Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Damir Dzumhur vs Pedro Martinez: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #62
44%
VS

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #94
56%
Expected Total Games: 21.4
Predicted Winner: Pedro Martinez

Ranking Trends

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current Rank: #62 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #57 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #60 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #69 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #97 (2025-02-17)

Pedro Martinez

  • Current Rank: #94 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #95 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #64 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #48 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #37 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 29.8
ELO Rating: 785.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1559.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 6.6
Serve Rating: 70.2
Return Rating: 79.7

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 35.6
ELO Rating: 654.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 6.8
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 91.9

Recent Matches

Damir Dzumhur
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Hugo Dellien (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Liam Draxl (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (1-2) hard Adelaide 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (0-2) hard Hong Kong 75 min

Pedro Martinez
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 91 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 123 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Lautaro Midon (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (0-2) hard Montpellier 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Damir Dzumhur
vs
1
Pedro Martinez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Rio, Brazil is a clay-court matchup at a 500-level tournament. Pedro Martinez is the projected winner with a 56.42% chance, while Damir Dzumhur has a 43.58% probability; the model expects about 21.4 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Dzumhur arrives with the higher ranking (62) and a superior Elo (785.71) compared with Martinez (rank 94, Elo 654.14). His form index (29.80) is slightly below Martinez’s (35.65). Both players report zero cumulative fatigue from this event and have nearly identical surface strength indices (Dzumhur 6.70, Martinez 6.80), suggesting neither has a pronounced clay-specific edge in the model. Notably, Martinez’s mean serve index (96.89) is substantially higher than Dzumhur’s (70.16) — a gap of more than 5 points — and his mean return index (91.86) also exceeds Dzumhur’s (79.70) by over 5 points, indicating a clear statistical advantage on both first-strike and return-side metrics. Recent form underpins those numbers: Dzumhur is 1–2 in his last three matches, with a straight-sets win over Liam Draxl but straight-set losses to Francisco Cerundolo and Hugo Dellien (all matches listed). Martinez is 2–1 over his last three, advancing past Lautaro Midon and Juan Manuel Cerundolo before a recent loss to Luciano Darderi. Those results, combined with the serve/return disparities, favor Martinez in baseline exchanges and serve-dependent situations.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 21.4 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 19.38 total predicted aces, while the expected double faults sit at 5.72. On clay — a slower, higher-bouncing surface that typically reduces serve speed after the bounce — predicted aces tend to be lower than on faster courts; nonetheless, Martinez’s significantly higher serve rating should push the predicted aces upward relative to Dzumhur. For double faults prediction, the surface’s longer rallies and physical demands can increase expected double faults, particularly later in matches.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Martinez’s superior serve and return indices give him the statistical edge despite Dzumhur’s higher rank and Elo. The key factor to watch is whether Martinez can convert his serve advantage into free points and force break opportunities; that dynamic will likely decide the match.

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