Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Pedro Martinez vs Adrian Mannarino: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #71
58%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #69
42%
Expected Total Games: 21.9
Predicted Winner: Pedro Martinez

Ranking Trends

Pedro Martinez

  • Current Rank: #71 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #95 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #66 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #49 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #44 (2025-02-03)

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current Rank: #69 (2026-01-19)
  • 3 Months Ago: #71 (2025-11-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #89 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #126 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #107 (2025-02-03)

Player Metrics

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 1.9
ELO Rating: 643.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.4
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 64.3
Return Rating: 72.3

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 0.0
ELO Rating: 731.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.7
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 7.6
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 95.6

Recent Matches

Pedro Martinez
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) hard Paris 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Basel 109 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Brussels 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Cazaux (1-2) hard Shanghai 181 min

Adrian Mannarino
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Auckland 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Marin Cilic (0-2) hard Hong Kong 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Cazaux (0-2) hard Metz 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (0-2) hard Paris 71 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Pedro Martinez
vs
0
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Pedro Martinez and Adrian Mannarino at the ATP 250 tournament in Montpellier, France, marks the Round of 32 on hard courts. The predicted winner is Pedro Martinez, with a 58.18% chance of victory compared to Mannarino's 41.82%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 21.93.

Match Analysis

Pedro Martinez currently holds the 71st rank and boasts a form index of 1.90, indicating he has struggled recently. His Elo rating stands at 642.99, while his surface strength index is relatively moderate at 4.42. Martinez shows a mean serve index of 64.30 and a mean return index of 72.27, suggesting he possesses decent returning capabilities but may lack punch on serve. On the other hand, Adrian Mannarino is slightly higher in rank at 69 and has an Elo rating of 731.12. His form index is at the lower end, indicating poor recent form, but he excels with a high surface strength index of 8.69, a mean serve index of 97.48, and a mean return index of 95.64. Notably, Mannarino's serve index surpasses Martinez's by over 30 points, indicating a significant advantage in serve power. In their last three matches, both players have struggled to secure wins, with Martinez losing all three and failing to win a set. Similarly, Mannarino has also lost his last three matches, with no sets won. Both players are coming off disappointing performances in recent tournaments, which may impact their confidence going into this match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.9 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

In this match, the expected aces prediction is approximately 8.89, while the expected double faults prediction stands at 6.37. Given that hard courts provide a balanced surface, it is anticipated that both players will achieve a moderate number of aces. Mannarino's significantly higher mean serve index may enable him to produce a greater number of aces compared to Martinez, who has a lower serve rating.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Pedro Martinez is favored to win due to a slight edge in return capabilities and the overall matchup dynamics, despite both players struggling recently. A key factor to watch during the match will be the effectiveness of Mannarino's serve, as his superior serve index could be decisive in determining the outcome.

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