Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Benjamin Bonzi vs Titouan Droguet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #104
44%
VS

Titouan Droguet

Rank: #113
56%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Titouan Droguet

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 1577.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1551.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 123.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.4
Clay: 38.7
Grass: 41.1
Serve Rating: 75.6
Return Rating: 69.5

Titouan Droguet

Form Index: 76.4
ELO Rating: 1654.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1803.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 185.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.1
Clay: 41.9
Grass: 41.0
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Benjamin Bonzi

  • Last Match: vs Diego Dedura (2-0) clay Madrid 50 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Darwin Blanch (2-0) clay Madrid 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (0-2) clay Barcelona 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 107 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Rafael Jodar (0-2) hard Miami 75 min

Titouan Droguet

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Benjamin Bonzi
vs
0
Titouan Droguet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Madrid, Spain, the Masters 1000 clay opener in the Round of 128 pits Benjamin Bonzi against Titouan Droguet. The model favors Droguet to advance — 56.0% for Droguet against 44.0% for Bonzi — with a predicted total of about 23.75 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Bonzi arrives as world No. 104 with a form index of 61.83 and an Elo of 1577.3. He has moderate clay credentials (surface strength index 38.73) and a solid serving profile (mean serve index 75.64). His cumulative tournament court time is 123 minutes, reflecting two straight wins in Madrid (50 and 73 minutes) after a loss in Barcelona. Those recent wins were efficient: back-to-back straight-set victories suggest comfort on the conditions but limited deep-match mileage so far. Droguet, ranked 113, posts a stronger form index (76.37) and a higher Elo (1654.13). His surface strength is modestly higher (41.86) but the standout numbers are his mean serve (96.72) and mean return (88.16) indices — both substantially above Bonzi’s (serve difference ≈21 points; return difference ≈19 points). He carries heavier fatigue (185 minutes) after three long Madrid matches (88 and 97 minutes for recent wins, plus a long 126-minute loss previously). That workload could blunt some of his power, but his attack-and-return metrics give him a measurable edge in service games and on the return.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Benjamin Bonzi versus Titouan Droguet. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Benjamin Bonzi versus Titouan Droguet. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Benjamin Bonzi - Titouan Droguet) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Benjamin Bonzi versus Titouan Droguet. Positive values indicate Benjamin Bonzi winning more games, negative values indicate Titouan Droguet winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Benjamin Bonzi versus Titouan Droguet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 12.67 total, while the predicted double faults sit at about 4.38. On clay, expected aces are suppressed and the slower surface tends to produce fewer outright winners on serve, so the predicted aces reflect that; conversely the expected double faults can tick up with longer rallies and fatigue. Given Droguet’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to account for a larger share of the predicted aces, but his heavier minutes increase the chance of some of those expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.7 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Benjamin Bonzi versus Titouan Droguet. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Benjamin Bonzi versus Titouan Droguet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Benjamin Bonzi versus Titouan Droguet. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Benjamin Bonzi versus Titouan Droguet. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Droguet’s superior Elo, recent form and markedly higher serve/return indices give him a narrow edge despite greater fatigue. Watch whether his serve holds up under physical strain — that will be the decisive factor in a tight, relatively short clay duel.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel