Zion Williamson
New Orleans Pelicans
Projected vs actual profile
Season averages, axes scaled to an elite starter level.
Model vs naive baseline
The naive forecaster projects the average of season and last-5 games. We publish the comparison for every stat, whichever side wins.
| Stat | Avg | Model MAE | Naive MAE | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.8 | 5.18 | 5.24 | +1.2% |
| Rebounds | 5.54 | 2.23 | 2.09 | -7.4% |
| Assists | 3.14 | 1.64 | 1.5 | -4.6% |
| 3PM | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.03 | -67.5% |
Skill = CRPS improvement of the full probability distribution over a Poisson naive, per game. Points and rebounds drive the headline score; assists and threes are shown for transparency.
Game by game: predicted vs actual
The shaded band is the model's 10th to 90th percentile before tip-off. Dots are what he actually did.
Every game he started
| Date | Opponent | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | vs Orlando Magic | 17 (20.5) | 7 (6.1) | 2 (4.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-04-03 | @ Sacramento Kings | 13 (19.7) | 6 (6.4) | 3 (4.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-04-02 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | 15 (20.0) | 1 (6.5) | 3 (3.7) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-29 | vs Houston Rockets | 18 (20.0) | 4 (6.7) | 3 (3.8) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Toronto Raptors | 22 (20.1) | 7 (6.2) | 4 (3.7) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-26 | @ Detroit Pistons | 21 (19.5) | 6 (5.7) | 2 (3.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-24 | @ New York Knicks | 22 (19.3) | 4 (6.2) | 2 (3.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-21 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | 25 (19.6) | 6 (6.3) | 4 (3.7) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-19 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 15 (19.6) | 5 (5.8) | 2 (3.3) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-18 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | 14 (20.2) | 4 (6.6) | 3 (3.7) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-16 | vs Dallas Mavericks | 27 (21.2) | 4 (7.3) | 1 (4.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-13 | @ Houston Rockets | 21 (19.7) | 5 (6.2) | 1 (3.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-11 | vs Toronto Raptors | 19 (21.0) | 6 (7.2) | 4 (4.0) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-03-08 | vs Washington Wizards | 20 (20.2) | 2 (7.3) | 1 (4.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-06 | @ Phoenix Suns | 19 (19.9) | 10 (5.9) | 3 (3.8) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-03-05 | @ Sacramento Kings | 23 (20.7) | 9 (5.7) | 5 (3.8) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-03-03 | @ Los Angeles Lakers | 24 (19.8) | 4 (5.7) | 0 (3.6) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Utah Jazz | 4 (23.2) | 1 (5.9) | 2 (4.1) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-02-26 | @ Utah Jazz | 20 (22.3) | 4 (6.0) | 4 (4.4) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2026-02-24 | vs Golden State Warriors | 26 (21.2) | 6 (6.8) | 0 (4.4) | 1 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-21 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | 21 (22.0) | 6 (6.2) | 8 (4.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-20 | vs Milwaukee Bucks | 32 (21.5) | 2 (7.9) | 2 (4.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-11 | vs Miami Heat | 25 (21.1) | 4 (6.8) | 3 (4.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-09 | vs Sacramento Kings | 18 (21.8) | 5 (7.2) | 6 (4.5) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-06 | @ Minnesota Timberwolves | 29 (20.0) | 4 (7.1) | 1 (4.1) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-02-04 | @ Milwaukee Bucks | 20 (19.3) | 5 (7.7) | 8 (4.4) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-02-02 | @ Charlotte Hornets | 14 (20.6) | 11 (7.1) | 4 (3.9) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Philadelphia 76ers | 11 (20.4) | 5 (7.3) | 2 (3.9) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-30 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 21 (21.3) | 7 (7.6) | 4 (4.2) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-27 | @ Oklahoma City Thunder | 21 (20.0) | 11 (6.9) | 2 (3.7) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-25 | @ San Antonio Spurs | 24 (21.0) | 10 (6.7) | 4 (3.8) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-23 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | 24 (20.3) | 11 (6.5) | 4 (4.1) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2026-01-21 | vs Detroit Pistons | 4 (20.7) | 4 (6.2) | 0 (4.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-18 | @ Houston Rockets | 20 (22.0) | 6 (5.9) | 4 (4.0) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-16 | @ Indiana Pacers | 27 (21.8) | 6 (6.7) | 7 (4.1) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-14 | vs Brooklyn Nets | 25 (21.1) | 6 (6.4) | 2 (4.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-13 | vs Denver Nuggets | 12 (21.2) | 7 (6.1) | 4 (4.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-11 | @ Orlando Magic | 22 (22.2) | 3 (6.2) | 3 (4.1) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-09 | @ Washington Wizards | 31 (22.0) | 4 (7.1) | 3 (4.3) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-07 | @ Atlanta Hawks | 22 (21.1) | 8 (7.1) | 6 (4.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-06 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | 15 (23.2) | 4 (6.6) | 5 (4.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-04 | @ Miami Heat | 12 (23.6) | 5 (7.2) | 2 (4.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2026-01-02 | vs Portland Trail Blazers | 35 (22.6) | 8 (6.9) | 2 (4.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-31 | @ Chicago Bulls | 31 (21.4) | 7 (6.9) | 3 (4.4) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-12-29 | vs New York Knicks | 32 (21.7) | 5 (6.9) | 2 (4.0) | 0 (0.0) |
| 2025-11-29 | @ Golden State Warriors | 25 (21.0) | 7 (5.5) | 4 (4.4) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-11-26 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | 17 (22.1) | 5 (5.7) | 4 (4.7) | 0 (0.3) |
| 2025-11-24 | vs Chicago Bulls | 29 (20.5) | 1 (6.5) | 2 (4.4) | 0 (0.2) |
| 2025-11-21 | @ Dallas Mavericks | 22 (18.8) | 3 (6.7) | 2 (5.2) | 0 (0.1) |
| 2025-11-19 | vs Denver Nuggets | 14 (17.5) | 6 (5.3) | 5 (3.8) | 0 (0.1) |
Bold = actual, in brackets = model projection before the game. Only games he started are shown: our projections assume the starting five, so a scratch is not a model miss.
About this data
The 2025-26 season is a holdout backtest: the models were trained and validated only on seasons up to 2024-25, then predicted every 2025-26 game. The season is fully out-of-sample, with one caveat: historical features use realized lineups, while live production predicts from the expected starting five, so live accuracy can run marginally lower. Projections and full distributions for today's games are on the NBA player projections page, and the methodology behind every model is on the methodology page.