Scottie Barnes
Toronto Raptors
PF
6-7
227 lb
4 yr exp
Florida State
-2.5
Predictability score
81 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.42 | 4.89 | 4.62 | -2.4% |
| Rebounds | 7.44 | 2.7 | 2.6 | -2.5% |
| Assists | 6.26 | 2.45 | 2.42 | -3.1% |
| 3PM | 0.79 | 0.89 | 0.88 | -3.4% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 24 (21.2) | 9 (7.3) | 6 (6.3) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-05-01 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 25 (21.4) | 7 (7.3) | 14 (6.2) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-04-29 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 17 (20.9) | 8 (7.3) | 11 (5.5) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-04-26 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 23 (21.0) | 9 (7.3) | 6 (5.6) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-23 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 33 (20.3) | 5 (7.4) | 11 (5.6) | 3 (1.2) |
| 2026-04-20 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 26 (19.8) | 4 (7.2) | 5 (5.2) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-04-18 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 21 (19.3) | 1 (7.6) | 7 (5.2) | 3 (1.0) |
| 2026-04-12 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 18 (18.6) | 12 (7.7) | 12 (6.1) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-04-10 | @ New York Knicks | 15 (17.8) | 4 (6.6) | 5 (5.4) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-04-09 | vs Miami Heat | 13 (19.7) | 4 (7.1) | 2 (6.8) | 2 (1.0) |
| 2026-04-07 | vs Miami Heat | 25 (20.4) | 8 (7.7) | 5 (7.4) | 2 (1.0) |
| 2026-04-05 | @ Boston Celtics | 10 (19.1) | 6 (7.0) | 8 (6.4) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-04-03 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 10 (20.5) | 3 (7.6) | 6 (7.4) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-04-01 | vs Sacramento Kings | 14 (20.6) | 5 (7.3) | 10 (7.8) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-03-31 | @ Detroit Pistons | 5 (19.1) | 1 (7.2) | 12 (6.2) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-03-29 | vs Orlando Magic | 23 (19.9) | 5 (7.4) | 15 (6.5) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-27 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 23 (19.8) | 6 (8.2) | 12 (6.3) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 9 (19.5) | 8 (8.0) | 12 (5.4) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-03-23 | @ Utah Jazz | 20 (20.0) | 7 (8.1) | 10 (5.6) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-22 | @ Phoenix Suns | 17 (18.4) | 5 (7.2) | 6 (5.0) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-03-20 | @ Denver Nuggets | 15 (18.6) | 8 (6.9) | 8 (4.7) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-18 | @ Chicago Bulls | 18 (19.1) | 7 (7.7) | 3 (5.3) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-03-15 | vs Detroit Pistons | 14 (18.3) | 10 (6.5) | 8 (4.7) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-13 | vs Phoenix Suns | 14 (19.2) | 6 (7.3) | 4 (5.3) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-11 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 9 (19.8) | 6 (6.6) | 4 (4.8) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-03-10 | @ Houston Rockets | 24 (18.5) | 5 (6.5) | 2 (4.3) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 17 (19.3) | 4 (7.2) | 5 (5.1) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-05 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 16 (19.1) | 2 (6.9) | 3 (4.5) | 2 (0.8) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs New York Knicks | 14 (19.2) | 4 (7.4) | 1 (5.2) | 1 (0.8) |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Washington Wizards | 18 (19.5) | 4 (7.9) | 4 (5.4) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-02-25 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 15 (20.5) | 4 (8.3) | 2 (5.5) | 1 (0.7) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 15 (19.3) | 3 (8.5) | 7 (5.0) | 0 (0.7) |
| 2026-02-19 | @ Chicago Bulls | 14 (20.4) | 9 (9.5) | 5 (5.5) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Detroit Pistons | 17 (20.4) | 7 (7.9) | 5 (5.3) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-02-08 | vs Indiana Pacers | 25 (20.2) | 14 (8.4) | 6 (6.2) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-02-05 | vs Chicago Bulls | 13 (20.2) | 6 (8.8) | 7 (5.9) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-02-04 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 22 (19.7) | 10 (8.1) | 8 (5.3) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-02-01 | vs Utah Jazz | 14 (21.1) | 9 (8.5) | 4 (6.1) | 1 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-30 | @ Orlando Magic | 19 (20.6) | 8 (8.1) | 6 (5.6) | 0 (0.8) |
| 2026-01-28 | vs New York Knicks | 17 (20.4) | 10 (8.0) | 5 (5.4) | 1 (0.9) |
