Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Semifinals

Adrian Mannarino vs Martin Damm: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #69
43%
VS

Martin Damm

Rank: #177
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.7
Predicted Winner: Martin Damm

Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 41.5
ELO Rating: 824.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 414.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.0
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 73.8
Return Rating: 69.0

Martin Damm

Form Index: 64.9
ELO Rating: 497.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 513.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Gea (2-1) hard Montpellier 151 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Montpellier 167 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Pedro Martinez (2-0) hard Montpellier 96 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Rinky Hijikata (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Auckland 80 min

Martin Damm

  • Last Match: vs Luca Nardi (2-0) hard Montpellier 84 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) hard Montpellier 55 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-0) hard Montpellier 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Clement Tabur (2-1) hard Montpellier 173 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Matteo Martineau (2-0) hard Montpellier 109 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adrian Mannarino
vs
0
Martin Damm
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This semifinal in Montpellier (France), played on indoor hard courts at an ATP 250 event, pits Adrian Mannarino against Martin Damm. The model gives Martin Damm the edge — 57.03% chance to win versus 42.97% for Mannarino — with an expected total of about 23.71 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Mannarino enters with a higher ranking (69 vs 177) and a substantially higher Elo (824.90 vs 497.10), indicating more established baseline consistency. His form index is lower (41.51) than Damm’s (64.89), but Mannarino’s surface strength index (7.00) is slightly above Damm’s (5.38). Mannarino has accumulated 414 minutes on court this week, compared with Damm’s 513, so Damm is the more fatigued of the two based on minutes played. The mean serve index difference is pronounced (Mannarino 73.81 vs Damm 97.19), and the mean return index gap is also large (Mannarino 69.00 vs Damm 88.22) — both differences exceed 5 points and are material to match dynamics. Over the last three rounds at Montpellier, Mannarino has been battle-tested with three wins, including two longer three-set encounters (167 and 151 minutes) and one straight-set victory (96 minutes). Damm has advanced with a string of efficient straight-set wins (92, 84, 55 minutes), conserving energy in several matches but still logging more total minutes. These patterns suggest Mannarino’s resilience in extended rallies and close sets, while Damm has combined high efficiency with aggressive serving and returning.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.7 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is about 10.06 total, and the double faults prediction sits near 5.63. On medium-paced hard courts, the predicted aces reflect a moderate serving environment; expected double faults are modest but nontrivial. Given Damm’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces and to shape the overall ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Damm’s superior serve and return indices, together with strong recent form, give him the narrow edge in this matchup despite lower rank and higher fatigue. The key factor to watch will be how often Damm’s serve produces free points and whether Mannarino can convert return opportunities to break serve.

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