Paolo Banchero
Orlando Magic
PF
6-10
250 lb
3 yr exp
Duke
5.8
Predictability score
72 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.5 | 6.7 | 6.92 | +9.3% |
| Rebounds | 8.36 | 2.59 | 2.69 | +2.2% |
| Assists | 5.4 | 1.88 | 1.87 | +1.1% |
| 3PM | 1.25 | 1.15 | 1.06 | -1.9% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | @ Detroit Pistons | 38 (24.5) | 9 (8.2) | 6 (5.4) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-01 | vs Detroit Pistons | 17 (24.6) | 10 (8.4) | 6 (5.5) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-29 | @ Detroit Pistons | 45 (23.2) | 9 (7.7) | 7 (5.3) | 6 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-27 | vs Detroit Pistons | 18 (22.8) | 8 (8.3) | 4 (5.6) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-25 | vs Detroit Pistons | 25 (22.4) | 12 (8.0) | 9 (5.4) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-22 | @ Detroit Pistons | 18 (22.0) | 6 (7.8) | 8 (4.8) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-19 | @ Detroit Pistons | 23 (22.4) | 9 (8.6) | 4 (4.8) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-12 | @ Boston Celtics | 23 (21.5) | 10 (8.4) | 11 (4.7) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-04-10 | @ Chicago Bulls | 14 (22.7) | 9 (8.6) | 7 (5.2) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-08 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 20 (22.5) | 8 (8.6) | 6 (5.1) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-06 | vs Detroit Pistons | 31 (21.4) | 5 (8.1) | 3 (4.8) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-04-05 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 23 (21.7) | 16 (8.1) | 6 (5.2) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-03 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 10 (23.7) | 7 (8.1) | 5 (5.5) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-01 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 11 (24.9) | 8 (8.5) | 3 (6.0) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-31 | vs Phoenix Suns | 19 (25.5) | 9 (8.1) | 8 (5.8) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-29 | @ Toronto Raptors | 9 (25.2) | 5 (7.8) | 3 (5.8) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-03-26 | vs Sacramento Kings | 30 (26.2) | 9 (8.1) | 7 (6.3) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2026-03-24 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 36 (24.2) | 6 (7.6) | 5 (5.8) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs Indiana Pacers | 39 (23.7) | 4 (9.1) | 6 (6.2) | 4 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-21 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 16 (24.4) | 5 (8.7) | 6 (6.2) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-19 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 20 (23.1) | 3 (8.5) | 7 (5.1) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-17 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 32 (23.3) | 10 (8.8) | 5 (5.0) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-16 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 18 (23.4) | 10 (8.7) | 3 (5.2) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-14 | @ Miami Heat | 27 (25.1) | 8 (8.4) | 7 (5.2) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Washington Wizards | 18 (25.7) | 10 (8.9) | 5 (5.5) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-11 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 25 (24.0) | 8 (8.4) | 7 (5.2) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-08 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 33 (22.9) | 5 (8.8) | 3 (5.3) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-07 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 25 (24.1) | 15 (8.2) | 3 (5.4) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-05 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 16 (24.8) | 12 (8.2) | 6 (5.9) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs Washington Wizards | 37 (23.8) | 5 (9.3) | 6 (6.2) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-01 | vs Detroit Pistons | 24 (23.5) | 11 (8.4) | 2 (5.7) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-26 | vs Houston Rockets | 19 (23.0) | 8 (7.8) | 9 (5.3) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-02-24 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 36 (22.0) | 10 (7.7) | 6 (5.4) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-22 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 16 (22.1) | 7 (8.0) | 8 (4.9) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2026-02-21 | @ Phoenix Suns | 26 (22.5) | 14 (7.6) | 8 (4.6) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2026-02-19 | @ Sacramento Kings | 30 (22.8) | 5 (7.6) | 6 (4.8) | 5 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 17 (22.0) | 4 (8.5) | 2 (5.3) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 11 (23.2) | 9 (8.6) | 3 (5.5) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Utah Jazz | 23 (25.1) | 7 (8.4) | 8 (5.8) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 22 (23.8) | 5 (8.9) | 4 (5.6) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 17 (23.2) | 3 (8.9) | 4 (4.9) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-01 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 19 (23.4) | 10 (8.6) | 4 (5.0) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-30 | vs Toronto Raptors | 20 (24.2) | 9 (8.5) | 6 (5.7) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Miami Heat | 31 (23.8) | 12 (8.7) | 4 (5.9) | 1 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-26 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 37 (23.1) | 10 (8.5) | 4 (5.8) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-24 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 27 (23.4) | 5 (8.9) | 2 (6.1) | 3 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-22 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 23 (23.1) | 7 (8.5) | 5 (5.9) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-18 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 16 (22.3) | 8 (8.7) | 9 (5.5) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 26 (23.4) | 13 (8.9) | 4 (5.6) | 4 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-11 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 23 (23.4) | 8 (9.3) | 8 (6.2) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-01-09 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 14 (23.2) | 11 (9.1) | 7 (5.5) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 30 (23.3) | 14 (8.8) | 6 (5.3) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ Washington Wizards | 14 (23.3) | 4 (9.2) | 4 (5.6) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-04 | vs Indiana Pacers | 28 (22.7) | 12 (9.0) | 5 (5.9) | 3 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-02 | @ Chicago Bulls | 31 (20.9) | 6 (8.3) | 6 (5.0) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-31 | @ Indiana Pacers | 29 (20.6) | 10 (8.3) | 4 (5.7) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-29 | @ Toronto Raptors | 23 (20.3) | 15 (7.9) | 10 (5.2) | 2 (1.2) |
| 2025-12-27 | vs Denver Nuggets | 12 (22.3) | 6 (8.4) | 6 (5.5) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-26 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 13 (22.8) | 5 (8.9) | 2 (5.4) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 12 (23.5) | 6 (8.3) | 3 (5.5) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-22 | @ Golden State Warriors | 21 (22.5) | 12 (8.1) | 7 (4.8) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Utah Jazz | 23 (23.4) | 9 (8.1) | 9 (5.2) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Denver Nuggets | 26 (20.8) | 16 (7.2) | 10 (3.9) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-13 | vs New York Knicks | 25 (18.9) | 8 (7.1) | 3 (4.1) | 0 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-09 | vs Miami Heat | 18 (18.8) | 7 (7.1) | 4 (4.1) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2025-12-07 | @ New York Knicks | 16 (17.5) | 1 (7.5) | 2 (3.7) | 3 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Miami Heat | 9 (19.4) | 6 (7.3) | 2 (3.8) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2025-11-12 | @ New York Knicks | 4 (22.8) | 4 (8.3) | 2 (4.5) | 0 (2.1) |
| 2025-11-10 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 28 (24.5) | 9 (9.2) | 3 (4.9) | 2 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-09 | vs Boston Celtics | 28 (22.3) | 6 (9.5) | 4 (5.2) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-07 | vs Boston Celtics | 15 (23.8) | 9 (9.7) | 4 (4.9) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-04 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 22 (23.9) | 11 (9.0) | 8 (4.6) | 0 (1.9) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.