| 2026-01-25 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 10 (20.8) | 11 (8.1) | 8 (4.8) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-23 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 15 (22.9) | 9 (7.6) | 4 (6.1) | 0 (0.6) |
| 2026-01-21 | @ Sacramento Kings | 23 (22.5) | 8 (7.9) | 7 (6.1) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Golden State Warriors | 26 (21.6) | 7 (8.2) | 11 (5.7) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-18 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 22 (23.2) | 9 (7.3) | 3 (6.2) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-16 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 24 (21.3) | 7 (7.4) | 6 (5.6) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2026-01-14 | @ Indiana Pacers | 26 (21.1) | 7 (7.8) | 13 (5.4) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-12 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 15 (21.1) | 4 (8.0) | 3 (5.6) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-01-11 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 31 (20.2) | 7 (8.6) | 8 (5.4) | 1 (0.9) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 17 (20.0) | 4 (9.1) | 0 (5.2) | 0 (1.0) |
| 2026-01-05 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 18 (19.7) | 8 (9.7) | 10 (5.8) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2026-01-03 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 20 (20.1) | 7 (10.1) | 4 (5.8) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2025-12-31 | vs Denver Nuggets | 20 (20.1) | 14 (8.4) | 10 (5.0) | 2 (0.8) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs Orlando Magic | 13 (20.4) | 11 (8.3) | 2 (5.3) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2025-12-28 | vs Golden State Warriors | 23 (20.0) | 25 (7.9) | 10 (4.8) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-26 | @ Washington Wizards | 14 (20.1) | 4 (8.0) | 7 (4.8) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-23 | @ Miami Heat | 27 (18.9) | 8 (8.1) | 4 (4.8) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-21 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 6 (19.4) | 6 (7.9) | 1 (4.8) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-20 | vs Boston Celtics | 12 (19.7) | 9 (8.3) | 6 (4.9) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2025-12-18 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 24 (19.0) | 11 (7.8) | 2 (4.9) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-15 | @ Miami Heat | 17 (20.6) | 10 (8.1) | 6 (5.8) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-09 | vs New York Knicks | 13 (20.1) | 5 (7.7) | 4 (5.6) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-07 | vs Boston Celtics | 18 (21.2) | 11 (7.8) | 8 (5.7) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-05 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 13 (21.3) | 3 (8.1) | 5 (5.7) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-04 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 23 (22.1) | 11 (8.0) | 9 (5.7) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-02 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 28 (20.8) | 7 (8.0) | 7 (5.3) | 3 (0.9) |
| 2025-11-30 | @ New York Knicks | 18 (19.9) | 5 (7.2) | 4 (4.3) | 4 (1.0) |
| 2025-11-29 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 30 (21.1) | 12 (7.7) | 5 (4.8) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2025-11-26 | vs Indiana Pacers | 24 (21.2) | 10 (7.5) | 4 (5.4) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2025-11-24 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 18 (19.9) | 11 (7.6) | 6 (4.7) | 0 (0.9) |
| 2025-11-23 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 17 (21.1) | 7 (7.6) | 4 (5.4) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2025-11-21 | vs Washington Wizards | 23 (20.5) | 5 (8.5) | 2 (5.8) | 3 (1.0) |
| 2025-11-19 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 16 (19.5) | 9 (7.5) | 5 (4.9) | 0 (1.1) |
| 2025-11-17 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 16 (20.8) | 6 (8.1) | 6 (5.3) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-15 | @ Indiana Pacers | 14 (21.4) | 11 (7.0) | 6 (5.3) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-13 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 28 (19.8) | 10 (7.5) | 8 (4.8) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2025-11-11 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 15 (21.0) | 11 (7.3) | 5 (4.8) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 18 (20.9) | 5 (7.1) | 4 (4.4) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-07 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 14 (20.6) | 10 (7.0) | 4 (4.7) | 0 (2.2) |
| 2025-11-04 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 23 (20.6) | 3 (8.0) | 6 (4.5) | 3 (1.9) |
| 2025-11-02 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 19 (21.5) | 12 (7.1) | 8 (4.4) | 3 (1.8) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.