Luka Dončić
Los Angeles Lakers
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 32.97 | 6.88 | 7.38 | +7.0% |
| Rebounds | 7.48 | 2.58 | 2.68 | +3.1% |
| Assists | 8.28 | 2.64 | 2.77 | +6.1% |
| 3PM | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.57 | +2.0% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 12 (33.1) | 4 (6.8) | 7 (7.0) | 1 (3.7) |
| 2026-03-31 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 42 (33.9) | 5 (7.3) | 12 (7.6) | 6 (3.8) |
| 2026-03-27 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 41 (34.3) | 8 (7.3) | 3 (8.3) | 5 (3.9) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Indiana Pacers | 43 (34.6) | 6 (7.7) | 7 (8.3) | 4 (4.0) |
| 2026-03-23 | @ Detroit Pistons | 32 (33.3) | 7 (6.8) | 6 (7.9) | 3 (4.0) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Orlando Magic | 33 (34.5) | 5 (7.6) | 8 (7.9) | 3 (4.2) |
| 2026-03-19 | @ Miami Heat | 60 (33.8) | 7 (7.9) | 3 (8.5) | 9 (4.1) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Houston Rockets | 40 (32.2) | 9 (7.2) | 10 (8.0) | 7 (3.9) |
| 2026-03-16 | @ Houston Rockets | 36 (32.5) | 6 (7.5) | 4 (7.8) | 4 (3.8) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Denver Nuggets | 30 (34.0) | 11 (8.2) | 13 (8.2) | 4 (3.9) |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Chicago Bulls | 51 (32.2) | 10 (8.5) | 9 (8.4) | 9 (3.6) |
| 2026-03-10 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 31 (31.4) | 11 (7.6) | 11 (7.3) | 4 (3.5) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs New York Knicks | 35 (30.1) | 8 (7.9) | 4 (7.7) | 5 (3.4) |
| 2026-03-06 | vs Indiana Pacers | 44 (31.3) | 9 (8.0) | 5 (8.5) | 7 (3.4) |
| 2026-03-05 | @ Denver Nuggets | 27 (30.6) | 11 (7.2) | 7 (7.9) | 3 (3.5) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 27 (31.7) | 10 (7.2) | 7 (8.8) | 3 (3.4) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Sacramento Kings | 28 (31.0) | 5 (7.4) | 9 (9.1) | 4 (3.4) |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Golden State Warriors | 26 (30.7) | 6 (7.4) | 8 (8.8) | 4 (3.3) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Phoenix Suns | 41 (29.7) | 8 (6.9) | 8 (8.9) | 6 (3.3) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Orlando Magic | 22 (31.1) | 9 (7.1) | 15 (8.4) | 2 (3.6) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs Boston Celtics | 25 (32.2) | 5 (7.4) | 3 (8.5) | 4 (3.9) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 38 (28.0) | 6 (6.2) | 11 (6.8) | 8 (2.8) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 10 (32.4) | 4 (8.1) | 2 (9.1) | 0 (3.7) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 24 (32.0) | 6 (7.6) | 5 (8.7) | 4 (3.4) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ New York Knicks | 30 (32.1) | 15 (7.4) | 8 (8.4) | 5 (3.5) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Washington Wizards | 37 (32.7) | 11 (8.3) | 13 (9.0) | 6 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 29 (31.8) | 5 (7.4) | 6 (8.8) | 3 (3.5) |
| 2026-01-26 | @ Chicago Bulls | 46 (31.6) | 7 (7.7) | 12 (8.6) | 8 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 33 (32.7) | 8 (7.4) | 11 (8.3) | 3 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-22 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 32 (31.9) | 11 (6.5) | 8 (8.2) | 3 (3.7) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Denver Nuggets | 38 (31.7) | 13 (5.9) | 10 (8.3) | 3 (3.4) |
| 2026-01-18 | vs Toronto Raptors | 25 (32.4) | 2 (7.1) | 7 (8.8) | 5 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 39 (32.9) | 3 (7.0) | 4 (9.0) | 6 (3.2) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 27 (32.4) | 5 (8.4) | 12 (9.4) | 5 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-12 | @ Sacramento Kings | 42 (33.2) | 7 (7.6) | 8 (9.5) | 2 (3.2) |
| 2026-01-09 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 24 (34.0) | 9 (7.7) | 9 (9.2) | 4 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 38 (33.3) | 10 (6.8) | 10 (8.3) | 2 (3.6) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 30 (33.7) | 2 (7.3) | 10 (8.8) | 3 (3.6) |
| 2026-01-04 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 36 (34.0) | 9 (7.6) | 8 (8.9) | 4 (3.6) |
| 2026-01-02 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 34 (31.5) | 6 (8.0) | 8 (8.9) | 1 (3.4) |
| 2025-12-30 | vs Detroit Pistons | 30 (32.9) | 5 (6.9) | 11 (8.2) | 3 (3.5) |
| 2025-12-28 | vs Sacramento Kings | 34 (33.5) | 5 (7.6) | 7 (9.4) | 5 (3.4) |
| 2025-12-25 | vs Houston Rockets | 25 (33.1) | 5 (7.1) | 7 (8.4) | 3 (3.4) |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 12 (34.7) | 5 (7.8) | 2 (8.6) | 1 (3.4) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Utah Jazz | 45 (35.6) | 11 (7.6) | 14 (8.9) | 4 (3.5) |
| 2025-12-14 | @ Phoenix Suns | 29 (33.9) | 3 (8.6) | 6 (8.5) | 2 (3.1) |
| 2025-12-10 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 35 (34.8) | 5 (9.3) | 8 (8.8) | 3 (3.5) |
| 2025-12-07 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 31 (33.2) | 15 (8.3) | 11 (8.5) | 2 (3.2) |
| 2025-12-01 | vs Phoenix Suns | 38 (34.8) | 11 (8.0) | 5 (8.9) | 3 (3.9) |
| 2025-11-30 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 34 (36.1) | 12 (7.8) | 7 (9.5) | 4 (3.9) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 35 (34.2) | 5 (8.2) | 11 (9.3) | 4 (3.5) |
| 2025-11-25 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 43 (34.7) | 9 (8.1) | 13 (8.7) | 7 (3.5) |
| 2025-11-23 | @ Utah Jazz | 33 (35.2) | 11 (7.5) | 8 (8.7) | 3 (3.7) |
| 2025-11-18 | vs Utah Jazz | 37 (33.8) | 5 (7.7) | 10 (9.2) | 2 (3.6) |
| 2025-11-15 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 41 (32.2) | 9 (8.1) | 6 (9.1) | 5 (3.5) |
| 2025-11-14 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 24 (33.3) | 7 (8.2) | 12 (9.7) | 3 (3.8) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 (33.4) | 7 (8.1) | 7 (8.6) | 1 (3.9) |
| 2025-11-10 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 38 (35.6) | 6 (8.9) | 7 (9.6) | 5 (3.8) |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 22 (37.3) | 5 (9.5) | 11 (8.9) | 4 (3.8) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 35 (36.6) | 9 (8.9) | 13 (7.5) | 4 (3.9) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.