Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 64

Alex de Minaur vs Adrian Mannarino: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
91%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #40
9%
Expected Total Games: 34.8
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Why the Model Favors Alex de Minaur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +12.7 Alex de Minaur
Overall strength +10.3 Alex de Minaur
Serve & return game +9.0 Alex de Minaur
Surface fit +6.0 Alex de Minaur
Age +4.4 Alex de Minaur

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 91% for Alex de Minaur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #6 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #7 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #7 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #11 2025-06-30

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #40 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #43 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #69 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #60 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #123 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 53.4
ELO Rating: 1807.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1884.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.0
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 38.3
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 96.4

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 37.7
ELO Rating: 1565.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1584.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.2
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Titouan Droguet (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (0-2) grass Mallorca 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Fery (0-2) grass London 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (2-1) grass London 161 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 80 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Round of 64 at Wimbledon on grass pits Alex de Minaur against Adrian Mannarino in a straight-forward matchup on one of the fastest surfaces in the sport. The model strongly favours de Minaur (90.67% win probability) over Mannarino (9.33%), with a predicted total of about 34.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for de Minaur comes mainly from recent results at this level (+12.7 percentage points) and his overall strength (+10.3). That aligns with the raw numbers: de Minaur is ranked 6, carrying a form index of 53.37 and an Elo of 1807.55, versus Mannarino at rank 40 with a form index of 37.72 and an Elo of 1565.95. Both players show identical cumulative fatigue on court (174 minutes), so freshness is a wash, but de Minaur’s higher surface strength index (38.25 vs 24.13) and the surface-fit factor (+6.0) give him better grass credentials on paper. Serve & return dynamics also favour de Minaur (+9.0). While their mean serve indices are similar, de Minaur’s mean return index (96.43) is markedly higher than Mannarino’s (87.62) — a gap that matters on quick grass where taking time away from the server can swing tight games. The age factor (+4.4) also nudges the model toward de Minaur. Looking at recent form, de Minaur has two wins and a loss in his last three (including a straight-sets win in the Wimbledon opener), while Mannarino’s last three show mixed results: a 3-0 Wimbledon victory bookended by two prior losses.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 34.8 Most likely outcome: 34 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Adrian Mannarino) +4.8 Most likely spread: +4 (Alex de Minaur wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 14.2 total, and the double faults prediction sits at 6.41. On grass — where the ball skids low and big serves are rewarded — the predicted aces are higher than on slower surfaces; this is reflected in the predicted aces total. Neither player posts a dramatically superior serve index, so predicted aces will come from both servers rather than one dominant big-server, while the expected double faults total suggests only occasional loose serves.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.2 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex de Minaur's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (57.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

In short, de Minaur’s edge is driven first and foremost by his recent record at this level and superior overall metrics. The matchup hinge to watch is de Minaur’s return game: if he neutralizes Mannarino’s serve early, the match should run to the model’s forecast.

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