Kawhi Leonard
Los Angeles Clippers
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.25 | 5.24 | 5.67 | +2.1% |
| Rebounds | 6.42 | 2.19 | 2.13 | -1.8% |
| Assists | 3.61 | 1.33 | 1.32 | -0.2% |
| 3PM | 2.68 | 1.35 | 1.46 | +6.8% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 24 (25.0) | 8 (6.9) | 5 (3.7) | 1 (2.5) |
| 2026-04-08 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 20 (24.6) | 8 (6.3) | 3 (3.4) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-04-07 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 34 (26.3) | 4 (7.2) | 3 (4.0) | 6 (2.5) |
| 2026-04-05 | @ Sacramento Kings | 26 (26.0) | 6 (7.0) | 3 (3.9) | 3 (2.3) |
| 2026-04-02 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 24 (26.2) | 6 (6.7) | 5 (3.5) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-31 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 23 (26.5) | 8 (6.3) | 3 (3.4) | 0 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-29 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 20 (27.1) | 8 (6.7) | 2 (3.3) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Indiana Pacers | 28 (26.9) | 8 (7.0) | 4 (3.5) | 1 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Toronto Raptors | 27 (27.1) | 6 (6.6) | 2 (3.6) | 2 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 28 (26.0) | 5 (7.3) | 3 (3.9) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 34 (27.0) | 3 (7.0) | 5 (3.9) | 5 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 25 (29.1) | 8 (6.8) | 1 (4.5) | 4 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Sacramento Kings | 31 (28.1) | 6 (7.2) | 0 (4.5) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-13 | vs Chicago Bulls | 28 (28.3) | 4 (7.7) | 3 (4.2) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-11 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 45 (26.4) | 5 (6.7) | 5 (3.9) | 6 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-09 | vs New York Knicks | 29 (25.0) | 7 (6.6) | 8 (3.7) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-07 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 28 (25.5) | 5 (7.1) | 2 (3.7) | 0 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-06 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 30 (25.2) | 9 (6.7) | 3 (3.6) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-04 | vs Indiana Pacers | 29 (26.6) | 8 (7.0) | 2 (4.5) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-02 | @ Golden State Warriors | 23 (26.3) | 8 (6.3) | 4 (4.3) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 23 (28.4) | 3 (7.1) | 5 (4.9) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs Orlando Magic | 37 (27.3) | 8 (6.9) | 4 (4.4) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-20 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 31 (27.0) | 4 (6.7) | 5 (4.0) | 4 (2.4) |
| 2026-02-19 | vs Denver Nuggets | 23 (29.0) | 4 (7.4) | 3 (4.4) | 1 (2.7) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Houston Rockets | 27 (27.7) | 12 (6.3) | 4 (4.1) | 1 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-10 | @ Houston Rockets | 24 (27.8) | 8 (6.3) | 3 (4.1) | 2 (2.5) |
| 2026-02-08 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 41 (26.7) | 8 (6.1) | 2 (4.4) | 5 (2.4) |
| 2026-02-06 | @ Sacramento Kings | 31 (26.6) | 9 (6.3) | 7 (4.5) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-04 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 25 (25.7) | 7 (6.4) | 4 (4.2) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-02 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 29 (25.4) | 4 (6.2) | 6 (4.4) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ Phoenix Suns | 25 (25.4) | 8 (6.1) | 5 (3.7) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Denver Nuggets | 21 (24.5) | 3 (5.8) | 6 (3.3) | 1 (2.6) |
| 2026-01-27 | @ Utah Jazz | 21 (26.9) | 7 (5.8) | 4 (3.9) | 3 (2.8) |
| 2026-01-25 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 28 (26.5) | 5 (6.1) | 2 (4.5) | 2 (3.0) |
| 2026-01-22 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 24 (28.7) | 5 (5.9) | 4 (4.2) | 3 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-14 | vs Washington Wizards | 33 (27.0) | 3 (7.4) | 4 (4.1) | 7 (2.8) |
| 2026-01-12 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 35 (26.4) | 5 (6.6) | 3 (3.8) | 5 (2.5) |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Detroit Pistons | 26 (26.6) | 8 (6.1) | 1 (3.6) | 4 (2.8) |
| 2026-01-09 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 26 (28.0) | 5 (6.6) | 5 (3.9) | 4 (2.7) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ New York Knicks | 25 (29.7) | 3 (7.1) | 4 (4.0) | 3 (3.1) |
| 2026-01-05 | vs Golden State Warriors | 24 (30.8) | 12 (7.3) | 5 (4.1) | 0 (2.8) |
| 2026-01-03 | vs Boston Celtics | 22 (30.3) | 3 (7.4) | 3 (4.0) | 2 (2.9) |
| 2026-01-01 | vs Utah Jazz | 45 (31.2) | 7 (7.5) | 3 (4.5) | 6 (3.2) |
| 2025-12-30 | vs Sacramento Kings | 33 (29.8) | 5 (7.3) | 5 (4.6) | 5 (2.7) |
| 2025-12-28 | vs Detroit Pistons | 55 (27.4) | 11 (6.1) | 2 (3.9) | 5 (2.6) |
| 2025-12-26 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 28 (26.3) | 8 (6.7) | 6 (3.8) | 2 (2.5) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Houston Rockets | 41 (25.0) | 8 (6.1) | 5 (3.4) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2025-12-20 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 32 (24.5) | 12 (6.0) | 3 (4.2) | 4 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 22 (22.9) | 8 (5.8) | 6 (3.1) | 0 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-15 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 21 (25.4) | 4 (6.5) | 3 (3.7) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2025-12-11 | @ Houston Rockets | 24 (25.2) | 9 (5.4) | 4 (3.1) | 3 (2.3) |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 20 (25.6) | 3 (5.8) | 2 (3.4) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 24 (25.3) | 8 (5.9) | 4 (3.9) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2025-12-03 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 21 (24.6) | 6 (5.7) | 5 (3.8) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Miami Heat | 36 (25.7) | 7 (5.4) | 2 (3.8) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2025-11-29 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 30 (24.5) | 8 (5.5) | 3 (3.5) | 3 (2.3) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 39 (22.4) | 3 (5.5) | 0 (4.0) | 3 (2.2) |
| 2025-11-25 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 19 (22.1) | 5 (4.6) | 3 (3.7) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-23 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 20 (17.8) | 3 (4.5) | 2 (2.8) | 3 (1.8) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.