 7 (5.0) | 4 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 19 (12.8) | 15 (7.0) | 7 (5.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-26 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 22 (12.2) | 8 (6.5) | 7 (5.4) | 4 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-24 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 7 (11.9) | 12 (6.1) | 7 (5.0) | 1 (1.6) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.