Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Aleksandar Vukic vs Patrick Kypson: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Aleksandar Vukic

Rank: #99
42%
VS

Patrick Kypson

Rank: #89
58%
Expected Total Games: 28.0
Predicted Winner: Patrick Kypson

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Player Metrics

Aleksandar Vukic

Form Index: 24.4
ELO Rating: 1423.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1442.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.7
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 14.7
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 90.8

Patrick Kypson

Form Index: 48.0
ELO Rating: 1542.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1527.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 359.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 14.5
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Vukic

  • Last Match: vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (0-2) clay Madrid 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Otto Virtanen (1-2) clay Barcelona 151 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Pedro Martinez (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Taha Baadi (1-2) clay Marrakech 108 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (0-2) hard Miami 55 min

Patrick Kypson

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Vukic
vs
1
Patrick Kypson
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000, round of 128 on clay, Patrick Kypson is narrowly favored over Aleksandar Vukic. The model gives Kypson a 58.08% chance to win versus 41.92% for Vukic, with a predicted total of about 28.04 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kypson enters this match as the higher-ranked player (No. 89) with a notably stronger Elo (1542.29) and a healthier form index (48.04) compared with Vukic (Rank 99, Elo 1423.89, form 24.36). Kypson’s cumulative fatigue is significant (359 minutes on court already in the event), reflecting two long wins in Rome, whereas Vukic shows no tournament fatigue reported. Surface strength indices favor Kypson (14.46) over Vukic (0.0), though both figures are modest, indicating neither is a clay specialist on these metrics. Serve metrics are similar—Vukic’s mean serve index (96.93) and Kypson’s (96.38) are effectively level, so serve firepower is unlikely to be the decisive edge. Vukic’s mean return index (90.80) is materially higher than Kypson’s (85.39), a difference worth noting: Vukic can pressure Kypson’s serve and create more return opportunities. Recent form tells a clear story: Vukic has struggled across three clay events, posting three losses and failing to close matches, while Kypson has built momentum with consecutive wins in Rome (after a loss to a top opponent in Madrid), albeit in long, physically demanding encounters.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 28.0 Most likely outcome: 28 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Aleksandar Vukic versus Patrick Kypson. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Aleksandar Vukic versus Patrick Kypson. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Aleksandar Vukic - Patrick Kypson) +2.2 Most likely spread: +2 (Aleksandar Vukic wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Aleksandar Vukic versus Patrick Kypson. Positive values indicate Aleksandar Vukic winning more games, negative values indicate Patrick Kypson winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Aleksandar Vukic versus Patrick Kypson. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 12.21 for the match, and the predicted double faults total is roughly 3.62. On clay, expected aces typically drop because the slower surface and higher bounce give returners more time, and that likely curbs the ace count here. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating to push the predicted aces much higher, and Kypson’s accumulated minutes could raise the chance of a few more double faults late—so the expected double faults reflect that fatigue risk.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.6 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Aleksandar Vukic versus Patrick Kypson. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Aleksandar Vukic versus Patrick Kypson. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Aleksandar Vukic versus Patrick Kypson. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Aleksandar Vukic versus Patrick Kypson. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Aleksandar Vukic's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.9%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Aleksandar Vukic's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Kypson’s higher Elo, better recent results in Rome and modest edge in surface suitability give him the advantage, despite noticeable court time that could become a factor. Watch Vukic’s returning: if he converts early break chances, the match could tighten and push the contest away from the shorter, predicted game total.

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