Learner Tien

ATP ELO profile · tour-level matches since 2015

ELO 1844 · #17 Hard #9 Clay #32 Grass #65 Last match: Aug 30, 2026

Season ELO trajectory

One point per match: the player's ELO rating after that match, matches in round order. Ratings are season-scoped: every January the engine re-seeds each player from ATP entry points, then updates after every result. That is why trajectories are shown one season at a time. Hover a point for the match behind it.

Career record

71-44 61.7% in 115 matches

Clay 12-10
Grass 6-6
Hard 53-28

Season by season

SeasonMW-LStartPeakEnd
2026 43 28-15 1654 1867 1844
2025 61 38-23 1549 1859 1859
2024 7 5-2 1510 1601 1565
2023 3 0-3 1502 1474 1448
2022 1 0-1 1500 1490 1490

Recent matches

WeekTournamentOpponentResult
Aug 30, 2026 Us Open · Hard Gael Monfils W 3-0
Nuno Borges W 3-0
Aug 13, 2026 Cincinnati · Hard Frances Tiafoe L 1-2
Sebastian Baez W 2-0
Aug 02, 2026 Toronto · Hard Ben Shelton L 0-2
Daniel Merida W 2-0
Thiago Agustin Tirante W 2-0
Tommy Paul W 2-0
Gael Monfils W 2-1
Jul 27, 2026 Washington · Hard Adrian Mannarino L 0-2

Serve predictions: how close do we get on Learner Tien?

2025 · out-of-sample backtest Aces per match: 4.0 actual vs 4.7 projected
2.11 our average miss per match
2.35 baseline average miss (last five matches)
+10% accuracy edge over the baseline

Comparison covers 48 of the 53 aces projections we made in 2025. A match needs five earlier matches on record before the baseline exists.

The baseline predicts a player's aces as the average of their last five matches. Our model beats it when its projections land closer to what actually happened. Both numbers are the average miss per match, so lower is better, and both are for the selected season only.

Predictability: does Learner Tien follow the script?

On serve · 2026
SeasonMW-LModel hitUpsetsVerdict
2026 43 28-15 55.8% 19 vs 15.7 exp On serve
2025 52 30-22 63.5% 19 vs 20.5 exp On serve

An upset = our model's favorite losing. "Upsets" compares how many actually happened in Learner Tien's matches with how many the model expected for that exact schedule. A season-level read (a wild-card season does not carry over year to year). How to read this · full board: most predictable ATP players.

Reuse this data · CC BY 4.0

The ATP ELO ratings dataset is free to reuse, including commercially, under CC BY 4.0. Attribution with a link is the only requirement. Copy-paste credit:

Data: <a href="https://www.predixsport.com/tennis-power-rankings/learner-tien">ATP ELO ratings by Predixsport</a> (CC BY 4.0)