Nikola Jokić
Denver Nuggets
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.97 | 6.68 | 6.82 | +4.9% |
| Rebounds | 12.86 | 3.19 | 3.29 | +3.4% |
| Assists | 10.54 | 3.08 | 3.0 | -3.6% |
| 3PM | 1.69 | 1.16 | 1.18 | +0.3% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 28 (27.6) | 9 (12.7) | 10 (9.0) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-27 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 27 (27.7) | 12 (12.6) | 16 (8.7) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-25 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 24 (27.0) | 15 (12.5) | 9 (8.2) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-23 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 27 (25.5) | 15 (12.2) | 3 (8.1) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-20 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 24 (27.0) | 15 (12.1) | 8 (8.3) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-18 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 25 (27.8) | 13 (12.2) | 11 (8.1) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-12 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 23 (26.1) | 8 (12.1) | 1 (8.9) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-04-08 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 14 (28.9) | 16 (12.9) | 10 (10.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-06 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 35 (27.5) | 14 (12.7) | 13 (9.8) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-04 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 40 (26.0) | 8 (13.3) | 13 (9.8) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-01 | @ Utah Jazz | 15 (28.0) | 17 (13.3) | 12 (10.6) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-29 | vs Golden State Warriors | 25 (27.5) | 15 (12.9) | 8 (10.3) | 4 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-27 | vs Utah Jazz | 33 (27.9) | 15 (13.0) | 12 (10.7) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-25 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 23 (26.9) | 21 (12.7) | 19 (10.3) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-24 | @ Phoenix Suns | 23 (25.1) | 17 (12.0) | 17 (9.7) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-22 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 22 (26.8) | 14 (12.5) | 14 (10.0) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-20 | vs Toronto Raptors | 22 (27.6) | 8 (13.2) | 9 (9.7) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 29 (26.9) | 14 (12.5) | 9 (9.7) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-17 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 8 (28.2) | 7 (12.8) | 14 (9.8) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-14 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 24 (28.3) | 16 (12.7) | 14 (9.6) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-12 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 31 (27.1) | 20 (11.8) | 12 (8.6) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-11 | vs Houston Rockets | 16 (29.0) | 12 (11.9) | 13 (9.2) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-09 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 32 (27.1) | 14 (12.6) | 13 (8.8) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-06 | vs New York Knicks | 38 (26.5) | 8 (12.3) | 5 (9.0) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-05 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 28 (28.3) | 12 (12.7) | 13 (9.6) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-02 | @ Utah Jazz | 22 (29.6) | 12 (12.3) | 5 (9.6) | 0 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 35 (29.3) | 13 (12.7) | 9 (8.8) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-27 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 23 (27.9) | 17 (12.7) | 14 (8.2) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-25 | vs Boston Celtics | 30 (27.6) | 12 (12.9) | 6 (9.0) | 4 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-22 | @ Golden State Warriors | 35 (26.8) | 20 (12.1) | 12 (9.0) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-02-20 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 32 (27.4) | 9 (12.1) | 7 (9.3) | 3 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-19 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 22 (26.3) | 17 (12.7) | 6 (9.4) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 26 (26.8) | 15 (12.4) | 11 (9.6) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 22 (26.7) | 14 (12.0) | 11 (9.3) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-07 | @ Chicago Bulls | 22 (27.0) | 14 (12.2) | 17 (8.8) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-04 | @ New York Knicks | 30 (25.1) | 14 (11.2) | 10 (8.4) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Detroit Pistons | 24 (25.1) | 15 (10.7) | 4 (8.3) | 3 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-01 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 16 (26.9) | 7 (12.2) | 8 (8.0) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-30 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 31 (22.3) | 12 (9.1) | 5 (7.4) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-29 | @ Miami Heat | 21 (29.3) | 5 (12.7) | 8 (10.0) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Orlando Magic | 34 (28.0) | 21 (11.6) | 12 (9.7) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-25 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 56 (28.1) | 16 (11.3) | 15 (9.4) | 4 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 29 (27.9) | 7 (12.1) | 14 (9.3) | 5 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-22 | vs Utah Jazz | 14 (29.8) | 13 (12.0) | 13 (9.9) | 1 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-20 | vs Houston Rockets | 25 (29.7) | 7 (11.5) | 5 (9.1) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-12-18 | vs Orlando Magic | 23 (28.8) | 11 (12.0) | 13 (9.2) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-15 | vs Houston Rockets | 39 (29.4) | 15 (11.5) | 10 (9.0) | 5 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-11 | @ Sacramento Kings | 36 (28.7) | 12 (11.6) | 8 (9.9) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-07 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 28 (27.9) | 9 (11.6) | 11 (9.3) | 4 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 40 (26.1) | 9 (11.7) | 8 (9.5) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-03 | @ Indiana Pacers | 24 (27.3) | 8 (12.0) | 13 (9.9) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-01 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 29 (27.3) | 20 (11.8) | 13 (9.6) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-29 | @ Phoenix Suns | 26 (27.5) | 9 (11.7) | 10 (9.6) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-28 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 21 (29.4) | 9 (12.1) | 10 (9.6) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-24 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 17 (30.9) | 10 (11.9) | 16 (9.4) | 3 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-22 | vs Sacramento Kings | 44 (30.5) | 13 (12.9) | 7 (9.7) | 3 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-21 | @ Houston Rockets | 34 (30.3) | 10 (12.2) | 9 (9.2) | 4 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-19 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 28 (30.4) | 11 (13.5) | 12 (9.9) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-17 | vs Chicago Bulls | 36 (29.5) | 18 (13.0) | 13 (9.6) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-15 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 27 (28.6) | 12 (12.9) | 10 (9.4) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 55 (26.0) | 12 (12.8) | 6 (10.0) | 5 (1.3) |
| 2025-11-11 | @ Sacramento Kings | 35 (27.0) | 15 (12.8) | 7 (11.0) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-08 | vs Indiana Pacers | 32 (25.1) | 14 (11.5) | 14 (10.6) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-07 | vs Golden State Warriors | 26 (23.9) | 9 (12.8) | 9 (9.9) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-05 | vs Miami Heat | 33 (23.4) | 15 (13.3) | 16 (9.9) | 2 (1.7) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.