Matas Buzelis
Chicago Bulls
SF
6-10
209 lb
1 yr exp
2.7
Predictability score
71 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 16.31 | 5.07 | 5.25 | +5.0% |
| Rebounds | 5.93 | 2.03 | 2.04 | +0.3% |
| Assists | 2.13 | 1.29 | 1.26 | -0.3% |
| 3PM | 2.27 | 1.09 | 1.11 | -0.9% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | vs Orlando Magic | 14 (16.7) | 8 (6.3) | 3 (2.6) | 0 (2.2) |
| 2026-04-03 | @ New York Knicks | 11 (16.8) | 6 (6.3) | 0 (2.5) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-04-01 | vs Indiana Pacers | 17 (18.3) | 9 (7.0) | 6 (2.7) | 3 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-30 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 12 (16.8) | 6 (5.7) | 2 (2.2) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-28 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 29 (16.7) | 10 (6.4) | 3 (2.2) | 3 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 15 (16.7) | 9 (5.7) | 0 (1.8) | 1 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 18 (18.0) | 8 (5.7) | 2 (2.4) | 4 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs Houston Rockets | 23 (18.8) | 4 (5.9) | 1 (2.3) | 5 (2.7) |
| 2026-03-19 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 13 (19.6) | 5 (6.1) | 0 (2.5) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-18 | vs Toronto Raptors | 19 (19.8) | 7 (6.2) | 1 (2.7) | 3 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-16 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 29 (19.7) | 7 (6.6) | 1 (3.1) | 5 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-13 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 18 (18.3) | 11 (6.0) | 2 (2.7) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-12 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 22 (17.4) | 6 (5.8) | 1 (2.7) | 4 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-10 | @ Golden State Warriors | 41 (16.2) | 6 (5.8) | 2 (3.0) | 5 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-08 | @ Sacramento Kings | 20 (17.1) | 8 (6.0) | 4 (2.7) | 2 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 11 (16.2) | 5 (5.9) | 3 (2.3) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 20 (16.7) | 7 (6.3) | 3 (2.8) | 4 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-26 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 20 (15.6) | 7 (6.1) | 4 (2.8) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 32 (15.3) | 7 (5.6) | 2 (2.8) | 6 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs New York Knicks | 15 (15.4) | 4 (5.9) | 0 (3.1) | 3 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-21 | vs Detroit Pistons | 15 (14.9) | 6 (5.4) | 3 (2.9) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-02-19 | vs Toronto Raptors | 4 (16.3) | 6 (6.3) | 1 (3.0) | 0 (2.3) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Boston Celtics | 15 (14.9) | 8 (5.5) | 4 (2.6) | 3 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-09 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 18 (16.1) | 4 (5.9) | 1 (2.8) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Denver Nuggets | 21 (16.4) | 8 (5.7) | 3 (2.8) | 4 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-05 | @ Toronto Raptors | 18 (15.5) | 6 (5.7) | 3 (2.5) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 22 (14.4) | 2 (5.9) | 1 (2.5) | 5 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ Miami Heat | 2 (16.0) | 3 (6.0) | 2 (2.7) | 0 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Miami Heat | 21 (14.8) | 8 (6.0) | 4 (2.8) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-29 | vs Miami Heat | 16 (16.3) | 9 (5.7) | 4 (3.0) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Indiana Pacers | 20 (15.8) | 8 (5.4) | 0 (2.5) | 4 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-26 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 11 (15.6) | 5 (4.8) | 4 (2.8) | 2 (2.2) |
| 2026-01-24 | vs Boston Celtics | 14 (15.1) | 8 (5.0) | 5 (2.4) | 4 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-22 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 12 (15.5) | 6 (4.7) | 3 (2.0) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-20 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 21 (15.9) | 2 (5.0) | 4 (2.3) | 4 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-18 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 17 (15.7) | 5 (5.2) | 5 (2.3) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-16 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 15 (15.1) | 6 (5.1) | 3 (2.1) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-14 | vs Utah Jazz | 7 (18.0) | 2 (5.5) | 2 (3.0) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-13 | @ Houston Rockets | 19 (15.4) | 6 (4.5) | 2 (2.3) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-10 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 15 (17.6) | 6 (6.1) | 2 (2.6) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ Detroit Pistons | 20 (16.5) | 3 (5.1) | 1 (2.2) | 4 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-05 | @ Boston Celtics | 26 (15.8) | 3 (5.7) | 2 (2.4) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-03 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 17 (15.9) | 8 (5.4) | 3 (2.2) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2026-01-02 | vs Orlando Magic | 21 (15.0) | 9 (4.7) | 7 (1.7) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-31 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 19 (15.9) | 6 (5.3) | 2 (2.2) | 2 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 13 (14.6) | 5 (5.0) | 2 (1.5) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-27 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 8 (15.2) | 3 (5.3) | 2 (1.5) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-26 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 10 (14.3) | 8 (4.9) | 0 (1.6) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 15 (14.1) | 2 (5.2) | 0 (1.7) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-21 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 28 (14.1) | 3 (5.1) | 0 (1.8) | 7 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-19 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 24 (13.0) | 5 (5.3) | 1 (2.1) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-17 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 9 (13.6) | 1 (5.9) | 1 (2.6) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-14 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 9 (16.6) | 6 (6.3) | 3 (2.9) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-12 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 10 (14.6) | 0 (6.8) | 1 (2.4) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-07 | vs Golden State Warriors | 16 (14.4) | 3 (6.4) | 1 (2.6) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Indiana Pacers | 19 (14.5) | 12 (6.2) | 2 (2.5) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-03 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 14 (14.2) | 5 (5.9) | 3 (2.3) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Orlando Magic | 21 (13.6) | 6 (5.0) | 4 (1.8) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-29 | @ Indiana Pacers | 8 (13.9) | 11 (5.4) | 2 (2.2) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-28 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 8 (14.5) | 2 (5.7) | 3 (1.9) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-24 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 10 (15.0) | 4 (5.4) | 0 (2.2) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-22 | vs Washington Wizards | 13 (15.6) | 6 (6.6) | 1 (2.2) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-21 | vs Miami Heat | 6 (15.0) | 5 (6.3) | 1 (2.2) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-19 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 11 (15.2) | 5 (5.8) | 4 (1.7) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-17 | @ Denver Nuggets | 13 (14.8) | 4 (5.3) | 2 (1.5) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-16 | @ Utah Jazz | 18 (16.5) | 6 (5.8) | 1 (2.2) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ Detroit Pistons | 21 (13.6) | 14 (4.5) | 2 (1.7) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-10 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 15 (14.2) | 5 (4.5) | 0 (1.6) | 2 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 4 (15.7) | 4 (4.9) | 0 (1.9) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-07 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 20 (15.0) | 8 (4.2) | 3 (1.4) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-04 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 10 (16.3) | 5 (4.4) | 1 (1.5) | 2 (2.1) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.