Kevin Durant
Houston Rockets
PF
6-11
240 lb
17 yr exp
Texas
0.4
Predictability score
73 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.92 | 5.77 | 5.86 | +1.7% |
| Rebounds | 5.45 | 1.82 | 1.84 | -0.8% |
| Assists | 4.96 | 2.07 | 2.14 | +3.7% |
| 3PM | 2.41 | 1.15 | 1.18 | +3.5% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 23 (23.8) | 6 (5.2) | 4 (4.5) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2026-04-10 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 33 (24.5) | 7 (5.6) | 7 (4.8) | 0 (2.4) |
| 2026-04-09 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 29 (24.9) | 7 (5.9) | 5 (5.4) | 3 (2.4) |
| 2026-04-07 | @ Phoenix Suns | 24 (25.1) | 4 (5.7) | 3 (5.3) | 5 (2.1) |
| 2026-04-05 | @ Golden State Warriors | 31 (24.5) | 8 (5.6) | 8 (5.1) | 3 (2.3) |
| 2026-04-03 | vs Utah Jazz | 25 (26.0) | 5 (5.5) | 6 (6.1) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-04-01 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 19 (25.2) | 5 (5.9) | 9 (5.4) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-31 | vs New York Knicks | 27 (25.0) | 6 (5.1) | 8 (5.1) | 4 (2.7) |
| 2026-03-29 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 20 (25.2) | 4 (5.0) | 6 (5.3) | 1 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 25 (24.8) | 6 (5.3) | 10 (5.0) | 3 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 30 (24.6) | 3 (5.1) | 8 (4.2) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-23 | @ Chicago Bulls | 40 (24.1) | 7 (5.4) | 5 (4.7) | 5 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-21 | vs Miami Heat | 27 (24.2) | 3 (5.1) | 3 (4.9) | 5 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-20 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 25 (23.0) | 3 (5.8) | 6 (4.9) | 3 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-18 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 18 (23.3) | 6 (5.0) | 4 (5.1) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-03-16 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 18 (24.3) | 5 (5.8) | 2 (5.3) | 0 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-13 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 32 (24.6) | 6 (6.0) | 5 (5.2) | 3 (2.1) |
| 2026-03-11 | @ Denver Nuggets | 11 (24.7) | 4 (5.5) | 5 (4.6) | 0 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-10 | vs Toronto Raptors | 29 (24.3) | 8 (5.8) | 2 (5.1) | 4 (2.2) |
| 2026-03-08 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 23 (24.7) | 5 (5.4) | 4 (4.4) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-06 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 20 (25.8) | 8 (5.5) | 5 (5.2) | 0 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-05 | vs Golden State Warriors | 23 (25.5) | 6 (5.6) | 3 (5.1) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-02 | @ Washington Wizards | 30 (25.9) | 7 (5.5) | 1 (5.0) | 3 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Miami Heat | 32 (25.9) | 5 (5.6) | 8 (4.8) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Orlando Magic | 40 (23.9) | 8 (5.0) | 3 (4.8) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-02-25 | vs Sacramento Kings | 21 (26.1) | 4 (5.5) | 5 (5.5) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-23 | vs Utah Jazz | 18 (26.3) | 5 (5.2) | 12 (5.5) | 4 (2.7) |
| 2026-02-21 | @ New York Knicks | 30 (24.2) | 6 (5.4) | 3 (4.6) | 4 (2.6) |
| 2026-02-19 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 35 (24.7) | 8 (5.4) | 4 (4.2) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 21 (24.3) | 8 (4.5) | 6 (4.6) | 3 (2.4) |
| 2026-02-10 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 26 (24.1) | 6 (4.6) | 3 (4.9) | 3 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-07 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 20 (23.7) | 1 (4.8) | 4 (4.4) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 31 (23.7) | 3 (4.9) | 1 (4.7) | 3 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-04 | vs Boston Celtics | 15 (23.5) | 5 (5.2) | 1 (5.2) | 0 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-31 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 13 (26.2) | 5 (5.5) | 8 (5.1) | 1 (2.7) |
| 2026-01-29 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 31 (24.4) | 5 (6.0) | 4 (4.9) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2026-01-28 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 24 (24.7) | 2 (5.4) | 6 (4.8) | 2 (2.5) |
| 2026-01-26 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 33 (25.8) | 8 (5.7) | 2 (5.5) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2026-01-23 | @ Detroit Pistons | 32 (24.0) | 7 (4.7) | 3 (4.8) | 5 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-22 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 36 (24.4) | 7 (5.5) | 3 (5.1) | 5 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-20 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 18 (25.4) | 4 (5.3) | 7 (5.1) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-18 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 18 (26.0) | 6 (5.6) | 8 (6.0) | 1 (2.5) |
| 2026-01-16 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 39 (24.7) | 4 (5.5) | 7 (4.8) | 6 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 (24.5) | 7 (5.6) | 3 (4.6) | 0 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs Chicago Bulls | 28 (25.0) | 10 (5.6) | 4 (5.1) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Sacramento Kings | 23 (25.5) | 4 (5.4) | 6 (5.3) | 4 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-09 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 30 (25.8) | 12 (5.0) | 4 (5.4) | 4 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 37 (26.0) | 4 (5.1) | 0 (5.5) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-05 | vs Phoenix Suns | 26 (26.5) | 10 (4.7) | 4 (5.7) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-03 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 34 (24.6) | 5 (4.8) | 7 (5.1) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-01 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 22 (24.3) | 5 (4.9) | 11 (4.3) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs Indiana Pacers | 30 (25.3) | 6 (5.2) | 5 (5.0) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-27 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 30 (24.1) | 4 (5.6) | 7 (5.0) | 2 (2.5) |
| 2025-12-25 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 25 (24.1) | 4 (4.9) | 8 (4.5) | 4 (2.4) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 22 (22.8) | 5 (5.0) | 1 (4.3) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-21 | @ Sacramento Kings | 24 (23.7) | 10 (4.3) | 8 (4.3) | 3 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Denver Nuggets | 31 (23.0) | 6 (4.2) | 5 (4.3) | 5 (2.3) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 32 (23.7) | 7 (4.2) | 2 (4.9) | 4 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-15 | @ Denver Nuggets | 25 (23.5) | 5 (4.0) | 7 (4.0) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2025-12-11 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 16 (25.0) | 1 (5.2) | 3 (4.6) | 3 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 27 (23.7) | 1 (5.7) | 3 (4.5) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Phoenix Suns | 28 (23.8) | 4 (6.0) | 8 (4.7) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2025-12-03 | vs Sacramento Kings | 24 (24.6) | 3 (5.9) | 8 (4.5) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Utah Jazz | 32 (22.2) | 9 (4.8) | 5 (3.6) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2025-11-30 | @ Utah Jazz | 25 (23.4) | 7 (4.5) | 4 (4.0) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-21 | vs Denver Nuggets | 13 (24.7) | 7 (3.9) | 2 (3.8) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2025-11-19 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 20 (24.6) | 3 (4.6) | 3 (3.9) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-16 | vs Orlando Magic | 35 (25.1) | 5 (4.4) | 6 (3.0) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-14 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 30 (24.4) | 5 (5.0) | 3 (3.8) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-12 | vs Washington Wizards | 23 (24.6) | 5 (5.0) | 4 (4.3) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-09 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 31 (23.0) | 3 (5.0) | 7 (2.8) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-07 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 24 (22.8) | 1 (5.2) | 2 (2.5) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-05 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 11 (25.5) | 4 (5.8) | 5 (2.9) | 1 (2.1) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.