Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Atlanta Hawks
SG
6-5
205 lb
6 yr exp
Virginia Tech
1.7
Predictability score
74 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.64 | 5.32 | 5.54 | +3.9% |
| Rebounds | 3.41 | 1.68 | 1.66 | -0.6% |
| Assists | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.66 | +4.6% |
| 3PM | 3.31 | 1.37 | 1.41 | +0.1% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | vs New York Knicks | 11 (17.7) | 1 (3.6) | 2 (3.5) | 1 (3.0) |
| 2026-04-28 | @ New York Knicks | 16 (17.5) | 0 (3.7) | 3 (3.3) | 4 (3.0) |
| 2026-04-25 | vs New York Knicks | 15 (18.6) | 4 (3.6) | 1 (3.2) | 5 (3.0) |
| 2026-04-23 | vs New York Knicks | 14 (19.1) | 3 (3.7) | 0 (3.6) | 3 (3.0) |
| 2026-04-20 | @ New York Knicks | 9 (20.1) | 5 (3.7) | 6 (3.4) | 2 (3.1) |
| 2026-04-18 | @ New York Knicks | 17 (20.5) | 1 (3.9) | 4 (3.1) | 3 (3.2) |
| 2026-04-10 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 18 (22.0) | 1 (4.0) | 1 (4.5) | 3 (3.2) |
| 2026-04-08 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 25 (21.8) | 4 (3.8) | 2 (4.1) | 4 (3.1) |
| 2026-04-06 | vs New York Knicks | 36 (21.0) | 2 (4.0) | 3 (3.9) | 7 (3.0) |
| 2026-04-03 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 21 (20.3) | 4 (3.9) | 3 (3.6) | 4 (2.9) |
| 2026-04-01 | @ Orlando Magic | 32 (21.6) | 4 (3.9) | 1 (4.0) | 5 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Boston Celtics | 17 (21.1) | 4 (4.1) | 6 (3.9) | 3 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-28 | vs Sacramento Kings | 27 (21.3) | 5 (3.9) | 8 (4.5) | 4 (2.9) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Boston Celtics | 20 (19.9) | 4 (4.1) | 5 (3.2) | 2 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Detroit Pistons | 21 (20.8) | 4 (3.5) | 3 (3.1) | 3 (3.0) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 26 (21.5) | 2 (4.0) | 6 (4.0) | 4 (3.1) |
| 2026-03-21 | vs Golden State Warriors | 17 (21.4) | 2 (4.0) | 1 (3.7) | 2 (2.9) |
| 2026-03-20 | @ Houston Rockets | 21 (20.7) | 4 (3.6) | 4 (3.2) | 1 (3.2) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 22 (21.8) | 1 (3.8) | 2 (3.7) | 4 (3.2) |
| 2026-03-16 | vs Orlando Magic | 41 (20.9) | 7 (3.3) | 5 (3.5) | 9 (3.1) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 20 (20.7) | 3 (3.7) | 1 (3.6) | 3 (3.1) |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 18 (21.5) | 2 (3.5) | 2 (3.9) | 2 (3.0) |
| 2026-03-10 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 29 (20.0) | 2 (3.7) | 3 (3.6) | 5 (3.0) |
| 2026-03-07 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 24 (19.4) | 2 (3.4) | 6 (3.8) | 4 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-04 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 23 (18.6) | 1 (3.5) | 2 (3.6) | 5 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 15 (18.9) | 3 (3.5) | 4 (4.3) | 1 (3.0) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Washington Wizards | 16 (20.1) | 3 (3.9) | 5 (4.9) | 3 (3.0) |
| 2026-02-22 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 17 (20.1) | 3 (4.1) | 6 (4.7) | 3 (2.7) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Miami Heat | 20 (20.2) | 3 (4.1) | 3 (5.0) | 4 (2.8) |
| 2026-02-19 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 14 (21.0) | 3 (4.1) | 4 (4.6) | 2 (2.9) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 10 (21.2) | 3 (4.2) | 4 (4.6) | 1 (2.8) |
| 2026-02-09 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 23 (21.2) | 12 (3.7) | 5 (4.3) | 4 (2.8) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 13 (21.2) | 2 (4.0) | 10 (4.3) | 2 (2.9) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Utah Jazz | 23 (21.8) | 2 (3.6) | 5 (4.6) | 0 (3.3) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Miami Heat | 19 (21.1) | 5 (3.9) | 7 (4.1) | 3 (3.1) |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Indiana Pacers | 21 (20.2) | 3 (3.7) | 5 (3.9) | 3 (2.9) |
