Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Semifinals

Daniil Medvedev vs Arthur Rinderknech Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #18
61%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #54
39%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Ranking Trends

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current Rank: #18 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #9 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #11 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #5 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #5 (2024-09-30)

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current Rank: #54 (2025-09-29)
  • 3 Months Ago: #72 (2025-06-30)
  • 6 Months Ago: #74 (2025-03-31)
  • 9 Months Ago: #59 (2024-12-30)
  • 12 Months Ago: #62 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 62.7
ELO Rating: 3109.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2082.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 456.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.1
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.8

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 60.3
ELO Rating: 1277.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1606.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 521.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.2
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex De Minaur (2-0) hard Shanghai 113 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-1) hard Shanghai 172 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) hard Shanghai 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Shanghai 60 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-0) hard Beijing 82 min

Arthur Rinderknech
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-0) hard Shanghai 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-0) hard Shanghai 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) hard Shanghai 132 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (1-1) hard Shanghai 104 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Daniil Medvedev
vs
0
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The semifinals of the Shanghai Masters 1000 tournament will showcase a compelling matchup between Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech on hard courts in China. Medvedev is favored to win with a probability of 60.94%, while Rinderknech holds a 39.06% chance. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 23.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 18, presents a solid form index of 62.75 and a notable Elo rating of 3109.90, indicating his competitive edge. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament stands at 456 minutes, which is relatively manageable. Medvedev excels on hard surfaces with a surface strength index of 30.12. His mean serve index of 96.68 surpasses Rinderknech's mean serve index of 96.42 by a narrow margin, while his mean return index of 87.77 also exceeds Rinderknech’s 85.76, suggesting an advantage in returning serves. Arthur Rinderknech, ranked 54, has shown commendable form with a form index of 60.33 and an Elo rating of 1277.34. He carries a higher cumulative fatigue of 521 minutes from matches in the tournament, which may hinder his performance. Rinderknech has been impressive in his recent games as well, securing victories against Felix Auger-Aliassime, Jiri Lehecka, and Alexander Zverev, showcasing a strong competitive spirit. However, his lower surface strength index of 11.25 compared to Medvedev may impact his effectiveness on the hard courts.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev's superior rankings, form, and statistics provide him with a distinct advantage in this semifinal clash. Key factors to observe will be Medvedev's ability to capitalize on his serve and return strengths, as this could dictate the flow and outcome of the match.