LeBron James
Los Angeles Lakers
SF
6-9
250 lb
22 yr exp
6.5
Predictability score
70 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.26 | 4.97 | 5.16 | +6.8% |
| Rebounds | 6.16 | 2.33 | 2.46 | +6.1% |
| Assists | 7.21 | 2.4 | 2.61 | +8.4% |
| 3PM | 1.34 | 1.04 | 0.99 | -1.5% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 24 (22.9) | 12 (6.2) | 3 (7.0) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-09 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 (22.2) | 6 (6.1) | 8 (6.8) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-05-07 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 23 (22.2) | 2 (6.4) | 6 (6.4) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-05-05 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 27 (22.8) | 4 (6.6) | 6 (6.5) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Houston Rockets | 28 (22.1) | 7 (6.4) | 8 (7.0) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-04-29 | vs Houston Rockets | 25 (23.3) | 3 (6.7) | 7 (7.3) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-26 | @ Houston Rockets | 10 (23.2) | 4 (6.9) | 9 (6.9) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-24 | @ Houston Rockets | 29 (23.6) | 13 (6.6) | 6 (7.2) | 4 (1.8) |
| 2026-04-21 | vs Houston Rockets | 28 (24.5) | 8 (6.8) | 7 (7.6) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-04-18 | vs Houston Rockets | 19 (25.3) | 8 (7.2) | 13 (7.8) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-04-12 | vs Utah Jazz | 18 (24.9) | 4 (7.7) | 6 (8.7) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2026-04-10 | vs Phoenix Suns | 28 (23.4) | 6 (7.0) | 12 (8.1) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-04-09 | @ Golden State Warriors | 26 (21.5) | 8 (6.9) | 11 (7.2) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-05 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 30 (21.9) | 9 (6.4) | 15 (7.1) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-04-02 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 (20.5) | 6 (6.2) | 2 (6.3) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-31 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 14 (21.7) | 5 (6.8) | 6 (7.0) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Washington Wizards | 21 (21.7) | 10 (7.2) | 12 (7.6) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-27 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 14 (21.1) | 6 (7.0) | 8 (7.0) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Indiana Pacers | 23 (21.4) | 9 (7.2) | 9 (7.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-23 | @ Detroit Pistons | 12 (20.6) | 9 (5.9) | 10 (5.9) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Orlando Magic | 12 (21.6) | 6 (6.5) | 4 (5.9) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-19 | @ Miami Heat | 19 (22.1) | 15 (6.2) | 10 (5.8) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Houston Rockets | 30 (20.7) | 5 (5.7) | 2 (5.8) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-16 | @ Houston Rockets | 18 (21.0) | 5 (5.9) | 5 (5.7) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Denver Nuggets | 17 (22.1) | 6 (6.4) | 5 (6.6) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Chicago Bulls | 18 (21.5) | 7 (6.8) | 7 (7.3) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-05 | @ Denver Nuggets | 16 (21.9) | 5 (5.8) | 8 (5.8) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 21 (23.5) | 7 (6.0) | 7 (6.7) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Sacramento Kings | 24 (21.8) | 1 (6.3) | 5 (7.2) | 3 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Golden State Warriors | 22 (21.6) | 7 (6.2) | 9 (7.0) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Phoenix Suns | 15 (21.4) | 6 (6.0) | 5 (7.2) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Orlando Magic | 21 (22.9) | 6 (6.4) | 4 (7.8) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs Boston Celtics | 20 (23.1) | 4 (6.8) | 5 (7.5) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 13 (24.4) | 3 (6.6) | 11 (7.8) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-02-12 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 28 (24.1) | 10 (6.1) | 12 (8.3) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 22 (22.2) | 6 (5.5) | 10 (6.6) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Golden State Warriors | 20 (22.5) | 7 (5.5) | 10 (6.3) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 17 (23.4) | 4 (5.8) | 10 (6.5) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 25 (22.1) | 3 (5.5) | 7 (5.6) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ New York Knicks | 22 (22.2) | 5 (5.6) | 6 (5.6) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Washington Wizards | 20 (22.9) | 3 (6.7) | 6 (6.5) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 11 (22.2) | 3 (6.0) | 5 (6.4) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-26 | @ Chicago Bulls | 24 (22.4) | 5 (6.6) | 3 (6.7) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 17 (24.2) | 8 (6.8) | 5 (7.0) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-22 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 23 (24.2) | 5 (6.4) | 6 (6.9) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Denver Nuggets | 19 (24.3) | 9 (5.9) | 8 (6.9) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-18 | vs Toronto Raptors | 24 (25.0) | 4 (6.8) | 7 (7.3) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2026-01-17 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 20 (24.9) | 9 (6.5) | 8 (7.3) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 29 (25.0) | 9 (6.1) | 6 (6.9) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 31 (23.5) | 9 (6.8) | 10 (7.4) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-12 | @ Sacramento Kings | 22 (24.5) | 4 (6.6) | 3 (7.9) | 0 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-09 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 26 (24.2) | 9 (6.5) | 10 (6.9) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 30 (23.5) | 8 (5.6) | 8 (6.7) | 3 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-04 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 26 (23.4) | 7 (5.8) | 10 (6.4) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-02 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 31 (22.4) | 9 (5.8) | 6 (6.6) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-30 | vs Detroit Pistons | 17 (23.6) | 4 (4.6) | 4 (6.4) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-28 | vs Sacramento Kings | 24 (24.7) | 3 (5.3) | 5 (7.7) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-25 | vs Houston Rockets | 18 (23.7) | 2 (5.6) | 5 (6.9) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Phoenix Suns | 23 (23.1) | 2 (6.3) | 6 (6.6) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 36 (22.1) | 4 (6.2) | 3 (6.7) | 3 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Utah Jazz | 28 (21.9) | 7 (6.1) | 10 (7.2) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-14 | @ Phoenix Suns | 26 (18.3) | 3 (5.9) | 4 (6.4) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-10 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 19 (18.4) | 15 (4.7) | 8 (6.4) | 0 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-07 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 29 (16.4) | 7 (4.2) | 6 (6.4) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-04 | @ Toronto Raptors | 8 (18.6) | 6 (4.2) | 11 (6.0) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-01 | vs Phoenix Suns | 10 (18.8) | 0 (5.2) | 3 (7.1) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 13 (18.7) | 5 (5.6) | 7 (7.8) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-25 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 25 (17.6) | 6 (5.0) | 6 (8.9) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-23 | @ Utah Jazz | 17 (14.0) | 6 (4.0) | 8 (9.9) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-18 | vs Utah Jazz | 11 (14.2) | 3 (5.0) | 12 (3.3) | 2 (1.3) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.