| 2026-01-29 | vs Houston Rockets | 20 (19.8) | 5 (3.4) | 1 (3.5) | 3 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Boston Celtics | 21 (19.5) | 1 (3.5) | 3 (4.0) | 5 (3.1) |
| 2026-01-26 | vs Indiana Pacers | 21 (20.5) | 3 (3.9) | 3 (4.9) | 5 (2.8) |
| 2026-01-23 | vs Phoenix Suns | 13 (20.9) | 0 (4.0) | 3 (4.7) | 2 (3.0) |
| 2026-01-21 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 11 (21.1) | 2 (4.1) | 4 (4.5) | 2 (3.0) |
| 2026-01-19 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 32 (20.9) | 6 (4.1) | 6 (4.2) | 7 (2.7) |
| 2026-01-17 | vs Boston Celtics | 18 (21.1) | 2 (4.6) | 6 (4.0) | 4 (2.8) |
| 2026-01-15 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 11 (22.1) | 6 (4.4) | 7 (3.6) | 2 (2.8) |
| 2026-01-13 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 26 (22.0) | 4 (3.7) | 3 (3.7) | 5 (3.1) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Golden State Warriors | 24 (21.0) | 2 (4.3) | 2 (3.4) | 3 (2.9) |
| 2026-01-09 | @ Denver Nuggets | 22 (21.3) | 8 (3.5) | 3 (3.9) | 3 (3.1) |
| 2026-01-07 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 17 (22.4) | 6 (3.6) | 6 (4.7) | 2 (3.3) |
| 2026-01-05 | @ Toronto Raptors | 14 (22.5) | 5 (3.6) | 4 (3.8) | 2 (3.2) |
| 2026-01-03 | @ Toronto Raptors | 31 (21.1) | 4 (3.5) | 3 (3.5) | 6 (3.0) |
| 2026-01-02 | @ New York Knicks | 23 (20.9) | 4 (3.7) | 3 (3.6) | 3 (3.2) |
| 2025-12-31 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 11 (21.4) | 0 (3.5) | 3 (3.7) | 3 (2.9) |
| 2025-12-29 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 30 (20.5) | 4 (3.3) | 5 (3.0) | 6 (2.9) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Chicago Bulls | 21 (22.8) | 1 (4.3) | 2 (4.4) | 2 (3.2) |
| 2025-12-19 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 23 (21.7) | 2 (3.8) | 4 (3.5) | 2 (3.0) |
| 2025-12-14 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 12 (21.4) | 7 (3.7) | 6 (3.5) | 2 (2.9) |
| 2025-12-12 | @ Detroit Pistons | 22 (22.4) | 2 (3.9) | 0 (3.7) | 4 (3.0) |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Washington Wizards | 17 (23.2) | 4 (4.1) | 4 (4.0) | 3 (3.0) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Denver Nuggets | 30 (22.2) | 5 (3.9) | 1 (3.7) | 5 (3.0) |
| 2025-12-03 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 21 (22.6) | 5 (4.3) | 3 (4.1) | 2 (3.1) |
| 2025-12-01 | @ Detroit Pistons | 26 (21.4) | 3 (3.8) | 1 (3.9) | 6 (2.8) |
| 2025-11-30 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 34 (20.0) | 8 (3.7) | 7 (3.7) | 6 (2.6) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 30 (20.6) | 3 (4.1) | 1 (4.4) | 5 (2.6) |
| 2025-11-25 | @ Washington Wizards | 8 (22.1) | 2 (4.3) | 4 (4.2) | 2 (2.7) |
| 2025-11-23 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 23 (22.2) | 5 (3.8) | 4 (4.3) | 3 (2.7) |
| 2025-11-22 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 10 (22.9) | 5 (3.8) | 3 (4.3) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2025-11-20 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 38 (21.0) | 4 (3.8) | 5 (3.7) | 8 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-18 | vs Detroit Pistons | 24 (21.0) | 3 (3.8) | 3 (3.9) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-16 | @ Phoenix Suns | 26 (19.4) | 3 (3.7) | 4 (3.8) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-13 | @ Utah Jazz | 16 (20.2) | 2 (3.6) | 5 (4.0) | 1 (2.2) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ Sacramento Kings | 14 (20.3) | 6 (3.1) | 4 (4.8) | 1 (2.4) |
| 2025-11-07 | vs Toronto Raptors | 20 (19.0) | 2 (3.7) | 3 (4.4) | 3 (2.5) |
| 2025-11-04 | vs Orlando Magic | 20 (19.3) | 1 (3.5) | 2 (3.7) | 3 (2.2) |
| 2025-11-02 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 16 (17.7) | 3 (3.6) | 5 (3.3) | 0 (2.3) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.