Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Benjamin Bonzi vs Quentin Halys: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #100
40%
VS

Quentin Halys

Rank: #57
60%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

Why the Model Favors Quentin Halys

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall record & opposition quality +2.7 Quentin Halys
Serve & return game +2.2 Quentin Halys
Overall strength +2.1 Quentin Halys
Recent form +1.4 Quentin Halys
Surface fit +0.9 Benjamin Bonzi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Quentin Halys. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 32.8
ELO Rating: 1561.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 108.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.2
Clay: 13.4
Grass: 13.0
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.9

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 52.7
ELO Rating: 1764.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1754.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.9
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 83.0

Recent Matches

Benjamin Bonzi

Quentin Halys

  • Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) hard Cincinnati 136 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) hard Cincinnati 107 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Cincinnati 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Soonwoo Kwon (2-1) hard Cincinnati 136 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 93 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Benjamin Bonzi
vs
1
Quentin Halys
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Winston-Salem in North Carolina, round of 32 on outdoor hard courts at an ATP 250 event, Quentin Halys is the model favorite. The prediction gives Halys a 60.47 percent chance to win versus Benjamin Bonzi at 39.53 percent. The match is expected to be relatively short, with a projected total of about 24.5 games.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Halys comes mainly from his overall record and opposition quality, with additional weight from serve and return metrics and overall strength. Halys arrives ranked 57 versus Bonzi at 100, with a higher Elo at 1764 compared with Bonzi at 1561. Halys shows a stronger form index at 52.7 versus Bonzi at 32.8, and he carries no fatigue from prior matches while Bonzi already has 108 minutes on court in this tournament. Surface strength slightly favors Bonzi, but that factor is small relative to the others. Serve and return drive match dynamics. Both players have nearly identical mean serve indices (Bonzi 96.77, Halys 96.58), so there is no big serving advantage on index alone. The mean return index, however, favors Bonzi (88.92) over Halys (82.98) by more than five points, which suggests Bonzi can apply return pressure. Recent results show Bonzi winning his last match in Winston-Salem after two earlier hard court losses in Cincinnati and Toronto. Halys won two straight matches in Cincinnati before falling to Alex de Minaur in the most recent outing. Overall, Halys’s steadier recent form and higher-quality opposition wins tilt the probability toward him.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Benjamin Bonzi versus Quentin Halys. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Benjamin Bonzi versus Quentin Halys. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Benjamin Bonzi - Quentin Halys) -1.3 Most likely spread: -2 (Quentin Halys wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Benjamin Bonzi versus Quentin Halys. Positive values indicate Benjamin Bonzi winning more games, negative values indicate Quentin Halys winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Benjamin Bonzi versus Quentin Halys. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction calls for about 17.95 total aces in the match, with predicted aces split at 7.20 for Bonzi and 12.41 for Halys. The expected double faults for the match are 6.05, split roughly 2.67 for Bonzi and 3.40 for Halys. On a medium-paced hard court, these predicted aces reflect a moderately aggressive serving match. Despite similar serve indices, the per player ace projections favor Halys 12.41 to 7.20, which may reflect his trajectory and match-up tendencies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.9 Most likely: 17 aces Per player: Benjamin Bonzi 7.2 + Quentin Halys 12.4
Expected Total Double Faults 6.0 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Benjamin Bonzi 2.7 + Quentin Halys 3.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Benjamin Bonzi versus Quentin Halys. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Benjamin Bonzi versus Quentin Halys. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

🎯 Aces by Player

Benjamin Bonzi

Expected 7.2 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Benjamin Bonzi serves in this match.
Quentin Halys

Expected 12.4 aces

Probability distribution for the aces Quentin Halys serves in this match.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Benjamin Bonzi versus Quentin Halys. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Benjamin Bonzi versus Quentin Halys. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Double Faults by Player

Benjamin Bonzi

Expected 2.7 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Benjamin Bonzi serves in this match.
Quentin Halys

Expected 3.4 double faults

Probability distribution for the double faults Quentin Halys serves in this match.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Benjamin Bonzi's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (34.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Benjamin Bonzi's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Halys’s edge is driven primarily by the model’s top factor, his overall record and quality of opposition. Watch the return battle and Bonzi’s early fatigue as the key variables that could swing the match.

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