Rudy Gobert

Minnesota Timberwolves

C 7-1 258 lb 12 yr exp
5.6 Predictability score 82 games started, 2025-26
Season 2025-26 season backtest

Projected vs actual profile

Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.

Model vs naive baseline

The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.

StatAvgModel MAENaive MAESkill
Points 10.46 4.37 4.52 +10.1%
Rebounds 11.3 2.99 3.02 +1.1%
Assists 1.77 1.13 1.11 -0.4%
3PM 0.0 0.0 0.0 -43536628803.8%

Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.

Game by game: predicted vs actual

The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.

Every game he started

DateOpponent PointsReboundsAssists3PM
2026-05-15 vs San Antonio Spurs 0 (9.0) 3 (10.4) 0 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-05-12 @ San Antonio Spurs 4 (9.4) 5 (10.4) 0 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2026-05-10 vs San Antonio Spurs 11 (9.3) 13 (10.8) 4 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2026-05-08 vs San Antonio Spurs 13 (9.1) 7 (11.6) 2 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2026-05-06 @ San Antonio Spurs 5 (8.4) 10 (11.0) 1 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-05-04 @ San Antonio Spurs 7 (8.3) 10 (10.9) 3 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-30 vs Denver Nuggets 10 (10.1) 13 (11.1) 8 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-27 @ Denver Nuggets 3 (9.4) 7 (10.3) 2 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-25 vs Denver Nuggets 4 (11.2) 15 (10.4) 2 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-23 vs Denver Nuggets 10 (11.5) 12 (10.7) 3 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-20 @ Denver Nuggets 2 (12.2) 7 (11.5) 1 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-18 @ Denver Nuggets 17 (12.0) 10 (11.7) 2 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-07 @ Indiana Pacers 5 (12.8) 12 (11.5) 3 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-05 vs Charlotte Hornets 12 (11.3) 10 (11.2) 2 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-03 @ Philadelphia 76ers 5 (11.9) 16 (11.6) 1 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-04-02 @ Detroit Pistons 6 (11.8) 7 (11.4) 1 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-30 @ Dallas Mavericks 14 (14.0) 10 (11.9) 1 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-28 vs Detroit Pistons 14 (12.6) 12 (11.7) 0 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-25 vs Houston Rockets 14 (12.1) 14 (11.5) 1 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-22 @ Boston Celtics 9 (11.5) 14 (10.9) 1 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-20 vs Portland Trail Blazers 18 (11.8) 15 (10.6) 1 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-18 vs Utah Jazz 21 (11.6) 12 (10.8) 0 (2.2) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-17 vs Phoenix Suns 9 (11.5) 19 (10.6) 1 (2.3) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-15 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 2 (11.1) 7 (11.0) 2 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-13 @ Golden State Warriors 18 (10.9) 9 (11.1) 2 (2.1) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-11 @ Los Angeles Clippers 9 (11.9) 5 (11.4) 4 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-10 @ Los Angeles Lakers 3 (11.6) 12 (11.2) 2 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-07 vs Orlando Magic 12 (10.7) 8 (11.6) 0 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-05 vs Toronto Raptors 18 (10.7) 12 (12.0) 5 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-03 vs Memphis Grizzlies 5 (12.2) 12 (13.0) 1 (2.1) 0 (0.0)
2026-03-01 @ Denver Nuggets 7 (11.8) 15 (11.4) 4 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-26 @ Los Angeles Clippers 3 (13.0) 13 (11.1) 1 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-24 @ Portland Trail Blazers 10 (13.4) 19 (10.6) 4 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-20 vs Dallas Mavericks 22 (13.1) 17 (11.2) 1 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-11 vs Portland Trail Blazers 17 (12.7) 8 (10.8) 1 (2.1) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-09 vs Atlanta Hawks 18 (12.3) 6 (11.8) 1 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-08 vs Los Angeles Clippers 10 (12.2) 7 (11.1) 2 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-06 vs New Orleans Pelicans 12 (12.3) 16 (11.3) 2 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-04 @ Toronto Raptors 10 (11.1) 12 (10.9) 2 (1.5) 0 (0.0)
