Montpellier France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Moise Kouame vs Aleksandar Kovacevic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Moise Kouame

Rank: #1000
34%
VS

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #56
66%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Aleksandar Kovacevic

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Ranking Trends

Moise Kouame

  • Current #1000 None
  • 3 mo ago #1000 None
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1600 2025-02-03

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current #56 2026-01-19
  • 3 mo ago #62 2025-11-03
  • 6 mo ago #67 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #80 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #75 2025-02-03

Player Metrics

Moise Kouame

Form Index: 34.3
ELO Rating: 71.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1759.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 332.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.0
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 0.0
Serve Rating: 50.8
Return Rating: 27.7

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 17.8
ELO Rating: 935.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1555.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 6.4
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 91.1

Recent Matches

Moise Kouame
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Clement Chidekh (2-1) hard Montpellier 172 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (2-1) hard Montpellier 160 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Pol Martin Tiffon (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) clay Madrid 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Aleksandar Kovacevic
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Moise Kouame
vs
0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Montpellier, France is on indoor hard courts at an ATP 250-level event. Aleksandar Kovacevic is the clear preseason favorite — the model gives him a 65.97% chance to win versus Moise Kouame at 34.03%, with a predicted total of about 22.7 games in the match (suggesting a straight‑sets outcome is most likely).

Match Analysis

Kouame arrives ranked 1000 with a form index of 34.29 and an Elo of 71.04; he carries 332 minutes of court time in this event and shows a surface strength index of 0.0. He has respectable serving numbers relative to his profile (mean serve index ~50.8) but a limited return profile (mean return index ~27.7). Kouame’s recent stretch includes two hard‑court wins in Montpellier (both three‑set affairs of 160–172 minutes) and a three‑set loss on clay, which explains his tournament fatigue. Kovacevic is ranked 56 with a lower form index (17.75) but a far stronger Elo (935.89) and no accumulated fatigue in this tournament. His surface strength index is modest (7.45) but his mean serve (98.46) and mean return (91.10) are markedly higher than Kouame’s — both differences exceed 5 points by a wide margin, and will be decisive. Recent results show three losses on hard courts (Brisbane, Auckland, Australian Open), but with none of the same taxing minutes on court that Kouame has logged.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Moise Kouame - Aleksandar Kovacevic) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is substantial: the model’s predicted aces total is 15.35, reflecting Kovacevic’s very high serve index. The predicted double faults are modest — expected double faults ~3.91 — which fits a server-dominant profile on a medium‑pace hard court. Given the surface and Kovacevic’s serve rating, the predicted aces count is likely to be weighted toward him in particular.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kovacevic’s superior ranking, Elo and dominant serve/return metrics give him the edge despite a lower form index and recent losses. Key factor to watch: Kovacevic’s serving (aces and hold percentage) versus Kouame’s ability to convert break opportunities while under physical load from earlier long matches.

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