Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Francisco Comesana vs Andrea Pellegrino: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #82
62%
VS

Andrea Pellegrino

Rank: #137
38%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Francisco Comesana

Player Metrics

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 34.3
ELO Rating: 785.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 171.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 6.9
Serve Rating: 80.9
Return Rating: 66.6

Andrea Pellegrino

Form Index: 53.7
ELO Rating: 454.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 371.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.3
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 95.6

Recent Matches

Francisco Comesana

  • Last Match: vs Pedro Martinez (2-1) clay Santiago 171 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Rio 156 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 125 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Patrick Kypson (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min

Andrea Pellegrino

  • Last Match: vs Alex Barrena (2-1) clay Santiago 112 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Daniel Elahi Galan (2-1) clay Santiago 178 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Nicolas Villalon (2-0) clay Santiago 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Vilius Gaubas (0-2) clay Rio 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 98 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Francisco Comesana
vs
0
Andrea Pellegrino
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 clash in Santiago, Chile is on clay at a 250-level event and pits Francisco Comesana against Andrea Pellegrino. The model favors Francisco Comesana to win (61.60% vs 38.40%) with a predicted total of about 22.78 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Comesana arrives ranked 82 with an Elo of 785.04, a moderate form index (34.31) and cumulative tournament fatigue of 171 minutes. His surface strength index (6.73) is slightly higher than Pellegrino’s, and his mean serve index is strong at 80.89. Pellegrino is ranked 137 with a much lower Elo (454.04) but a higher recent form index (53.75) and substantially greater fatigue (371 minutes). Notably, Pellegrino’s mean serve index (98.19) is markedly higher than Comesana’s (difference ≈17.3), and his mean return index (95.55) also exceeds Comesana’s by nearly 29 points — both sizable gaps that will shape rallies. Looking at recent results, Comesana has one win and two losses in his last three matches, most recently beating Pedro Martinez in a 171-minute match in Santiago. Pellegrino has won all three of his most recent matches in Santiago, including a long 178-minute victory over Daniel Elahi Galan, showing momentum through the early rounds. The contrast is clear: Comesana brings higher ranking and Elo, while Pellegrino brings hotter recent form and standout serve/return metrics but arrives considerably more fatigued.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: predicted aces ≈12.97, reflecting clay’s tendency to reduce raw ace counts due to slower ball speed and higher bounce. The double faults prediction is expected double faults ≈5.16; longer rallies and fatigue can increase errors late in matches. Because Pellegrino’s serve rating is significantly higher, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the aces prediction, but the surface and fatigue will temper that advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Comesana’s higher ranking and Elo combined with lower tournament fatigue give him the modeled edge despite Pellegrino’s recent streak and superior serve/return metrics. Key factor to watch: whether Pellegrino’s serve can stay effective under fatigue and force short points, or if Comesana’s consistency and stamina prevail in longer exchanges.

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