Mark Williams
Phoenix Suns
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 11.71 | 5.16 | 5.08 | +8.9% |
| Rebounds | 7.88 | 2.79 | 2.69 | -2.0% |
| Assists | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.83 | -8.7% |
| 3PM | 0.02 | 0.1 | 0.04 | -26.9% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 7 (13.3) | 5 (8.1) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2026-04-07 | vs Houston Rockets | 19 (12.3) | 8 (7.9) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-04-05 | @ Chicago Bulls | 14 (11.9) | 8 (8.0) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-03 | @ Sacramento Kings | 10 (11.4) | 9 (8.3) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-26 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 4 (11.1) | 10 (7.8) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Boston Celtics | 2 (11.1) | 5 (8.2) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 6 (12.5) | 5 (8.3) | 0 (1.7) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-21 | vs Orlando Magic | 9 (12.6) | 9 (9.0) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-19 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 11 (12.8) | 10 (9.4) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 6 (12.1) | 1 (9.3) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-10 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 13 (13.9) | 9 (9.9) | 1 (1.7) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 11 (13.5) | 11 (9.3) | 2 (1.7) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Golden State Warriors | 11 (14.2) | 10 (9.1) | 0 (1.8) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 24 (12.2) | 11 (8.0) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-01 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 7 (12.5) | 7 (8.3) | 4 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-30 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 10 (11.6) | 7 (8.8) | 2 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-29 | vs Detroit Pistons | 6 (12.7) | 5 (8.4) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-27 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 27 (12.5) | 6 (9.0) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-25 | vs Miami Heat | 11 (12.8) | 8 (9.1) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-23 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 6 (12.0) | 5 (9.6) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 4 (12.5) | 9 (8.7) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-19 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 16 (12.4) | 8 (8.9) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-17 | @ New York Knicks | 14 (11.7) | 9 (8.6) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-15 | @ Detroit Pistons | 5 (11.2) | 6 (8.5) | 2 (1.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-13 | @ Miami Heat | 18 (11.6) | 14 (8.9) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-11 | vs Washington Wizards | 11 (13.2) | 7 (9.4) | 2 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-09 | vs New York Knicks | 10 (11.5) | 5 (8.7) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 12 (12.2) | 12 (8.9) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-05 | @ Houston Rockets | 4 (10.8) | 8 (7.3) | 1 (1.0) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-04 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 8 (12.7) | 6 (9.2) | 0 (1.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-02 | vs Sacramento Kings | 15 (14.0) | 9 (9.8) | 0 (1.6) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-31 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 2 (13.7) | 9 (9.1) | 2 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-26 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 24 (14.2) | 13 (8.5) | 2 (1.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 18 (13.5) | 9 (8.0) | 2 (1.6) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Golden State Warriors | 4 (13.3) | 5 (8.1) | 1 (1.5) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-18 | vs Golden State Warriors | 6 (14.7) | 4 (9.2) | 1 (1.8) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-14 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 20 (14.9) | 6 (9.0) | 1 (1.6) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-10 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 9 (12.8) | 5 (8.8) | 1 (1.3) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-12-08 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 22 (13.8) | 7 (9.3) | 3 (1.2) | 1 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Houston Rockets | 10 (14.3) | 3 (9.4) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 13 (14.9) | 6 (10.3) | 1 (1.7) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-28 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 (13.6) | 14 (9.2) | 0 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-26 | @ Sacramento Kings | 21 (13.5) | 16 (9.0) | 4 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-23 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 14 (12.6) | 11 (8.4) | 2 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-21 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 19 (11.0) | 8 (8.0) | 0 (1.1) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-18 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 15 (11.8) | 6 (8.4) | 1 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-16 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 8 (13.0) | 4 (9.6) | 1 (1.4) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 10 (13.0) | 4 (9.8) | 2 (1.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-10 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 2 (15.5) | 6 (10.3) | 1 (1.7) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 19 (15.0) | 6 (10.4) | 0 (1.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-06 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 13 (16.4) | 10 (10.7) | 0 (1.7) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-04 | @ Golden State Warriors | 16 (13.1) | 16 (8.6) | 4 (1.2) | 0 (0.0) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.