2026-02-02 @ Memphis Grizzlies 7 (11.1) 10 (10.7) 0 (1.5) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-31 @ Memphis Grizzlies 9 (10.7) 16 (10.7) 0 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-29 vs Oklahoma City Thunder 14 (9.9) 11 (10.5) 3 (1.4) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-28 @ Dallas Mavericks 6 (11.6) 6 (11.0) 1 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-26 vs Golden State Warriors 15 (11.4) 17 (11.1) 2 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-25 vs Golden State Warriors 4 (12.3) 5 (11.7) 0 (2.1) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-22 vs Chicago Bulls 10 (11.7) 11 (12.2) 2 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-20 @ Utah Jazz 11 (11.8) 10 (11.6) 0 (2.2) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-16 @ Houston Rockets 10 (9.1) 13 (10.1) 1 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-11 vs San Antonio Spurs 2 (11.7) 14 (11.1) 3 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-10 @ Cleveland Cavaliers 8 (11.3) 12 (11.3) 2 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-08 vs Cleveland Cavaliers 11 (11.4) 13 (11.4) 3 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-06 vs Miami Heat 13 (12.3) 16 (11.2) 1 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-04 @ Washington Wizards 18 (11.3) 14 (11.1) 0 (1.7) 0 (0.0)
2026-01-03 @ Miami Heat 13 (11.4) 12 (11.6) 1 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-31 @ Atlanta Hawks 6 (12.4) 11 (12.2) 3 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-29 @ Chicago Bulls 9 (12.3) 10 (11.6) 1 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-27 vs Brooklyn Nets 6 (12.2) 8 (12.2) 0 (2.3) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-25 @ Denver Nuggets 9 (11.3) 12 (11.6) 0 (2.3) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-23 vs New York Knicks 11 (12.6) 16 (11.5) 2 (2.4) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-21 vs Milwaukee Bucks 11 (12.4) 18 (11.4) 3 (2.3) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-19 vs Oklahoma City Thunder 9 (11.4) 14 (10.7) 1 (2.0) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-17 vs Memphis Grizzlies 16 (12.0) 16 (10.6) 4 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-14 vs Sacramento Kings 7 (13.9) 12 (10.9) 3 (2.1) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-12 @ Golden State Warriors 24 (11.8) 14 (10.2) 1 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-08 vs Phoenix Suns 15 (12.6) 8 (10.2) 1 (2.1) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-06 vs Los Angeles Clippers 4 (13.4) 7 (10.5) 2 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-04 @ New Orleans Pelicans 15 (13.6) 12 (10.1) 3 (1.9) 0 (0.0)
2025-12-02 @ New Orleans Pelicans 26 (11.9) 13 (10.0) 2 (2.1) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-30 vs San Antonio Spurs 8 (11.0) 8 (10.3) 2 (2.3) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-29 vs Boston Celtics 12 (11.4) 8 (11.2) 3 (2.3) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-26 @ Oklahoma City Thunder 5 (10.3) 12 (9.7) 3 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-24 @ Sacramento Kings 11 (11.8) 13 (10.6) 1 (2.2) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-21 @ Phoenix Suns 12 (12.2) 12 (9.6) 4 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-19 vs Washington Wizards 9 (12.9) 15 (10.1) 3 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-17 vs Dallas Mavericks 15 (11.6) 9 (9.8) 4 (1.4) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-15 vs Denver Nuggets 4 (11.8) 6 (9.2) 0 (1.4) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-14 vs Sacramento Kings 11 (12.9) 8 (10.4) 1 (1.5) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-10 @ Utah Jazz 14 (11.2) 12 (9.1) 1 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-09 @ Sacramento Kings 19 (11.5) 12 (9.7) 1 (2.1) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-07 vs Utah Jazz 8 (10.8) 9 (9.0) 2 (1.8) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-05 @ New York Knicks 7 (10.5) 9 (9.1) 0 (1.6) 0 (0.0)
2025-11-03 @ Brooklyn Nets 15 (12.1) 12 (9.1) 1 (2.0) 0 (0.0)

Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.

About this data

The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.