Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Moise Kouame

Rank: #316
25%
VS

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #35
75%
Expected Total Games: 41.6
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

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Ranking Trends

Moise Kouame

  • Current #316 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #397 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #35 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #42 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #81 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #122 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #61 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Moise Kouame

Form Index: 56.3
ELO Rating: 1607.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.9
Clay: 10.2
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 94.1
Return Rating: 92.2

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 51.9
ELO Rating: 1711.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1753.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.0
Clay: 21.9
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Moise Kouame
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Patrick Kypson (0-2) clay Madrid 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (0-2) hard Miami 95 min

Alejandro Tabilo
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-1) clay Rome 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) clay Rome 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-2) clay Madrid 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) clay Madrid 76 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Moise Kouame
vs
0
Alejandro Tabilo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 32 at Roland Garros in Paris on clay sees Alejandro Tabilo favored to progress in this Grand Slam match. The model gives Tabilo a 74.54% chance to win versus 25.46% for Moise Kouame, with a predicted total of about 41.58 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper Tabilo arrives with the clear ranking and Elo advantage (No. 35 and Elo 1711.3) over Kouame (No. 316, Elo 1607.5). Kouame shows a marginally higher form index (56.26 to 51.93) but carries substantially more on-court minutes in this event (348 vs 174), a notable fatigue gap that matters on clay. Tabilo’s surface strength index (21.93) is also higher than Kouame’s (10.20), suggesting the Chilean is better suited to extended rallies and point construction on slow courts. The serving profiles are similar — both post strong mean serve indexes (Kouame 94.14, Tabilo 96.49) so neither has a glaring serve edge. The return picture favors Kouame, however: his mean return index (92.21) is more than five points higher than Tabilo’s (86.43), a difference that could translate into more break opportunities if Kouame can sustain energy levels. Recent form shows Kouame coming through two long Roland Garros matches (including a five-set 174-minute win over Adolfo Vallejo and a three-set win over Marin Cilic) after a loss in Madrid; Tabilo arrives off a straight-sets Roland Garros win over Kamil Majchrzak and mixed results in Rome (a loss to Cerundolo and a win over Pablo Carreño Busta).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.6 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Moise Kouame - Alejandro Tabilo) -3.3 Most likely spread: -4 (Alejandro Tabilo wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match is modest — predicted aces sit at 14.67 — consistent with clay’s slower surface that typically reduces serve winners. The expected double faults are 6.84; on clay the longer rallies and accumulated minutes can elevate unforced serving errors, so the double faults prediction reflects that dynamic. Both players’ high serve indexes suggest some free points will come from serves, but clay will temper the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.7 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Moise Kouame's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (46.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s higher ranking, superior Elo and fresher legs give him the edge on paper, particularly over a long clay encounter. The key factor to watch is Kouame’s return efficiency versus his fatigue: if he can convert return chances early, he can push Tabilo; if fatigue blunts his ability to maintain intensity, Tabilo should control the baseline exchanges.

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