Los Cabos Mexico Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Luis Carlos Alvarez vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Prediction

Luis Carlos Alvarez

Rank: #1000
32%
VS

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #76
68%
Predicted Games Played: 21.0
Predicted Winner: Aleksandar Kovacevic

Ranking Trends

Luis Carlos Alvarez

  • Current Rank: #1000 (None)
  • 3 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 6 Months Ago: #850 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1105 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #1059 (2024-07-15)

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current Rank: #76 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #79 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #109 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #90 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #91 (2024-07-15)

Player Metrics

Luis Carlos Alvarez

Form Index: 37.0
ELO Rating: 49.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1681.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 73.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.5
Clay: 0.2
Grass: 0.2
Serve Rating: 90.1
Return Rating: 75.4

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 541.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1550.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 108.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 85.3

Recent Matches

Luis Carlos Alvarez
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs James McCabe (2-0) hard Los Cabos 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Aleksandar Kovacevic
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hady Habib (2-1) hard Los Cabos 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Bernard Tomic (0-2) grass Mallorca 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (2-0) grass Mallorca 79 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mackenzie McDonald (0-2) grass London 92 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luis Carlos Alvarez
vs
0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Los Cabos tournament in Mexico, Luis Carlos Alvarez faces Aleksandar Kovacevic on hard courts. The match is set to be competitive, but Kovacevic is favored to win with a probability of 68.26%, compared to Alvarez's 31.74%. The predicted total number of games played in this matchup is 21.0.

Match Analysis

Aleksandar Kovacevic currently holds a rank of 76, significantly higher than Luis Carlos Alvarez’s rank of 1000. With an Elo rating of 541.52, Kovacevic's experience on the court is reflected in his superior statistics. His surface strength index stands at 7.41, while Alvarez's is notably lower at 0.46. Additionally, Kovacevic showcases a mean serve index of 96.39, compared to Alvarez's 90.13, indicating a substantial advantage in serving capabilities. The mean return index also favors Kovacevic at 85.28 versus Alvarez's 75.41, further solidifying his edge in both serving and returning games. Both players have had varied recent performances, with Kovacevic winning his last match against Hady Habib in the same tournament, demonstrating resilience by coming back to win after losing a set. Despite a tough loss in his second match at Wimbledon, his overall gameplay has been more consistent. In contrast, Alvarez's recent form has shown promise with a strong win in his last match, but he has not played extensively in recent weeks, which may affect his competitive edge due to lower match fatigue (73 minutes) compared to Kovacevic’s 108 minutes.

Final Prediction

Aleksandar Kovacevic holds a significant advantage due to his higher ranking, better statistics in serving and returning, and recent competitive experience. A key factor to watch will be how Alvarez manages the pressure of facing a higher-ranked opponent, especially given Kovacevic's ability to perform under fatigue in previous matches.