Camilo Ugo Carabelli

ATP ELO profile · tour-level matches since 2015

ELO 1514 · #203 Hard #388 Clay #68 Grass #605 Last match: Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per match: the player's ELO rating after that match, matches in round order. Ratings are season-scoped: every January the engine re-seeds each player from ATP entry points, then updates after every result. That is why trajectories are shown one season at a time. Hover a point for the match behind it.

Career record

57-77 42.5% in 134 matches

Clay 47-43
Grass 0-6
Hard 10-28

Season by season

SeasonMW-LStartPeakEnd
2026 34 14-20 1603 1656 1514
2025 50 23-27 1562 1701 1571
2024 21 7-14 1544 1620 1409
2023 16 8-8 1545 1584 1493
2022 9 3-6 1530 1602 1489
2021 4 2-2 1512 1544 1511

Recent matches

WeekTournamentOpponentResult
Aug 30, 2026 Us Open · Hard Jan-Lennard Struff L 0-3
Aug 13, 2026 Cincinnati · Hard Miomir Kecmanovic L 0-2
Aug 02, 2026 Toronto · Hard Cameron Norrie L 0-2
Jul 20, 2026 Estoril · Clay Titouan Droguet L 1-2
Jul 13, 2026 Umag · Clay Roman Andres Burruchaga L 1-2
Pablo Carreno Busta W 2-1
Marko Topo W 2-1
Jun 29, 2026 Wimbledon · Grass Daniel Merida L 2-1
May 24, 2026 Roland Garros · Clay Andrey Rublev L 1-3
Emilio Nava W 3-0

Serve predictions: how close do we get on Camilo Ugo Carabelli?

2025 · out-of-sample backtest Aces per match: 3.3 actual vs 3.6 projected
1.95 our average miss per match
2.08 baseline average miss (last five matches)
+6% accuracy edge over the baseline

Comparison covers 39 of the 44 aces projections we made in 2025. A match needs five earlier matches on record before the baseline exists.

The baseline predicts a player's aces as the average of their last five matches. Our model beats it when its projections land closer to what actually happened. Both numbers are the average miss per match, so lower is better, and both are for the selected season only.

Predictability: does Camilo Ugo Carabelli follow the script?

On serve · 2026
SeasonMW-LModel hitUpsetsVerdict
2026 34 14-20 61.8% 13 vs 14.1 exp On serve
2025 44 19-25 52.3% 21 vs 17.7 exp On serve

An upset = our model's favorite losing. "Upsets" compares how many actually happened in Camilo Ugo Carabelli's matches with how many the model expected for that exact schedule. A season-level read (a wild-card season does not carry over year to year). How to read this · full board: most predictable ATP players.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The ATP ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis-power-rankings/camilo-ugo-carabelli">ATP ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)