Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The prediction’s edge for Cerundolo comes mainly from overall strength, surface fit and recent form. Cerundolo holds the higher Elo (1763.85 vs 1633.24) and a substantially higher ranking (27 vs 140), which together contribute 9.1 percentage points toward him; his surface strength index is also stronger (18.30 vs 12.48), adding another 6.0 points. Recent form and results at this level have further tilted the model toward Cerundolo (another ~10.2 points combined), reflecting steady wins in London this week. Fery counters with a noticeable serving and returning profile—this factor nudges the prediction 3.0 percentage points in his favor. His mean serve index (94.94) and mean return index (94.02) are both high and close to Cerundolo’s serve/return numbers (95.38 serve, 90.69 return), so there’s no large single-service advantage on paper. Fatigue is worth flagging: Fery has spent 165 minutes on court in the event versus Cerundolo’s 203, which slightly softens Cerundolo’s edge but does not overturn his ranking and Elo advantages. Both players arrive with comparable recent runs. Fery has two straight grass wins in London (over Mannarino and Toby Samuel) after a long clay match loss at Roland Garros. Cerundolo has also taken two grass wins here (Brooksby, Kovacevic) following a tight clay defeat; his match durations include a longer match of 119 minutes and a shorter 84-minute win.