Tyler Herro
Miami Heat
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.82 | 5.08 | 5.82 | +14.1% |
| Rebounds | 4.79 | 2.25 | 2.19 | +6.2% |
| Assists | 3.96 | 1.64 | 1.46 | -2.3% |
| 3PM | 2.61 | 1.5 | 1.55 | +7.1% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | vs Atlanta Hawks | 5 (18.9) | 10 (4.4) | 8 (4.9) | 1 (2.6) |
| 2026-04-09 | @ Toronto Raptors | 15 (20.6) | 4 (4.2) | 4 (4.6) | 3 (2.6) |
| 2026-04-07 | @ Toronto Raptors | 14 (21.6) | 5 (4.0) | 6 (4.3) | 1 (2.8) |
| 2026-04-01 | vs Boston Celtics | 18 (19.9) | 3 (4.7) | 7 (3.9) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-30 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 30 (21.5) | 4 (5.1) | 3 (4.7) | 3 (2.7) |
| 2026-03-29 | @ Indiana Pacers | 31 (21.1) | 3 (5.4) | 4 (4.4) | 5 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 11 (21.0) | 3 (5.2) | 5 (4.5) | 1 (2.7) |
| 2026-03-25 | @ Cleveland Cavaliers | 18 (21.2) | 2 (5.6) | 4 (4.9) | 4 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-23 | vs San Antonio Spurs | 18 (20.7) | 5 (5.2) | 2 (4.6) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Houston Rockets | 25 (19.5) | 6 (4.9) | 4 (4.6) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-19 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 21 (20.7) | 8 (4.9) | 5 (5.1) | 4 (2.5) |
| 2026-03-17 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 20 (19.7) | 8 (4.9) | 5 (4.1) | 1 (2.8) |
| 2026-03-14 | vs Orlando Magic | 10 (21.5) | 6 (4.3) | 5 (4.3) | 2 (2.7) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs Detroit Pistons | 25 (20.4) | 6 (3.6) | 3 (4.1) | 4 (2.6) |
| 2026-03-06 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 33 (19.1) | 9 (3.8) | 9 (3.9) | 8 (2.3) |
| 2026-03-05 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 25 (20.7) | 4 (4.0) | 5 (4.2) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-03-03 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 22 (20.2) | 3 (4.1) | 2 (4.6) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-02-28 | vs Houston Rockets | 18 (20.4) | 2 (3.9) | 3 (4.5) | 2 (2.4) |
| 2026-01-15 | vs Boston Celtics | 22 (20.3) | 2 (5.0) | 3 (3.6) | 4 (2.1) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs Phoenix Suns | 23 (20.4) | 2 (5.3) | 3 (3.7) | 2 (1.8) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 19 (20.1) | 2 (5.5) | 3 (3.4) | 1 (2.3) |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Indiana Pacers | 21 (21.6) | 7 (6.3) | 4 (3.6) | 1 (2.1) |
| 2025-12-09 | @ Orlando Magic | 20 (21.8) | 7 (4.3) | 3 (2.1) | 0 (2.8) |
| 2025-12-03 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 20 (23.0) | 4 (5.5) | 0 (3.1) | 2 (2.6) |
| 2025-12-01 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 22 (24.6) | 3 (5.9) | 2 (3.8) | 4 (2.7) |
| 2025-11-29 | vs Detroit Pistons | 24 (25.2) | 4 (6.6) | 2 (4.1) | 6 (1.8) |
| 2025-11-26 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 29 (21.4) | 5 (7.7) | 7 (1.7) | 3 (0.4) |
| 2025-11-24 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 24 (11.9) | 7 (4.6) | 0 (2.7) | 0 (0.7) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.