Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

David Goffin vs Remy Bertola Prediction

David Goffin

Rank: #467
42%
VS

Remy Bertola

Rank: #219
58%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Remy Bertola

Why the Model Favors Remy Bertola

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +3.8 Remy Bertola
Age +3.3 Remy Bertola
Serve & return game +2.0 Remy Bertola
Fatigue & recent workload +1.4 David Goffin
Overall strength +0.7 Remy Bertola

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Remy Bertola. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

David Goffin

  • Current #467 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #277 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #236 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #117 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #104 2025-10-20

Remy Bertola

  • Current #219 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #182 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #212 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #254 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #268 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

David Goffin

Form Index: 36.5
ELO Rating: 1466.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1428.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.6
Clay: 12.6
Grass: 1.8
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 88.2

Remy Bertola

Form Index: 38.7
ELO Rating: 1510.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1528.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 275.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 7.9
Grass: 9.4
Serve Rating: 93.4
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

David Goffin
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Guerrieri (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Toby Samuel (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Chun-Hsin Tseng (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (0-2) clay Munich 77 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 164 min

Remy Bertola
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
David Goffin
vs
0
Remy Bertola
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Remy Bertola is a narrow favourite at 58%, with David Goffin given 42%. The forecast calls for 24.3 games.

Match Analysis

Bertola’s higher ranking, 219 compared with Goffin’s 467, gives him a slightly stronger baseline. Both have one win in their last three, but Bertola’s came on this Brussels hard court against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. His subsequent loss to Federico Cina tempers that signal. Bertola is projected to have a slight advantage in the serve-return exchanges. Goffin, however, has spent no time on court at this tournament, while Bertola has already played 275 minutes. That workload is a meaningful counterweight in a match expected to last around 24 games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (David Goffin - Remy Bertola) -1.1 Most likely spread: -2 (Remy Bertola wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bertola is projected for 6.1 aces and 4.3 double faults, compared with 4.9 aces and 3.6 double faults for Goffin. Their serve profiles are close, fitting the relatively narrow ace gap, while Bertola’s higher ace estimate also comes with more double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: David Goffin 4.9 + Remy Bertola 6.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.8 Most likely: 6 double faults Per player: David Goffin 3.6 + Remy Bertola 4.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

David Goffin

Expected 4.9 aces

Remy Bertola

Expected 6.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

David Goffin

Expected 3.6 double faults

Remy Bertola

Expected 4.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (David Goffin's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bertola’s 275 minutes on court are the clearest vulnerability in the forecast. If that workload blunts his serve and return, Goffin has a route to turn the pick around.

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