Frances Tiafoe

ATP ELO profile · tour-level matches since 2015

ELO 1965 · #5 Hard #5 Clay #22 Grass #18 Last match: Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per match: the player's ELO rating after that match, matches in round order. Ratings are season-scoped: every January the engine re-seeds each player from ATP entry points, then updates after every result. That is why trajectories are shown one season at a time. Hover a point for the match behind it.

Career record

284-218 56.6% in 502 matches

Clay 56-49
Grass 34-24
Hard 194-145

Season by season

SeasonMW-LStartPeakEnd
2026 56 40-16 1648 1965 1965
2025 46 26-20 1756 1825 1726
2024 57 32-25 1731 2033 1828
2023 53 34-19 1700 1879 1748
2022 56 34-22 1649 2003 1938
2021 58 34-24 1600 1883 1847
2020 19 9-10 1605 1703 1667
2019 44 20-24 1608 1803 1644
2018 50 28-22 1566 1784 1671
2017 38 18-20 1555 1731 1714
2016 15 5-10 1529 1608 1480
2015 10 4-6 1500 1517 1486

Recent matches

WeekTournamentOpponentResult
Aug 30, 2026 Us Open · Hard Valentin Vacherot W 3-0
Rei Sakamoto W 3-0
Martin Damm W 3-2
Aug 13, 2026 Cincinnati · Hard Arthur Fils L 1-2
Brandon Nakashima W 2-0
Lorenzo Musetti W 2-0
Felix Auger-Aliassime W 2-0
Learner Tien W 2-1
Lorenzo Sonego W 2-0
Aug 02, 2026 Toronto · Hard Arthur Rinderknech L 0-1

Serve predictions: how close do we get on Frances Tiafoe?

2025 · out-of-sample backtest Aces per match: 8.2 actual vs 8.1 projected
2.76 our average miss per match
3.29 baseline average miss (last five matches)
+16% accuracy edge over the baseline

Comparison covers 41 of the 46 aces projections we made in 2025. A match needs five earlier matches on record before the baseline exists.

The baseline predicts a player's aces as the average of their last five matches. Our model beats it when its projections land closer to what actually happened. Both numbers are the average miss per match, so lower is better, and both are for the selected season only.

Predictability: does Frances Tiafoe follow the script?

On serve · 2026
SeasonMW-LModel hitUpsetsVerdict
2026 56 40-16 64.3% 20 vs 20.3 exp On serve
2025 46 26-20 60.9% 18 vs 18.6 exp On serve
2024 bt 57 32-25 56.1% 25 vs 20.6 exp On serve

An upset = our model's favorite losing. "Upsets" compares how many actually happened in Frances Tiafoe's matches with how many the model expected for that exact schedule. A season-level read (a wild-card season does not carry over year to year). How to read this · full board: most predictable ATP players.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

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Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis-power-rankings/frances-tiafoe">ATP ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)