Jrue Holiday
Portland Trail Blazers
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 16.36 | 6.0 | 6.2 | +12.8% |
| Rebounds | 4.64 | 1.89 | 1.84 | -4.2% |
| Assists | 5.98 | 2.61 | 2.57 | -3.4% |
| 3PM | 2.6 | 1.62 | 1.71 | +6.7% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-28 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 8 (16.4) | 6 (4.7) | 7 (6.0) | 1 (2.5) |
| 2026-04-26 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 20 (16.8) | 6 (4.6) | 4 (6.4) | 3 (2.4) |
| 2026-04-24 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 29 (16.4) | 6 (4.7) | 5 (6.2) | 5 (2.5) |
| 2026-04-21 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 16 (16.1) | 5 (4.8) | 9 (5.7) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-04-19 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 9 (16.9) | 4 (5.0) | 11 (5.7) | 1 (2.9) |
| 2026-04-12 | vs Sacramento Kings | 23 (18.6) | 7 (4.6) | 3 (7.0) | 2 (3.1) |
| 2026-04-10 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 9 (17.7) | 3 (4.4) | 4 (6.6) | 0 (3.2) |
| 2026-04-08 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 13 (16.9) | 10 (3.8) | 6 (5.6) | 1 (3.0) |
| 2026-04-06 | @ Denver Nuggets | 19 (17.3) | 6 (4.0) | 11 (5.9) | 5 (3.3) |
| 2026-04-02 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 27 (16.0) | 5 (3.8) | 9 (5.6) | 7 (3.0) |
| 2026-03-31 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 30 (15.3) | 6 (3.6) | 2 (5.0) | 7 (2.7) |
| 2026-03-29 | vs Washington Wizards | 11 (17.1) | 1 (4.4) | 2 (6.4) | 3 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-27 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 23 (16.8) | 4 (4.1) | 3 (6.5) | 3 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 13 (16.1) | 5 (4.0) | 8 (5.8) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 11 (15.1) | 7 (3.7) | 4 (6.3) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-22 | @ Denver Nuggets | 9 (15.5) | 3 (4.0) | 3 (6.4) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-20 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 12 (15.6) | 2 (4.1) | 12 (5.6) | 1 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Indiana Pacers | 15 (15.3) | 3 (4.3) | 8 (5.9) | 4 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-16 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 11 (15.7) | 9 (3.6) | 5 (6.0) | 1 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-15 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 5 (17.3) | 5 (3.6) | 2 (7.0) | 1 (2.7) |
| 2026-03-13 | vs Utah Jazz | 25 (18.8) | 5 (4.1) | 8 (7.5) | 4 (3.0) |
| 2026-03-10 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 4 (18.0) | 1 (4.1) | 5 (6.8) | 0 (2.9) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs Indiana Pacers | 21 (19.2) | 3 (4.6) | 3 (8.1) | 5 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-06 | @ Houston Rockets | 20 (19.0) | 4 (4.1) | 10 (7.0) | 2 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-04 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 35 (18.2) | 5 (4.8) | 11 (6.8) | 8 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-01 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 23 (16.9) | 6 (3.8) | 4 (6.6) | 3 (2.4) |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 25 (17.0) | 5 (4.3) | 4 (5.7) | 3 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Chicago Bulls | 10 (17.7) | 3 (4.3) | 7 (6.3) | 0 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 22 (18.4) | 3 (4.5) | 4 (6.5) | 2 (2.8) |
| 2026-02-22 | @ Phoenix Suns | 6 (17.8) | 5 (4.1) | 7 (6.2) | 0 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Denver Nuggets | 19 (18.4) | 2 (4.3) | 2 (6.6) | 4 (2.8) |
| 2026-02-12 | @ Utah Jazz | 31 (18.3) | 9 (3.9) | 7 (7.0) | 4 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 23 (15.9) | 5 (4.0) | 5 (6.3) | 5 (2.3) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 13 (16.0) | 7 (3.9) | 7 (6.6) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 21 (15.9) | 2 (4.4) | 4 (6.6) | 4 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-06 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 20 (15.5) | 5 (4.2) | 7 (6.5) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-02-03 | vs Phoenix Suns | 15 (15.2) | 4 (4.1) | 5 (6.8) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ New York Knicks | 5 (14.5) | 2 (3.8) | 4 (6.2) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-27 | @ Washington Wizards | 5 (15.7) | 7 (4.0) | 5 (6.7) | 0 (2.5) |
| 2026-01-26 | @ Boston Celtics | 14 (15.5) | 3 (3.8) | 3 (6.7) | 3 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-23 | vs Toronto Raptors | 21 (15.9) | 1 (4.2) | 7 (6.1) | 3 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-22 | vs Miami Heat | 15 (15.3) | 2 (4.9) | 7 (6.5) | 3 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-17 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 9 (15.9) | 3 (4.5) | 4 (6.9) | 1 (2.6) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 12 (15.1) | 4 (5.1) | 4 (6.5) | 1 (2.8) |
| 2025-11-14 | @ Houston Rockets | 13 (17.2) | 4 (3.8) | 6 (7.5) | 3 (2.8) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 17 (16.9) | 4 (4.9) | 12 (8.0) | 3 (2.8) |
| 2025-11-10 | @ Orlando Magic | 13 (18.6) | 7 (4.0) | 7 (7.5) | 1 (3.0) |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Miami Heat | 18 (16.3) | 9 (4.0) | 13 (7.4) | 3 (2.9) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 22 (16.1) | 6 (3.7) | 3 (7.8) | 6 (2.7) |
| 2025-11-03 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 8 (19.5) | 3 (4.5) | 6 (9.4) | 0 (3.0) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.