NBA 2025-2026: Philadelphia 76ers vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Philadelphia 76ers
Home Team
71.0%
VS
Utah Jazz
Away Team
29.0%
Key Prediction Insights
Philadelphia 76ers are the pick to win (71.0% probability). Expected starting fives — Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes, Dominick Barlow, Trendon Watford, Andre Drummond; Utah: Keyonte George, Cody Williams, Elijah Harkless, Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined 235.4 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring, uptempo game. The expected spread (home − away) is 6.44 points, giving a clear edge to the home side — which aligns with Philadelphia being the projected winner.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
235.4
Most likely outcome: 235 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Utah Jazz)
6.4
Most likely outcome: 6 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Philadelphia is 1-2 over the last three games, with a heavy loss to San Antonio (91-131), a defeat at Boston (98-114), and a bounce-back win versus Miami (124-117). The Sixers have flashes of potent offense (124 points vs Miami) but also gave up 131 in San Antonio, showing some inconsistency on defense. Utah is on a three-game skid, narrowly losing to Denver (125-128) then dropping two games to New Orleans (105-115 and 118-129), suggesting struggles on both ends in recent outings.
Looking only at the expected starters, Philadelphia’s five average an offensive rating of about 117.8, a defensive rating of 115.5, and combined average points made of roughly 12.48 per starter. Utah’s projected quintet averages an offensive rating near 109.1, a defensive rating around 122.6, and about 11.13 points made per starter. Those numbers favor Philadelphia on both offense and defense, with Tyrese Maxey (121.4 ORtg, 29.0 PPG) standing out as the primary scoring driver.
Final Prediction
Philadelphia’s edge comes from stronger starter-level offense and defense and the scoring punch of Maxey. Key factor to watch: can Utah’s defense hold up long enough to contain Maxey and force role scorers to beat the Sixers?
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