Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Ignacio Buse vs Damir Dzumhur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ignacio Buse

Rank: #63
50%
VS

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #76
50%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Damir Dzumhur

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Ranking Trends

Ignacio Buse

  • Current #63 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #104 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #113 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #152 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #216 2025-03-17

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current #76 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #65 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #68 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #68 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #70 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

Ignacio Buse

Form Index: 50.6
ELO Rating: 722.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1543.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 272.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 65.4
Return Rating: 61.5

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 19.6
ELO Rating: 725.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1553.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 6.6
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 93.1

Recent Matches

Ignacio Buse
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Damir Dzumhur
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) hard Indian Wells 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Gael Monfils (0-2) hard Acapulco 112 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jaime Faria (0-2) clay Rio 123 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (1-1) clay Rio 159 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Dellien (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 74 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ignacio Buse
vs
0
Damir Dzumhur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, Round of 128 on hard courts, this clash pits No.63 Ignacio Buse against No.76 Damir Dzumhur in an early-season showdown at a masters_1000 event. The model gives Dzumhur a narrow edge as the predicted winner (50.34%) while Buse is pegged at 49.66%, with an expected total of 24.43 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Buse arrives with the higher ranking (63) and a markedly better form index (50.60) than Dzumhur (19.59). Their Elo ratings are close — Buse 722.13 versus Dzumhur 725.57 — but fatigue separates them: Buse has accumulated 272 minutes on court in this tournament, whereas Dzumhur is fresh with 0 minutes. On hard courts, Buse’s surface strength sits at 2.73 and Dzumhur’s at 6.23; neither number is large in absolute terms, and the gap is modest. Serving and returning numbers favor Dzumhur emphatically: his mean serve index (97.26) exceeds Buse’s (65.42) by more than 30 points, and his mean return index (93.15) similarly outstrips Buse’s (61.47), a difference that should shape the match. Over the last three matches Buse is 2-1, with two wins at Miami (106- and 166-minute matches) and a loss at Indian Wells; he has shown stamina in long matches. Dzumhur’s recent results show three straight losses (Indian Wells, Acapulco, Rio), none of which he won, and his most recent match was a quick 83-minute defeat.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ignacio Buse - Damir Dzumhur) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Damir Dzumhur wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction points to a high serve count for this match: predicted aces are 23.35 for the contest, reflecting Dzumhur’s standout serve metrics. The double faults prediction is an expected double faults total of 6.58, a moderate figure on a medium-paced hard court. Given the surface and Dzumhur’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive the bulk of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 23.4 Most likely: 24 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Dzumhur’s superior serve and return indices give him the slimmest of edges in a matchup otherwise balanced by similar Elo and Buse’s better recent form. The key factor to watch is whether Buse’s match play and accumulated minutes will blunt Dzumhur’s serving punch or whether Dzumhur’s firepower will dictate short, serve-dominated sets.

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