Stephon Castle
San Antonio Spurs
PG
6-6
215 lb
1 yr exp
UConn
-0.7
Predictability score
84 games started, 2025-26
Season
2025-26
season backtest
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 16.8 | 5.16 | 4.9 | -0.7% |
| Rebounds | 5.15 | 2.28 | 2.19 | -0.7% |
| Assists | 7.2 | 2.24 | 2.3 | +1.1% |
| 3PM | 1.26 | 1.04 | 0.96 | -3.0% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | vs New York Knicks | 6 (17.5) | 5 (5.6) | 4 (6.3) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-06-10 | @ New York Knicks | 13 (17.4) | 5 (5.6) | 5 (6.1) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-06-08 | @ New York Knicks | 23 (17.6) | 5 (5.6) | 5 (6.3) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-06-05 | vs New York Knicks | 14 (17.7) | 4 (5.7) | 4 (6.5) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-06-03 | vs New York Knicks | 17 (17.5) | 8 (5.5) | 3 (6.6) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-05-30 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 16 (17.7) | 6 (5.1) | 6 (6.1) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-28 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 17 (18.4) | 5 (5.4) | 9 (6.7) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-26 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 24 (18.3) | 5 (5.3) | 6 (6.1) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2026-05-24 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 (19.4) | 3 (5.7) | 6 (6.7) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-22 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 14 (19.2) | 5 (5.8) | 7 (6.5) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-20 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 25 (17.6) | 5 (5.5) | 8 (6.2) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-05-18 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 17 (17.9) | 6 (5.4) | 11 (6.0) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-15 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 32 (17.9) | 11 (5.2) | 6 (6.2) | 5 (1.4) |
| 2026-05-12 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 17 (18.7) | 4 (5.4) | 6 (6.3) | 0 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-10 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 20 (17.3) | 6 (4.9) | 4 (6.2) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-05-08 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 13 (18.5) | 4 (4.8) | 12 (5.9) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-05-06 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 21 (18.9) | 4 (4.9) | 4 (6.2) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-05-04 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 17 (19.6) | 5 (5.1) | 5 (6.4) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-28 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 15 (19.2) | 3 (5.8) | 5 (7.0) | 2 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-26 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 16 (19.2) | 1 (6.0) | 8 (6.6) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2026-04-24 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 33 (18.1) | 2 (6.4) | 5 (6.7) | 3 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-21 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 18 (18.5) | 7 (6.8) | 5 (7.9) | 2 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-19 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 17 (18.7) | 7 (7.1) | 7 (7.8) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2026-04-12 | vs Denver Nuggets | 10 (19.6) | 11 (5.9) | 9 (7.9) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-04-06 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 19 (18.7) | 10 (5.7) | 13 (7.7) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-04-04 | @ Denver Nuggets | 20 (18.0) | 5 (4.9) | 9 (6.9) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-02 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 20 (17.9) | 4 (5.0) | 5 (6.7) | 3 (1.7) |
| 2026-04-01 | @ Golden State Warriors | 15 (18.9) | 7 (5.4) | 11 (6.8) | 2 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Chicago Bulls | 21 (18.8) | 8 (5.8) | 10 (7.0) | 3 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-28 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 22 (17.0) | 10 (4.8) | 10 (6.8) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 15 (17.8) | 3 (5.2) | 9 (7.1) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-23 | @ Miami Heat | 19 (18.0) | 7 (5.6) | 6 (7.4) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-17 | @ Sacramento Kings | 3 (19.7) | 1 (6.0) | 12 (7.3) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-16 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | 23 (18.5) | 7 (5.4) | 8 (6.8) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Charlotte Hornets | 15 (17.9) | 7 (5.6) | 10 (6.9) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2026-03-12 | vs Denver Nuggets | 30 (18.1) | 11 (5.1) | 10 (6.8) | 4 (1.5) |
| 2026-03-10 | vs Boston Celtics | 18 (16.8) | 9 (5.0) | 6 (6.5) | 3 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs Houston Rockets | 23 (17.9) | 3 (5.1) | 5 (6.9) | 3 (1.1) |
| 2026-03-06 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 6 (18.3) | 8 (4.7) | 8 (6.8) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-05 | vs Detroit Pistons | 11 (17.7) | 1 (4.7) | 12 (6.6) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-03-03 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 15 (18.1) | 4 (5.2) | 10 (6.3) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-03-01 | @ New York Knicks | 13 (17.0) | 4 (5.1) | 4 (6.0) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Brooklyn Nets | 18 (17.0) | 2 (5.0) | 5 (6.4) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-25 | @ Toronto Raptors | 13 (16.1) | 3 (5.0) | 5 (6.2) | 2 (1.1) |
| 2026-02-23 | @ Detroit Pistons | 16 (17.2) | 4 (5.1) | 11 (5.9) | 1 (1.0) |
| 2026-02-21 | vs Sacramento Kings | 18 (18.3) | 8 (5.7) | 3 (7.0) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-19 | vs Phoenix Suns | 20 (18.1) | 2 (6.1) | 4 (7.0) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-02-11 | @ Golden State Warriors | 8 (16.9) | 4 (5.6) | 4 (6.7) | 0 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-10 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 2 (19.3) | 1 (5.6) | 7 (7.2) | 0 (1.4) |
| 2026-02-07 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 40 (17.7) | 12 (5.7) | 12 (7.2) | 3 (1.2) |
| 2026-02-04 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 14 (16.5) | 3 (5.1) | 4 (6.5) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 16 (17.3) | 5 (5.4) | 9 (6.6) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-28 | @ Houston Rockets | 16 (17.4) | 5 (4.9) | 6 (6.6) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2026-01-25 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 5 (19.5) | 4 (5.3) | 5 (7.9) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-22 | @ Utah Jazz | 16 (19.4) | 6 (5.3) | 8 (7.8) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-20 | @ Houston Rockets | 13 (17.7) | 7 (4.7) | 8 (7.1) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-19 | vs Utah Jazz | 18 (19.9) | 2 (5.3) | 8 (7.7) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2026-01-17 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | 8 (18.4) | 6 (5.1) | 9 (7.1) | 2 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 19 (18.2) | 1 (5.8) | 10 (6.9) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-13 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 20 (17.3) | 7 (5.2) | 8 (6.4) | 3 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 11 (18.2) | 6 (5.2) | 5 (6.5) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Boston Celtics | 9 (18.2) | 2 (5.7) | 5 (6.6) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2026-01-07 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 15 (19.9) | 5 (5.2) | 4 (7.8) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-06 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 15 (19.8) | 8 (5.2) | 4 (7.2) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2026-01-03 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 16 (19.3) | 5 (5.4) | 9 (7.7) | 0 (1.3) |
| 2026-01-02 | @ Indiana Pacers | 19 (19.8) | 8 (5.2) | 8 (7.7) | 1 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-31 | vs New York Knicks | 5 (20.5) | 2 (5.4) | 7 (7.5) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 15 (20.5) | 4 (5.4) | 8 (7.4) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-12-27 | vs Utah Jazz | 20 (20.9) | 2 (4.9) | 7 (8.0) | 1 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-25 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 (18.2) | 4 (5.0) | 7 (6.1) | 0 (1.9) |
| 2025-12-23 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | 24 (19.2) | 0 (5.7) | 3 (6.9) | 4 (1.7) |
| 2025-12-21 | @ Washington Wizards | 18 (19.9) | 5 (6.4) | 11 (7.0) | 1 (1.3) |
| 2025-12-19 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 17 (20.0) | 2 (6.3) | 7 (6.6) | 1 (1.5) |
| 2025-12-18 | vs Washington Wizards | 17 (21.0) | 2 (7.4) | 7 (7.4) | 1 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-13 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 22 (18.8) | 6 (6.6) | 2 (6.4) | 2 (1.4) |
| 2025-12-10 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 30 (20.6) | 10 (5.7) | 6 (7.0) | 3 (1.1) |
| 2025-12-08 | @ New Orleans Pelicans | 18 (16.6) | 5 (5.3) | 5 (6.4) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2025-11-16 | vs Sacramento Kings | 4 (20.9) | 0 (7.2) | 5 (8.6) | 1 (1.2) |
| 2025-11-14 | vs Golden State Warriors | 13 (21.5) | 9 (6.9) | 6 (8.0) | 0 (1.6) |
| 2025-11-12 | vs Golden State Warriors | 23 (20.4) | 10 (6.4) | 10 (7.4) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-10 | @ Chicago Bulls | 19 (21.7) | 5 (6.6) | 11 (7.3) | 1 (2.0) |
| 2025-11-08 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | 16 (21.4) | 4 (7.3) | 13 (7.3) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-07 | vs Houston Rockets | 14 (20.7) | 6 (6.2) | 13 (6.3) | 0 (1.7) |
| 2025-11-05 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 16 (21.9) | 5 (7.3) | 8 (6.4) | 1 (1.7) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.